Sunday, August 3, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

Economist: Tariff turmoil temporary – Swedish economy remains resilient

Donald Trump's USA

Published 7 April 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Claes Hemberg does not believe that Swedes need to feel any long-term economic anxiety about the current customs chaos.
5 minute read

The announcement of Trump’s trade tariffs and the world’s response in the form of counter-tariffs have led to blood-red figures on the stock market and alarms that the world economy may be heading for a historic crash.

The fall continued on Monday, but independent economist Claes Hemberg believes that the panic is greatly exaggerated, that the crisis is temporary and that the Swedish economy as a whole is likely to do relatively well.

Hemberg compares the situation to covid and the lockdown policy five years ago and believes that we are now facing something similar where it is now tariffs instead of lockdowns that create economic uncertainty.

The economist explains that the stock market’s reaction is not due to the poor performance of individual companies, but to uncertainty about future economic developments, interest rates, household finances, international trade and politics.

– For the economy, there is probably no consequence at all, but the stock market is allowed to make a mess of things like this. It’s not strange, it happens. However, economists, politicians and business leaders must agree on how we should work going forward.

– We cannot surprise each other with different punitive tariffs or taxes, but we have to find a way to work together so that we can build relationships for the long term, because that’s how economics works. It is based on trust, not on surprises, shock therapies, false promises or false threats for that matter, he continued on state television SVT.

“A small delay”

As for the Swedish economy, Hemberg believes that the expected economic recovery is likely to be delayed due to the prevailing uncertainty, but that the effect is expected to be short-lived.

– We will probably only have a small delay. Households are waiting to start consuming, buying a new sofa or new clothes for that matter. There have been higher wages just last week, and we see that interest rates will be low going forward here.

– The tariffs are here and causing some disruption, but it’s probably a temporary issue that we’re discussing and will sort out in the near future. It shouldn’t truly affect our economy – just delay the recovery by a few weeks or maybe a month, he speculates.

“Trump is talking nonsense”

He emphasizes that the market unrest should be seen more as a reaction to the surprise element of the tariffs rather than genuine concern over the economy itself. Hemberg also believes that anyone with a 10- or 20-year investment horizon should sit tight and not panic-sell their funds or stocks, despite the steep downturn. This is because today’s developments won’t affect long-term goals.

– Sometimes there’s thunder and storms in our economy, and today is one of those days. That’s when you stay indoors, watch a movie, or maybe bake some cinnamon buns. Don’t go out now, stay home, I’d say.

Trump has also called on the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, something that Hemberg is very critical of.

– He’s quite consistent in claiming and pointing out things that are not a president’s business. The US has an independent central bank, just like Sweden. It’s a public authority responsible for monitoring inflation and the labor market to maintain a rate that supports society, not one influenced by White House politics

“Can’t act like this”

China has responded to Trump’s announcement by imposing its own counter-tariffs, and Hemberg believes that many are inspired by the Chinese and that the EU or Japan may make similar decisions.

– Maybe China is signaling here that they don’t support the kind of politics Trump is promoting and are responding in kind.

– That might have come as a bit of a surprise. But at some point, we also need clear signals back to the White House that you can’t act like this. If we want a society that encourages discussion, mutual trust, and the kind of global trade we so badly need, this won’t do.

“The stock market is a weather vane”

The economist believes that the stock market turmoil will continue for a couple more weeks at most and that the reason is that we simply have not been in this situation before.

– It’s not a big deal if the market jumps around a bit. It does that sometimes, and we just have to accept it. These uncertain days are often very short, intense, and uncomfortable, and they might make our stomachs churn a little.

Hemberg argues that the Swedish krona is unusually strong today and that Swedes will be able to travel more than before, that energy prices are coming down and that there are several other good economic signs.

– Just because there is a person in the White House in the United States who does not understand economics, I do not think we should be worried – even if the stock market is currently turbulent.

– Economics is something that spans over time – many generations, frankly. It’s not something we solve today or this afternoon. The stock market is just a kind of weather vane showing us where things are heading right now – and that fluctuates, and should fluctuate.

“More medicine and bandages needed”

He speculates that Trump may propose new negotiations in response to the counter-tariffs, and that there are likely to be new talks and discussions where all parties agree to back down.

– Just look at what happened five years ago when he was president. It was the same kind of tariff talk then.

– Now the tariffs are broader, tougher, and more intense, so we need more medicine, more bandages, and more talks. It’ll likely take a week or so to sort this out, but we can’t have a policy that’s so surprising or marked by such poor cooperation.

“No big surprises”

With regard to the development of inflation, Claes Hemberg believes that it simply moves in cycles and that it tends to rise at the beginning of the year, but then falls slightly in the spring.

– There are no big surprises. Energy prices are falling, gasoline prices are falling, and yes, things are looking good for our economy. The economy is hopefully gaining momentum here.

– Swedish households are quite cautious after these years of high inflation, and I understand that – that it takes time to win back their confidence again, and the Riksbank is struggling with this. That’s their main goal – to get households to come back to the shops and consume and live a normal life again, he concludes.

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Trump: No trade deal if Canada recognizes Palestine

Donald Trump's USA

Published 31 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Is Donald Trump's loyalty to the state of Israel beginning to affect the US negotiations on the country's trade agreements with other nations? NOTE: The image is an archive photo.
2 minute read

US President Donald Trump threatens to halt a trade deal with Canada if the country recognizes Palestine. The statement comes after Canada’s Prime Minister confirmed plans for recognition at the UN General Assembly this coming September.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Wednesday that the country plans to recognize Palestine as an independent state when the UN General Assembly convenes in September.

Carney highlighted humanitarian arguments and argued that prospects for a two-state solution have disappeared, which other countries – including France and the United Kingdom – have also expressed during the summer.

However, the recognition is conditional and dependent on reforms within the Palestinian Authority as well as promised general elections in 2026 – elections in which Hamas would not be allowed to participate.

Donald Trump reacted immediately and wrote on his Truth Social platform that Canada’s intended recognition would have serious consequences for relations between the countries.

– That will make it very hard for us to make a trade deal with them, Trump declared shortly after Canada’s announcement.

Shaky relations between US and Canada

Trump has previously threatened to impose 35 percent tariffs on Canadian goods from August 1, something that has already caused concern in trade relations between the neighboring countries.

According to American sources, Trump’s move aims to increase pressure on Canada to refrain from recognizing Palestine. The goal is also to defend US trade policy and geopolitical interests at a time of increased tensions surrounding Israel and the war in Gaza.

Mark Carney, (LPC), Canada’s Prime Minister. Photo: World Economic Forum/CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

The trade relationship between the US and Canada is among the world’s largest and has historically been very close, but over the past year several major conflicts regarding tariffs, energy and climate regulations have strained cooperation.

Analysts believe that an American trade halt or high tariffs could have significant economic consequences for Canada’s export industry.

It remains unclear how far the Trump administration is prepared to go, or whether Canada will stick to its planned recognition ahead of the UN meeting in September.

The situation is expected to be closely watched by both other allied countries and international organizations in the coming weeks.

Comment: EU will work on Washington’s terms – with higher prices as a bonus

Donald Trump's USA

Published 30 July 2025
– By Jenny Piper
1 minute read
This is an opinion piece. The author is responsible for the views expressed in the article.

US President Donald Trump has announced that the US and EU have reached a trade agreement whereby EU countries will open their markets for trade with the US without tariffs while EU goods will be subject to 15% import tariffs. The EU also agreed to purchase energy resources from the US worth $750 billion and to buy large quantities of American military equipment.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen looks very pleased in the photo despite having sold out the EU countries, but the woman who has given corruption in Brussels a face is probably satisfied with the reward awaiting her for good cooperation.

This will cost the European population, which is already carrying a heavy economic burden, not to mention European industry that is collapsing in the wake of Brussels’ policies that have made production in the EU too expensive after cutting off cheap electricity from Russia that was the cornerstone of German industry, among others. The US will likely also buy oil from Russia and resell it to the EU at a profit – Putin and Trump have every reason to smile.

The US thus achieved its goal of removing competitor EU from the Russian market, and now the vassals in Europe will work entirely on Washington’s terms – with higher prices as a bonus that we pay.

 

Jenny Piper

All Jenny Piper's articles can be found on her blog.

Gabbard accuses Obama of years-long coup against Trump

Donald Trump's USA

Published 24 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
There is indisputable evidence that shows in detail how President Obama and his national security team directed the creation of an intelligence assessment that they knew was false, according to Gabbard.
3 minute read

US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has released a previously classified report that she claims reveals how former President Barack Obama and his administration deliberately created false information about Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Gabbard describes it as “the most egregious weaponization and politicization of intelligence in American history”.

At a White House press conference on July 23, Gabbard presented the declassified report from the House Intelligence Committee, which was originally produced in September 2020.

The report questions the foundations for the assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin would have wanted to help Donald Trump win the election.

The stunning revelations that we are releasing today should be of concern to every American. This is not about Democrats or Republicans. This has to do with the integrity of our Democratic Republic, Gabbard said at the press conference.

Obama “knew the report was false”

Gabbard accuses the Obama administration of deliberately creating an intelligence assessment that they “knew was false”. She claims they created a fabricated narrative that Russia intervened in the 2016 election to help Trump win.

There is irrefutable evidence that detail how President Obama and his national security team directed the creation of an intelligence community assessment that they knew was false, Gabbard explained.

According to the report, Obama allegedly issued “unusual directives” to expedite the publication of the intelligence assessment before Trump’s inauguration, bypassing normal coordination procedures within the intelligence services.

CIA accused of inadequate sources

The report criticizes the CIA for failing to follow its own standards and for basing its conclusions on what is described as “scant, unclear, and unverifiable fragment of a sentence from one of the substandard reports”.

Gabbard claims that then-CIA Director John Brennan and the intelligence community deliberately suppressed information showing that Putin “held back from leaking compromising material on Hillary Clinton prior to the election”.

Brennan and the intelligence community mischaracterized intelligence and relied on dubious substandard sources to create a contrived false narrative that Putin developed a quote clear preference for Trump, she said.

Claims about Clinton’s health condition

The report describes extensive material that Russia allegedly had about Hillary Clinton, including documents that according to Gabbard showed “psycho-emotional problems, uncontrolled fits of anger, aggression” and claims that Clinton was “on a daily regimen of heavy tranquilizers”.

Gabbard also claims that the intelligence community excluded important information that would have contradicted their main conclusions, including reports that “some Russian intelligence officials were planning for candidate Hillary Clinton’s victory”.

Demands for judicial review

She has demanded a criminal investigation of officials from the Obama era and accuses them of manufacturing a false narrative to discredit a sitting president. Trump has supported her conclusions and demanded prosecution of Obama and senior officials in his administration.

They conspired to subvert the will of the American people who elected Donald Trump in that election in November of 2016 they worked with their partners in the media to promote this lie ultimately to undermine the legitimacy of President Trump and launching what would be a years-long coup against him and his administration, Gabbard said.

The report also claims that internal US intelligence assessments consistently concluded that Russia lacked both the capability and intent to intervene in the 2016 election, but that these findings were deliberately suppressed.

Russia has denied all involvement in American elections, and President Putin has repeatedly said that Moscow does not favor any particular American political candidate.

Trump accuses Obama of “treason” – urges justice department to act

Donald Trump's USA

Published 24 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Donald Trump has made strong accusations against former President Barack Hussein Obama, now accusing him of treason and being responsible for "the Russiagate hoax."
2 minute read

US President Donald Trump has accused his predecessor Barack Obama of “treason”. Trump states that he wants the Justice Department to “go after” Obama and former intelligence chiefs for their alleged conspiracy to “manipulate elections” and stage what Trump calls “the Russiagate hoax”.

Trump made these statements during a meeting with reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday. He was responding to questions about the report that Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released last week, in which she claims that officials under the Obama administration fabricated intelligence to falsely accuse Trump of collusion with Russia.

This was treason. Barack Hussein Obama is the ringleader. Hillary Clinton was right there with him, and so was Sleepy Joe Biden, and so were the rest of them: Comey, Clapper, the whole group, Trump said, referring to former FBI Director James Comey and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.

They tried to rig an election, and they got caught. And then they did rig the election in 2020. And then because I knew I won that election by a lot, I did it a third time, and I won in a landslide, he added.

Report with over 100 documents

Gabbard’s report was “irrefutable proof that Obama was seditious”, according to Trump, who accused his predecessor of “trying to lead a coup”.

— This is the biggest scandal in the history of our country, the president said.

The report, which contains over 100 declassified documents, suggests that Obama’s intelligence chiefs discarded all intelligence assessments that found no Russian involvement, and replaced them with fabricated claims. This paved the way for the Russia investigation, which Gabbard describes as a “multi-year coup” against Trump.

Obama denies the allegations

Obama has strongly denied the allegations and reiterated his position shortly after Trump’s latest statements from the Oval Office. Gabbard’s report contains nothing that “undercuts the widely accepted conclusion that Russia worked to influence the 2016 presidential election but did not successfully manipulate any votes”, Obama’s office said in a statement.

“Out of respect for the office of the presidency, our office does not normally dignify the constant nonsense and misinformation flowing out of this White House with a response. But these claims are outrageous enough to merit one. These bizarre allegations are ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction”, the statement claimed.

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