Monday, July 28, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

American Colonel: “Ukraine a collapsed state”

The war in Ukraine

  • The war in Ukraine has been catastrophic for the Ukrainian people in general and for the Ukrainian army in particular, says the decorated American Colonel Douglas Macgregor, former advisor to the Pentagon.
  • He estimates that as many as 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the battles, while Russia, in comparison, has had minimal losses and has now mobilized up to a million soldiers at the front.
  • The responsibility for the war lies primarily with the US, he says, pointing out that the war could have been easily avoided if they had been willing to accept a neutral Ukraine.
Published 16 October 2023
– By Editorial Staff
Colonel Douglas Macgregor in an interview with Tucker Carlson.
7 minute read

Douglas Macgregor, educated at the prestigious West Point, is a highly decorated, now retired, colonel who among other things served as one of the leading commanders in the Gulf War and was one of the planners of NATO’s bombing campaign in Yugoslavia in 1999. His philosophy on modern warfare is said to have influenced the overarching American strategy during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and he has also served as an advisor to the Pentagon. In relation to the Ukraine war, however, Macgregor has become widely known to the public for his detailed and candid analyses, which offer a different perspective on the proceedings and the situation than what is presented in mainstream media reports.

According to the colonel’s overall analysis, the conflict primarily stems from a reluctance on the part of the West to accept Ukraine’s neutrality. He has drawn parallels between Russia’s reactions to Ukraine’s approach to NATO and the American reactions during the transportation of Soviet missiles to Cuba during the Cuban Crisis. Initially, according to Macgregor, the Russian invasion forces consisted of a limited army of about 40,000 troops, a modest force by military standards intended to shock Ukraine and its Western allies in a final desperate attempt to get them back to the negotiating table. The demands were neutrality for Ukraine, autonomy for the Donbass republics, and recognition of Crimea’s annexation to Russia.

– From the very beginning, Putin and his advisors were never interested in a war with NATO or the U.S. That’s why you’ve had so much incrementalism, this slow grind of movement forward. Defensive operations for a long period of time to build up force, and then continued offensive operations, he says in an interview with Tucker Carlson.

Such a peace agreement, according to Israel’s then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, was very close to being reached during the negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022. However, after pressure from the US and UK, Ukraine withdrew from the negotiations at a late stage, prompting Russia to make a strategic retreat from the Kiev region and focus on taking control of most of the predominantly Russian-speaking areas in the southeast, where they established defensive lines.

– If they had made peace back in March or April, I think the Russians would have retained very little territory, probably Luhansk and Donetsk, the two so called breakaway provinces and I think there had been guarantees for neutrality of Ukraine, and guarantess of equal rights before the law for Russians. That’s what people don’t understand, most of this has to do with abuse meated out to Russians in Ukraine, by the Ukrainian government, summarizes Macgregor, pointing out that the government in question was essentially installed by the USA following the Maidan coup in the country in 2014.

“A disaster for Ukraine”

The sizeable Ukrainian army, which at the outset was estimated by some to be almost ten times the size of the Russian forces, has since then launched an offensive in a devastating manner, according to Macgregor, while Russia primarily operated from a favorable defensive position and in the meantime gradually mobilized up to a million soldiers.

Macgregor in conversation with senior Israeli military officers, March 2020. Photo: Share Alike 4.0 International.

Since the start of the war, NATO and the collective Western world, including Sweden, with the USA in the driver’s seat, have pumped in military aid amounting to trillions in Swedish kronor. Despite this, the Ukrainian army has never really had a chance, Macgregor argues. He estimates that as many as 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in the battles, referring, among other things, to analyses of newly dug graves in satellite images. Meanwhile, he believes, Russian casualties can be estimated to be only a fraction of Ukraine’s – around 50,000 killed in action.

This inhumanity cannot be stressed enough, as the wounds Ukrainian soldiers sustain on the battlefield are injuries most of them will never recover from. We don’t know how many people have already been disabled, but we’re talking about tens of thousands. I’ve heard some say 70,000, others 60,000. It’s insane. They stand no chance of winning, he expresses.

The explanation for Russia’s extreme advantage despite its smaller force initially, according to the colonel, is not just that it’s a much larger country, but primarily that they have developed a modernized form of warfare that mainly relies on advanced space surveillance and extensive artillery support. In practice, the Ukrainian army has had very poor conditions to defend itself, even though it has closely cooperated with the USA. In contrast to the general media portrayal that’s still broadcast on many state channels, he believes the situation for Zelensky’s administration is overall desperate.

Even more money being thrown down a rat hole when he absolutely has no chance of winning – which he never did, and his government is really unpopular in Ukraine. They’re gathering people off the streets, going to the Carpathians, looking for any living person they can find there. They want NATO’s governments to round up Ukrainian men of draft age and send them back to Ukraine to die in the Russian meat grinder, says Macgregor.

“A collapsed state”

Macgregor has long been deeply critical of the US support for the Ukrainian leadership in Kiev and emphasizes that those who have suffered the most from the policy and the failing diplomacy in the end have been the Ukrainian people. He notes that Ukraine has effectively been shattered and that many millions have left the country, seeing it as unlikely that these will return to any significant extent.

Douglas Macgregor interviewed by Tucker Carlson. Photo: facsimile/X.

– The longer this goes on, the more people are senselessly slaughtered and the destruction of Ukraine becomes even greater. Ukraine is now effectively a collapsed state and may be completely erased from the map, he says.

According to Macgregor, Russia, in sharp contrast to the general media image, has made great efforts to minimize civilian casualties. This is partly because the population in the territories where they have operated is largely ethnically Russian and because they also view Ukrainians as a fraternal people. He also points to this as one of the reasons for reports that more and more Ukrainian soldiers have surrendered to the Russian army when they could no longer fight.

– The Soviet army was an exercise in barbarity and brutality, mass rapes and all that. That’s not Russia today. It’s a very different society and state, Macgregor argues.

Rather, according to the colonel, from the Western side, they have not at all had the best interests of the Ukrainian people in mind, where cynical geopolitical motives come into play. His support for Ukraine is largely based on a stubborn hostility towards Russia stemming from Vladimir Putin’s administration, unlike predecessor Boris Yeltsin, managing to establish the country as an independent state with a traditional Orthodox Christian culture. This is something the ruling oligarchy in the West disapproves of as it poses a barrier to accessing Russia’s vast natural resources and is also perceived as a growing threat to their power position in Europe.

It’s probably another reason why so many want to destroy Russia, for it’s the last European state that hasn’t been overrun by foreigners and turned into some sort of polyglot experiment, he adds.

From the American perspective, Ukraine has been seen as a strategic power base and battering ram that they’ve done everything to turn against Russia. Macgregor, for instance, points out that the US, according to recordings of Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, handpicked the Ukrainian government after the coup in connection with the Maidan revolution, when the neutrally oriented president Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown.

“We don’t need Ukraine in NATO”

Macgregor points out that the negotiating room has shrunk significantly for the US-led block and Ukraine since the outbreak of the war.

– The Russians have a series of demands – which at the beginning of the war were suggestions – and Ukraine and the West seem unwilling to consider any of them. Ukraine will not join NATO, period. So Ukraine can remain neutral.

We don’t need Ukraine in NATO. Ukraine as a neutral state is actually a wonderful idea. That’s almost 500 miles between us and the Russians. Is that a bad thing? Not at all.

As part of the effort to stop the war, Douglas Macgregor recently launched the civil rights movement Our Country Our Choice. An initiative across current party lines aimed at uniting the American population and strengthening public opinion against the war in general and the US’s involvement in particular.

 

– Whatever we have set out to achieve has failed, what we need to do now is stop this and come to a settlement that we might not like but it needs to happen and soon, before this thing is out of control, says the colonel, who, however, does not see any signs of interest in peace negotiations from the Western-Ukrainian side, despite the dire situation.

The people bathing in blood are in Kiev and Washington, not in Moscow. This sort of thing is gonna play well until it can’t. We’re gonna see this whole thing collaps and implode, it’s coming, Macgregor states.

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Russia rules out talks between Putin and Zelensky without final agreement

The war in Ukraine

Published 25 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Moscow says no to a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyj before a finished agreement is on the table.
2 minute read

Russia currently rules out a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, unless the parties first agree on the draft of a finished memorandum. This was stated by Vladimir Medinsky, the Kremlin’s lead negotiator in talks with Ukraine, in connection with the latest peace talks in Turkey.

Medinsky, one of the most prominent representatives of the Kremlin in the ongoing peace negotiations, emphasized that a personal meeting between the two leaders is only meaningful if they have already agreed on the terms of a peace agreement and are ready to sign it.

There’s no point in meeting only to begin negotiations from square one, he said, referring to previous summits that in practice prolonged the conflict rather than resolved it.

He also brought up historical cases where heads of state only met to sign already negotiated agreements, not to initiate new processes.

As an example, Medinsky mentioned the Chinese civil war in the 1940s:

Chiang Kai-shek constantly insisted on meeting in person to discuss everything. I believe they met five times, smiled, and posed for photographs, but it did not bring an end to the civil war. The core issues remained unresolved, and the war went on.

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed Medinsky’s line and stated that Russia considers such a meeting relevant only when a final agreement is in place.

The statements come at a time when the question of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is once again being discussed internationally as a possible path to peace in Ukraine.

Parties far apart from each other

Many diplomats and international actors, not least in the West, have for a long time advocated direct talks between the two leaders to break the diplomatic deadlock in the conflict.

Volodymyr Zelenskyj has previously expressed a willingness to meet Putin to discuss peace, but has also set demands including the withdrawal of Russian forces and confirmation of Ukraine’s sovereignty as prerequisites.

Russia, for its part, has consistently demanded that the talks should be based on Russian security interests, including control over certain territories – something that the Ukrainian government rejects.

Medinsky’s and Peskov’s statements underscore that Russia does not see any immediate room for a summit as long as the fundamental prerequisites for peace are not already established, which makes the conditions for direct dialogue continue to be difficult.

Ukraine’s parliament passes law undermining anti-corruption efforts

The war in Ukraine

Published 23 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
SAPO chief Oleksandr Klymenko (left) and NABU director Semen Kryvonos during a press conference in Kyiv after the parliament approved a bill that abolishes the independence of the two agencies.
2 minute read

Ukraine’s parliament adopted legislative amendments on Monday that severely limit the independence of the country’s two central anti-corruption agencies. The opposition and monitoring organizations warn that the reform “destroys” the agencies’ autonomy.

Parliament voted through legislative changes that give the prosecutor general new extensive powers over investigations led by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). The law was adopted with support from 263 parliamentarians, while 13 voted against and 13 abstained, writes The Kyiv Independent.

The legislative amendment still requires Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s signature to take effect, and the president has the option to veto it.

New powers draw criticism

Under the new law, the prosecutor general gains the authority to issue directives for NABU’s investigations or even transfer them to other agencies. The prosecutor general can also delegate SAPO’s powers to other prosecutors and close NABU investigations at the request of the judicial system.

The agencies themselves have reacted strongly to the changes. NABU announced in a statement that the amendments mean “destruction of NABU and SAPO’s independence and practically subordinate their activities to the prosecutor general”.

This is effectively the end of the work of two independent institutions, said Oleksandr Klymenko, head of SAPO, during a press conference after the vote.

NABU’s director, Semen Kryvonos, condemned the legislation and argued that it threatens Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. He also expressed hope that Zelensky would veto the law.

Just one day before the vote, several law enforcement agencies, including the prosecutor general’s office and the security service SBU, conducted extensive searches at NABU and SAPO. Fifteen NABU employees are being investigated for various crimes, from traffic violations to espionage.

Concerns over aid accountability

While anti-corruption efforts face pressure, questions have been raised about accountability for the extensive Western aid to Ukraine. Since February 2024, the West has provided approximately $314 billion in support, with the Pentagon acknowledging that over $1 billion in advanced weapons systems cannot be properly tracked – though without evidence of theft, but rather due to inadequate tracking systems under wartime conditions.

The most documented corruption case to date linked to Ukraine involves Poland, where the EU’s anti-fraud office, OLAF, discovered irregularities worth €91 million in a generator project for Ukraine. Within Ukraine itself, the security service revealed in January 2024 a corruption scandal worth $40 million where the defense ministry paid for shells that were never delivered.

International monitoring organizations maintain that various control mechanisms have been established, but developments regarding NABU and SAPO now raise concerns that future aid could be affected by weakened anti-corruption efforts.

Russian drone swarms break through Ukrainian air defenses at record pace

The war in Ukraine

Published 22 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
A Russian Geran drone strikes a building in Kiev, Ukraine in June.
2 minute read

Russia’s mass drone attacks are becoming increasingly successful. Hit rates have tripled during spring while Ukrainian defenses are overwhelmed by new swarm tactics and modified drones.

Russia’s intensified drone attacks against Ukraine are becoming increasingly successful, with drones hitting their targets in three times as many cases as before, according to official data from the Ukrainian air force.

Mass attacks with Shahed drones, originally of Iranian design but now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine’s severely strained air defenses. According to data from the Ukrainian air force, an average of about 15 percent of the drones penetrated defense lines between April and June – a sharp increase from 5 percent during the previous three months.

During the night leading to Monday, Russia conducted an extensive attack with 426 Shahed drones. On July 9, a record attack was seen with 728 drones and decoy drones, as well as several cruise missiles.

New tactics overwhelm defenses

Russia’s tactical innovations have included modifications that allow the drones to fly faster and at higher altitudes, beyond the range of the truck-mounted machine guns that Ukraine typically uses.

The problem is not that the Ukraine air defense is getting worse. Instead, what we see is that new swarming tactics and drones are now flying in higher altitude, which makes them more effective, says Yasir Atalan from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Russia has named its modified drones Geran, which means geranium in Russian. Geran-3, a turbine-powered variant that can fly up to 800 kilometers per hour, has been used against Kiev in recent weeks.

Ukraine develops countermeasures

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 10 that Ukraine is “already shooting down dozens of Shahed drones” with its domestically manufactured interceptor drones. Earlier in the month, he announced an agreement with the American company Swift Beat to co-produce hundreds of thousands of drones.

Our air defense forces are achieving good results with the new interceptor drones and they are performing particularly well, having shot down hundreds of Russian-Iranian Shaheds in a week, Zelenskyy said last week.

Andrew Turner, former air marshal in the Royal Air Force, describes the development as typical of air warfare:

It’s a constant duel and evolution between countermeasures against countermeasures against countermeasures. In Ukraine, this movement happens every 14 days, so it moves at great speed.

Hungary wants EU sanctions on Ukrainian forced conscription officers

The war in Ukraine

Published 16 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Hungarian Foreign Minister demands that those responsible must be held accountable for the murder and brutal assault of people who refused to go to war.
1 minute read

Following the Council of Europe report, the brutality surrounding forced recruitment patrols in Ukraine must be covered by EU human rights sanctions. This is the view of Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.

Referring to the Council of Europe report titled Memorandum on human rights elements for peace in Ukraine, dated July 8, 2025 and signed by the EU Commissioner for Human Rights, Michael O’Flaherty, Szijjártó points out that conscription in Ukraine involves murder, torture, brutal assault and brutal treatment.

— It is a fact that people are dying in Ukraine because of the brutality of the conscription officers, because they don’t want to go to war.

— Where are the NGOs, where are the Soros organizations, where are the so-called independent journalists, where are the human rights organizations, why do they not speak out and say that this manhunt on the streets of Ukraine is unacceptable? asks Péter Szijjártó.

Szijjártó emphasizes that they view it as unacceptable and “shocking” that European politicians remain indifferent to the brutality and stresses that they demand the responsible recruiters be placed on the EU’s human rights sanctions list.

— This is a bare minimum that the EU must do in this issue, he emphasizes.

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