Monday, October 27, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

Fuel prices in Sweden set to climb regardless of political outcome

Published May 20, 2025
– By Editorial Staff
As the EU has also decided what the minimum tax level on petrol and diesel should be, Swedish politicians do not currently have the option of lowering taxes at will.

Swedes can expect gasoline and diesel prices to rise significantly from 2027, regardless of the political constellation in Sweden.

The reason is the EU's new emissions trading system ETS 2, which forces fuel companies to pay for carbon dioxide emissions – a cost that directly affects consumers.

Regardless of the outcome of the 2026 election, Swedish motorists will face higher fuel prices. Behind the increase is the EU's ETS 2 emissions trading system, which has already been adopted by the Swedish Parliament. The system, which comes into force in 2027, requires companies that sell fossil fuels to purchase emission allowances for every ton of carbon dioxide they emit. The cost is expected to be around SEK 2.50 (€0.23) extra per liter based on today's prices for emission allowances.

Emissions allowances are already being traded on the pre-market, where the price in May was 74 euros per ton of carbon dioxide. According to John Hassler, professor of economics and former government climate advisor, this is a realistic forecast for the future:

– This is probably the best guess of what these emission allowances will cost in the future, he told state television SVT.

EU does not allow tax cuts

Sweden stands out in European comparisons as one of the countries where fuel prices are currently lowest, partly as a result of the government's tax cuts on fuel.

However, the EU has the final say here too, and according to John Hassler, Sweden is already close to the lowest tax level allowed by Brussels for gasoline and diesel, which will make future price adjustments difficult when the new emissions trading system, ETS 2, is introduced.

– We cannot compensate for this by lowering taxes on gasoline and diesel, maybe by 0.5 SEK, but no more than that, he says.

Hundreds of millions to the treasury

At the same time, ETS 2 will generate significant revenue for the government estimated at €915 million annually as the EU distributes the revenue from emission allowances to member states. Hassler believes that the money should be used to mitigate the effects on Swedish households.

There is a good signal value in using this money for, for example, a climate bonus for Swedish households. One could also imagine this money going to people in rural areas or other places where it is difficult to find alternatives to cars.

Green Party spokesperson Amanda Lind has previously stated that the opposition is planning fuel price increases to reduce emissions. However, analysts believe that price increases will happen regardless of which party is in power in Sweden, as this has largely become an EU issue with limited national influence.

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme ETS 2 is an expansion of the previous emissions trading scheme to include the transport and construction sectors. The aim is said to be to push down the use of fossil fuels by making them more expensive. From 2027, fuel suppliers will have to buy allowances for their emissions, a cost that will be directly passed on to the end consumer.

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German companies pressured by Chinese demands for trade secrets

Published today 2:45 pm
– By Editorial Staff
Rare earth metals on display at a geology exhibition in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China, 2011.

German companies are reportedly being forced to hand over sensitive industrial information to China in exchange for time-limited licenses for deliveries of rare earth metals. The demands have raised concerns for Germany's economy and security.

German industry has found itself in a difficult dilemma in the wake of China's growing dominance over the production of rare earth metals, reports Bloomberg.

Since spring 2025, China has introduced extensive export controls and requires companies wishing to import critical raw materials to disclose detailed information about their operations. This can include product images, data on mineral usage, production flows, annual statistics and future forecasts, as well as customer lists.

This has quickly become a requirement for obtaining even temporary import licenses – licenses that often are valid for as short a period as six months.

China today dominates a large portion of global refining and processing of rare earth metals, making many European economies heavily dependent on Chinese supplies. German industry can be said to be particularly exposed.

Difficult trade-offs for German industry

The new regulations have already forced several smaller manufacturers to shut down, while larger players now face difficult trade-offs: disclose sensitive information and risk competitive disadvantages, or risk losing access to raw materials.

Trade relations have also been complicated by China now often requiring business information about customer bases and production chains in license applications. Analysts warn that through such data collection, China can map European companies' vulnerabilities and use them as strategic leverage.

The European dependence on Chinese supplies makes companies vulnerable to pressure, and creates broader concerns for economic stability and national sovereignty.

During 2025, the EU and German industry organizations have intensified pressure on Brussels and Berlin to accelerate the diversification of supply chains and secure alternative raw material sources.

Several initiatives are being launched to strengthen mining operations and semiconductor production in Europe, but experts warn that the path to independence is long.

Ultimately, the situation illustrates how China's control over strategic raw materials can quickly be transformed into an instrument of power in global trade relations. For German companies, the demands represent significant uncertainty regarding trade secrets, competitiveness and supply stability.

Climate alarmist Al Gore takes over struggling Stegra

The exaggerated climate crisis

Published October 23, 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The Stegra factory outside Boden, Sweden is severely delayed and facing an acute financial crisis.

The crisis deepens for Swedish-based steel company Stegra as financier Harald Mix steps down from the chairman position and his investment company Vargas Holding withdraws.The new largest owner will instead be Just Climate, a subsidiary of notorious climate activist Al Gore's environmental investment firm.

This despite the company not yet having started production and facing the risk of running out of cash within a few months

Stegra's largest owner Vargas Holding is now leaving the "climate-smart steel" project following Harald Mix's departure as board chairman. Instead, Just Climate is stepping in as the new principal owner, according to reports to Schibsted-owned Svenska Dagbladet.

Just Climate is an investment company founded by prominent activist Al Gore, and belongs to the asset management firm Generation Investment Management. Since its launch in 2021, the company has attracted approximately €1.3 billion from investors for climate projects, with Stegra being one of them.

Harald Mix will be replaced by Shaun Kingsbury, who according to reports will become the new board chairman for Stegra. However, Mix will continue to work with and advocate for the project.

— My confidence in the company remains unshaken and I will continue to support the company financially as an investor and in my work as an active board member, Harald Mix stated to Dagens Industri.

Al Gore at a World Economic Forum meeting in 2020. Photo: World Economic Forum/CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

Large pension funds behind the fund

Among the investors in Just Climate are two Swedish state-owned AP funds, Second AP Fund and Fourth AP Fund, which together manage tens of billions of euros in pension assets.

The funds' investment in Just Climate is currently estimated at approximately €55 million – a relatively modest amount compared to their total capital, but still a source of concern as the project finds itself in deep crisis.

The fact that Swedish pension money has once again been invested in a high-risk project has sparked reactions, not least after the Northvolt fiasco – a corporate collapse that cost Swedish taxpayers billions.

Financial crisis and comparison with Northvolt

Stegra has not yet begun production of fossil-free steel at the factory to be built in Boden, northern Sweden. The production start is currently postponed until the turn of 2026/2027, while both costs and debts have skyrocketed.

According to reports from Financial Times, Stegra is burning through approximately €270 million per month and risks running out of money within two months unless credit facilities are granted. Major bank Citigroup has reportedly also withdrawn from the financing.

The crisis at Stegra has been compared to the bankruptcy of battery manufacturer Northvolt earlier this year, and a source with insight says: — This is starting to look more and more like Northvolt. It's hard to see anything other than investments being written off.

If the project collapses, Swedish pension savers risk major losses once again. Among others, AMF Pension (a major Swedish pension fund) has invested €165 million in the company, and Third AP Fund is involved as an investor through private equity firm Altor – founded by Mix and Stegra's second-largest owner.

Al Gore – politician, activist and businessman

Al Gore, born March 31, 1948 in Washington D.C., served as US Vice President under Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001. After the controversial 2000 presidential election, he devoted himself entirely to climate issues. The documentary An Inconvenient Truth (2006) made him a global climate alarmist figure, and in 2007 he shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the UN's climate panel, the IPCC.

Parallel to his activism, Gore has built up significant economic interests. He is co-founder of Generation Investment Management, a London-based investment firm focused on "sustainability", and its subsidiary Just Climate, now the largest owner in Stegra, has raised billions of euros from institutional investors, including Swedish pension funds.

Critics question whether Gore's economic involvement undermines the credibility of his activism, while supporters argue that investments in sustainable companies are necessary for the so-called green transition.

Gore is also founder of The Climate Reality Project, which works with opinion formation and education on environmental and climate issues globally. At the same time, he has established close connections to international power networks, including the World Economic Forum and other influential global economic and political platforms. This strengthens his influence, but has also raised questions about how close cooperation with major economic and political interests actually affects his role as an activist and opinion leader.

China surpasses US as Germany’s largest trading partner

The new multipolar world order

Published October 23, 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Terminal Wharf in Bremerhaven, Germany, is one of Europe's largest and most significant ports.

Trump's tariffs have reversed trade patterns. China has now overtaken the US as Germany's most important trading partner – just one year after losing the top position.

China has reclaimed first place as Germany's largest trading partner. During the first eight months of the year, trade with China reached €163.4 billion, compared to €162.8 billion for the US, according to preliminary figures from the German statistical office, reports Reuters.

It's a rapid reversal. The US was Germany's largest trading partner in 2024, breaking an eight-year period of Chinese dominance. The shift came as Germany actively tried to reduce its dependence on China, citing political differences and unfair trade practices.

But Donald Trump's return to the White House and renewed tariffs have changed the dynamics.

Tariffs hit hard

German exports to the US fell by 7.4 percent during the first eight months of the year to €99.6 billion. In August, exports dropped by as much as 23.5 percent compared to the previous year.

There is no question that US tariff and trade policy is an important reason for the decline in sales, says Dirk Jandura, chairman of the German Association for Foreign Trade (BGA).

He notes that American demand for classic German export goods such as cars, machinery and chemicals has decreased.

Chinese imports increase

While exports to China fell by 13.5 percent, imports from China increased by 8.3 percent to €108.8 billion.

The renewed import boom from China is worrying, says Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING. Particularly as data shows that these imports come at dumping prices.

He warns that this increases Germany's dependence on China and could put additional pressure on key industries where China has become a major competitor.

The risk became too great: Swedish companies abandon low-cost countries

Published October 21, 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The moving trucks are heading home. Companies like Ecoride in Gothenburg, Sweden, have brought production back after years in China and Poland.

Geopolitical uncertainty and rising protectionism are prompting Swedish companies to reconsider their foreign operations. After decades of outsourcing to low-cost countries, the trend is now reversing – an increasing number are choosing to relocate production back to Sweden.

Electric bicycle manufacturer Ecoride in Gothenburg, Sweden, is a clear example. After years of production in China and Poland, operations are now consolidated in a factory in Arendal outside Gothenburg.

According to Jan Olhager, professor of strategic production logistics at Lund University in southern Sweden, this development is no coincidence.

— Overall, there are now more reasons to relocate home than before. Not least, geopolitical risks have become a factor of increasing importance when companies decide where to base their manufacturing, he says.

Covid became turning point

Jan Olhager, together with Nordic researchers, has mapped Swedish companies' relocation patterns. The results show clear differences before and after the pandemic. Until 2015, more companies relocated abroad than returned home, but the trend has reversed.

— During the pandemic, companies discovered the risks of having manufacturing far from their home market. Quality problems, delayed shipments, inventory shortages, and soaring transport costs created major problems, Jan Olhager explains.

A recurring pattern is that foreign establishments often become more expensive than calculated. Hidden costs are systematically underestimated, and quality problems ultimately drive many companies to return.

— In the long run, quality is the primary driver for a manufacturing company, Olhager notes.

"Getting closer to retailers and end customers"

Geopolitical tensions have made risk assessments central, while protectionism is growing globally. To offer competitive prices, companies today need to have almost their entire supply chain in the country or region where they operate.

Martin Walleräng, CEO of Ecoride, established an assembly plant in China in 2012, but was forced to relocate to Poland in 2018 when the EU imposed high tariffs on electric bicycles. Just over two years ago, the company moved back home to Arendal.

— Consolidating operations under one roof has created a number of advantages. Everything from product development to building a common corporate culture has been facilitated. Another important advantage is that we get closer to our retailers and end customers, says Martin Walleräng.

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