According to current forecasts, China will double its semiconductor production by the end of the decade. By 2024, the country's production is expected to grow by 13%.
Barclays, a leading London-based bank, analyzed the expansion plans of 48 semiconductor manufacturers in China. Their analysis shows that they plan to build more semiconductor fabs in 2024 than in the previous two years combined. According to Barclays' forecast, China could increase its production capacity by 60 percent over the next three years.
"Local players are still underappreciated", analysts Joseph Zhou and Simon Coles told Bloomberg. "There are materially more local semiconductor manufacturers and fabs in China than suggested by mainstream industry sources".
Barclays predicts that semiconductor production in China will rise from 7.6 million wafer starts per month (WSPM) to 8.6 million WSPM in 2024, an increase of 13 percent. These efforts are aimed at making China a dominant player in the semiconductor market and reducing the country's dependence on semiconductor imports. China is also expected to focus on the production of older node technologies of 28 nanometers and above.
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German companies are reportedly being forced to hand over sensitive industrial information to China in exchange for time-limited licenses for deliveries of rare earth metals. The demands have raised concerns for Germany's economy and security.
German industry has found itself in a difficult dilemma in the wake of China's growing dominance over the production of rare earth metals, reports Bloomberg.
Since spring 2025, China has introduced extensive export controls and requires companies wishing to import critical raw materials to disclose detailed information about their operations. This can include product images, data on mineral usage, production flows, annual statistics and future forecasts, as well as customer lists.
This has quickly become a requirement for obtaining even temporary import licenses – licenses that often are valid for as short a period as six months.
China today dominates a large portion of global refining and processing of rare earth metals, making many European economies heavily dependent on Chinese supplies. German industry can be said to be particularly exposed.
China’s expansion of export controls to production facilities outside of China is a concern being discussed in Germany and at the EU level, a German Economic Ministry spokesperson said https://t.co/Tdc4NylaWM
The new regulations have already forced several smaller manufacturers to shut down, while larger players now face difficult trade-offs: disclose sensitive information and risk competitive disadvantages, or risk losing access to raw materials.
Trade relations have also been complicated by China now often requiring business information about customer bases and production chains in license applications. Analysts warn that through such data collection, China can map European companies' vulnerabilities and use them as strategic leverage.
The European dependence on Chinese supplies makes companies vulnerable to pressure, and creates broader concerns for economic stability and national sovereignty.
During 2025, the EU and German industry organizations have intensified pressure on Brussels and Berlin to accelerate the diversification of supply chains and secure alternative raw material sources.
Several initiatives are being launched to strengthen mining operations and semiconductor production in Europe, but experts warn that the path to independence is long.
Ultimately, the situation illustrates how China's control over strategic raw materials can quickly be transformed into an instrument of power in global trade relations. For German companies, the demands represent significant uncertainty regarding trade secrets, competitiveness and supply stability.
The crisis deepens for Swedish-based steel company Stegra as financier Harald Mix steps down from the chairman position and his investment company Vargas Holding withdraws.The new largest owner will instead be Just Climate, a subsidiary of notorious climate activist Al Gore's environmental investment firm.
This despite the company not yet having started production and facing the risk of running out of cash within a few months
Stegra's largest owner Vargas Holding is now leaving the "climate-smart steel" project following Harald Mix's departure as board chairman. Instead, Just Climate is stepping in as the new principal owner, according to reports to Schibsted-owned Svenska Dagbladet.
Just Climate is an investment company founded by prominent activist Al Gore, and belongs to the asset management firm Generation Investment Management. Since its launch in 2021, the company has attracted approximately €1.3 billion from investors for climate projects, with Stegra being one of them.
Harald Mix will be replaced by Shaun Kingsbury, who according to reports will become the new board chairman for Stegra. However, Mix will continue to work with and advocate for the project.
— My confidence in the company remains unshaken and I will continue to support the company financially as an investor and in my work as an active board member, Harald Mix stated to Dagens Industri.
Al Gore at a World Economic Forum meeting in 2020. Photo: World Economic Forum/CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Large pension funds behind the fund
Among the investors in Just Climate are two Swedish state-owned AP funds, Second AP Fund and Fourth AP Fund, which together manage tens of billions of euros in pension assets.
The funds' investment in Just Climate is currently estimated at approximately €55 million – a relatively modest amount compared to their total capital, but still a source of concern as the project finds itself in deep crisis.
The fact that Swedish pension money has once again been invested in a high-risk project has sparked reactions, not least after the Northvolt fiasco – a corporate collapse that cost Swedish taxpayers billions.
Den gröna omställningen blir återigen en stor grushög denna gång heter grushögen Stegra pic.twitter.com/WYh5cMYQ7g
Stegra has not yet begun production of fossil-free steel at the factory to be built in Boden, northern Sweden. The production start is currently postponed until the turn of 2026/2027, while both costs and debts have skyrocketed.
According to reports from Financial Times, Stegra is burning through approximately €270 million per month and risks running out of money within two months unless credit facilities are granted. Major bank Citigroup has reportedly also withdrawn from the financing.
The crisis at Stegra has been compared to the bankruptcy of battery manufacturer Northvolt earlier this year, and a source with insight says: — This is starting to look more and more like Northvolt. It's hard to see anything other than investments being written off.
If the project collapses, Swedish pension savers risk major losses once again. Among others, AMF Pension (a major Swedish pension fund) has invested €165 million in the company, and Third AP Fund is involved as an investor through private equity firm Altor – founded by Mix and Stegra's second-largest owner.
Al Gore, born March 31, 1948 in Washington D.C., served as US Vice President under Bill Clinton from 1993 to 2001. After the controversial 2000 presidential election, he devoted himself entirely to climate issues. The documentary An Inconvenient Truth (2006) made him a global climate alarmist figure, and in 2007 he shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the UN's climate panel, the IPCC.
Parallel to his activism, Gore has built up significant economic interests. He is co-founder of Generation Investment Management, a London-based investment firm focused on "sustainability", and its subsidiary Just Climate, now the largest owner in Stegra, has raised billions of euros from institutional investors, including Swedish pension funds.
Critics question whether Gore's economic involvement undermines the credibility of his activism, while supporters argue that investments in sustainable companies are necessary for the so-called green transition.
Gore is also founder of The Climate Reality Project, which works with opinion formation and education on environmental and climate issues globally. At the same time, he has established close connections to international power networks, including the World Economic Forum and other influential global economic and political platforms. This strengthens his influence, but has also raised questions about how close cooperation with major economic and political interests actually affects his role as an activist and opinion leader.
Trump's tariffs have reversed trade patterns. China has now overtaken the US as Germany's most important trading partner – just one year after losing the top position.
China has reclaimed first place as Germany's largest trading partner. During the first eight months of the year, trade with China reached €163.4 billion, compared to €162.8 billion for the US, according to preliminary figures from the German statistical office, reports Reuters.
It's a rapid reversal. The US was Germany's largest trading partner in 2024, breaking an eight-year period of Chinese dominance. The shift came as Germany actively tried to reduce its dependence on China, citing political differences and unfair trade practices.
But Donald Trump's return to the White House and renewed tariffs have changed the dynamics.
Tariffs hit hard
German exports to the US fell by 7.4 percent during the first eight months of the year to €99.6 billion. In August, exports dropped by as much as 23.5 percent compared to the previous year.
— There is no question that US tariff and trade policy is an important reason for the decline in sales, says Dirk Jandura, chairman of the German Association for Foreign Trade (BGA).
He notes that American demand for classic German export goods such as cars, machinery and chemicals has decreased.
Chinese imports increase
While exports to China fell by 13.5 percent, imports from China increased by 8.3 percent to €108.8 billion.
— The renewed import boom from China is worrying, says Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING. Particularly as data shows that these imports come at dumping prices.
He warns that this increases Germany's dependence on China and could put additional pressure on key industries where China has become a major competitor.
Geopolitical uncertainty and rising protectionism are prompting Swedish companies to reconsider their foreign operations. After decades of outsourcing to low-cost countries, the trend is now reversing – an increasing number are choosing to relocate production back to Sweden.
Electric bicycle manufacturer Ecoride in Gothenburg, Sweden, is a clear example. After years of production in China and Poland, operations are now consolidated in a factory in Arendal outside Gothenburg.
According to Jan Olhager, professor of strategic production logistics at Lund University in southern Sweden, this development is no coincidence.
— Overall, there are now more reasons to relocate home than before. Not least, geopolitical risks have become a factor of increasing importance when companies decide where to base their manufacturing, he says.
Covid became turning point
Jan Olhager, together with Nordic researchers, has mapped Swedish companies' relocation patterns. The results show clear differences before and after the pandemic. Until 2015, more companies relocated abroad than returned home, but the trend has reversed.
— During the pandemic, companies discovered the risks of having manufacturing far from their home market. Quality problems, delayed shipments, inventory shortages, and soaring transport costs created major problems, Jan Olhager explains.
A recurring pattern is that foreign establishments often become more expensive than calculated. Hidden costs are systematically underestimated, and quality problems ultimately drive many companies to return.
— In the long run, quality is the primary driver for a manufacturing company, Olhager notes.
"Getting closer to retailers and end customers"
Geopolitical tensions have made risk assessments central, while protectionism is growing globally. To offer competitive prices, companies today need to have almost their entire supply chain in the country or region where they operate.
Martin Walleräng, CEO of Ecoride, established an assembly plant in China in 2012, but was forced to relocate to Poland in 2018 when the EU imposed high tariffs on electric bicycles. Just over two years ago, the company moved back home to Arendal.
— Consolidating operations under one roof has created a number of advantages. Everything from product development to building a common corporate culture has been facilitated. Another important advantage is that we get closer to our retailers and end customers, says Martin Walleräng.
