Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

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American hubris generates Chinese Nemesis: Implications of social media emigration to China

Through their interactions on RedNote, American users are dispelling myths about China's oppressive conditions, discovering a reality filled with pride, joy, and advanced infrastructure, Hussein Askary states in a guest analysis.

Published 19 January 2025
Amid the potential ban of TikTok the U.S., the Chinese app RedNote has seen an influx of new users from the U.S.

The impending ban on the Chinese social media application TikTok in the United States (starting on January 19) has created a big wave of unprecedented numbers of American social media users, especially youth, to “emigrate” to other similar apps, but this time in mainland China. This has caused many of them to get in direct contact with Chinese netizens and find for themselves the shocking reality of the advanced, beautiful, and culturally advanced China contrary to what the U.S. mass media, think tanks, and government and elected officials have been telling them. TikTok has 170 million American users.

This incredibly ironical turn of events is showing, not only the obsoleteness of the policy of isolating and undermining China, but the total ignorance of American policy makers. Their arrogant move to ban TikTok, has backfired in the most powerful and comical way at the same time. American TikTok users have flocked by the millions to download a Chinese app with similar features, although it had no English instructions, forcing them to attempt to figure out what the Chinese figures meant.

This Chinese app, called Xiaohongshu or RedNote is a popular Chinese social media and e-commerce platform. The Chinese name means literally “Little Red Book” is attributed to Mao Zedong the former Chairman of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and founder of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It combines aspects of Tik Tok, Instagram, Pinterest, and an online shopping experience. Users can share lifestyle content, discover products, and purchase items directly within the app.

RedNote has been downloaded and installed by Americans at least 3,600,000 times up until the time of the writing of this article (see images below).

Already many of these Americans, now nicknamed “TikTok refugees”, are posting videos about their amazement at what they are seeing being posted by Chinese users regarding lifestyle in general in China, but also the advanced infrastructure, public transport, prices of food and groceries, healthcare, housing, and the cultural activities offered to the people of China. More importantly their previous sense that the Chinese people are oppressed and living a depressing life, an image induced by American mass media and politicians, is turned on its head as they see Chinese citizens expressing not only joy for living in China now but also pride.

Many of these American users are expressing deep disappointment that they have been lied to for so long and wanting to learn more to discover the reality by themselves. So, many of them are learning to speak some basic Chinese words and sentences. They are making new friends in China, and are eager to learn more about China. It is almost certain that thousands and thousands of Americans, who never had any intention of travelling to China will now seize the opportunity of visa-free trips to China and travel to China to get more amazed and report back to millions of Americans the true China they have seen.

News have it that the most popular Chinese instant messaging application, Wechat, is being prepared by its mother company, Tencent, to receive American “social media refugees” by facilitating their signing up through their previous Facebook account instead of the previous complicated process involved in creating a new account. Most American’s and many people around the world use WhatsApp messaging service, which is owned by Meta Platforms, Inc. The latter owns Facebook and Instagram too and its founder and chairman is Mark Zuckerberg. It has been revealed  that U.S. major social media platforms share user data with U.S. intelligence agencies as part of a mass surveillance operation under the pretext of protecting national security.

Many of these American users are expressing deep disappointment that they have been lied to

The U.S. banned TikTok using the same pretext, alleging without providing any evidence, that the company and its parent company, China-based Bytedance, provide user data to Chinese authorities and is used as a propaganda instrument to influence American public opinion.

What has happened with the mass emigration from the U.S. to Red Note, is a true cultural awakening which the arrogant American leaders never envisioned could ever take place. This is a classical boomerang in politics. In Greek mythology, the term “hubris” is used to describe acts of utter pride, arrogance, combined with ignorance in defiance of natural law, or the gods. It is usually punished by a fatal retribution or “nemesis”, a concept derived from the Greek Goddess of Retribution, Nemesis.

One famous example given in Greek mythology is that of the fall of Icarus. He was the son of the master craftsman Daedalus. Icarus and Daedalus escaped from King Menos using wings Daedalus constructed from birds’ feathers and threads and fitted them with beeswax. Before escaping, Daedalus warned Icarus not to fly too close to the sun because the heat would melt the wax. Icarus ignored Daedalus’ advice and flew too close to the sun and thus the beeswax in his wings melted and Icarus fell from the sky, plunged into the sea, and drowned.

Attempting to undermine China through sanctions, tariffs, and bans like this will not stop China’s rise. Ironically, they negatively affect the U.S. itself. It would be wiser for American leaders, and EU too, to cooperate with China and rise together for the sake of their own people, and also for the sake of eliminating poverty and achieving stability and peace in the world.

 

Hussein Askary
Vice-Chairman of the Belt and Road Institute in Sweden

RedNote is a Chinese social media platform, also known as Xiaohongshu or "Little Red Book." Launched in 2013, it has grown into a popular app for lifestyle content, including travel, fashion, cooking, and shopping tips. Users can create posts, discover trends, and interact with a global community.

In 2025, amid a potential TikTok ban in the U.S., RedNote has seen an influx of new users from the U.S. and other countries as an alternative platform. The app is available for download on both iOS and Android devices.

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How polls can be used to influence public opinion

US presidential election

Many pollsters predicted a very close presidential election in the United States - or even a clear victory for the Democrats. The question is whether the explanatory models for the major "miscalculations" hold up, or whether the institutes are really being used to influence opinion rather than to research it.

Published 19 November 2024
Opinion poll presented on American ABC just before the presidential election.

In the run-up to the US presidential election, both domestic voters and international audiences were told that the election would be an uncertain affair. It was claimed that Harris had “momentum” and a good chance of defeating Donald Trump – with several polls even showing her as the clear favorite to win by several percentage points.

As we know, that didn’t happen – at all. Trump won all seven battleground states and won 312 electoral votes – compared to a measly 226 for Harris. Despite losing big states like California, Trump also won the most popular votes in the US election. The result can probably be described without exaggeration as a landslide victory for Trump.

In the aftermath of the election, there have been many attempts to explain it away. Some claim that the pollsters and those behind the polls “underestimated” Trump’s voters. Others claim that they failed to “reach out” to Trump’s voter base, and that is why they were so wrong.

Some also argue, somewhat sweepingly, that the purpose of the polls was never to give an accurate picture of the situation or predict the outcome of the election, but only to show “patterns”, “attitudes” and “more or less qualified assessments” – and that therefore one should not react to the fact that in many cases they gave a seriously misleading picture of Harris’ and Trump’s real support among the American people.

People prefer a winner

Overall, there is much to suggest a very different and more sinister explanation for why the polls “happened” to be wrong about the outcome of the election. Rather, it may be that they have been systematically used as an active tool to influence elections.

Officially, of course, they say that they are only “investigating” what voters intend to vote for. In practice, there is evidence that these results have been both exaggerated and skewed in various ways in favor of the Democrats, making it appear that Kamala Harris was on her way to victory, when in fact she had almost no chance.

The reason would be very simple and logical – to try to shape public opinion to get the more politically insecure masses to go out and vote for Harris – and at the same time to make the more moderate Trump supporters feel resigned and stay home – because their candidate could not win this time either.

Psychologically, the strategy is not difficult to understand. A candidate who is portrayed as a winner or with a strong tailwind will attract more supporters than a candidate who is portrayed as a perceived loser. If voters perceive that their candidate has no real chance of defeating the opponent, many will abstain from voting – while many of those who are politically uncertain will tend to join the “winning team”.

Peer pressure is real

Despite the fact that there is often a lack of transparency in the activities and practices of pollsters and analysts, they enjoy an almost sacrosanct position in media coverage – or at least are widely interpreted as neutral, as actors without ulterior motives.

This view may be considered naive. These are not actors driven by a sense of justice, but by political ambitions and financial interests, and of course this does not only apply to the US presidential election. Opinion polls can strongly shape people’s views on many controversial issues – whether it’s NATO membership, migration policy, government support for the LGBT lobby, or whether Swedish arms should be sent to Ukraine and Israel.

The impact of peer pressure on human behavior is very real. Standing out and going against the grain is perceived by many as something unpleasant – with the risk of attracting social stigma in various ways. This is a basic psychology that politically conscious actors are of course aware of, and therefore inclined to use to their advantage. If a reluctant citizen who is leaning towards voting for the Sweden Democrats reads at the same time that 9 out of 10 Swedes would never consider voting for the party, the decision to actually do so becomes psychologically more difficult.

In the case of the US presidential election, there is much to suggest that support for Trump’s campaign – and perhaps above all dissatisfaction with the ruling Democrats for a variety of reasons – was so strong among broad segments of the population that it was simply not possible to manipulate public opinion to his detriment to the extent necessary to determine the outcome of the election.

Nor did it seem to matter that the entire left-liberal media establishment did everything it could, year after year, to paint Trump as a criminal, rapist, racist, fascist, extremist, or generally irrational lunatic. The explanation seems to be that a growing number of Trump supporters simply don’t care – largely because their trust in those pushing such messages has already been so badly eroded that the attempts to character assassinate Trump have not been effective enough.

So the subtle influence of the pollsters is by no means omnipotent, but for the discerning observer it is definitely a factor to consider in how opinion is actually shaped in practice.

 

TNT Editorial Team

How did the number of Uyghurs in China rapidly increase in the midst of “genocide”?

The modern China

By hosting members of the so-called World Uyghur Congress, the capital of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina has attempted once again to position itself as the "Mecca" of American foreign policy actions, once again presenting its Muslim image to the U.S. as a cover for pursuing their interests, writes Branko Zujovic in a guest analysis.

Published 8 November 2024
Uyghur separatists protesting outside the White House in Washington DC.

Rarely has anyone offended the Islamic world this year as much as Zumretay Arkin, who signs as the president of the Committee of Women of the so-called World Uyghur Congress. During a recent session of the so-called World Uyghur Congress in Sarajevo, she told local media that Islamic countries do not support her organization’s efforts to separate the Uyghur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang from China, because these countries have strong economic ties with China.

Caring and generous – NED and CIA

From her statement, it can be concluded that the Islamic world is so weak, immoral and corruptible that because of Chinese loans it agrees to turn a blind eye and remain silent on the alleged violence that China is carrying out against the Uyghurs, while the American National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA ), who in fact founded and generously finance the so-called World Uyghur Congress, are the only ones who genuinely care about the fate and well-being of that Islamic community in China. The aforementioned intelligence organizations “took care” of the Uyghurs by inciting countless terrorist attacks by Uyghur extremists against citizens, Chinese security forces and Chinese institutions, in which thousands of people died until a few years ago.

The author of these lines is, unfortunately, a witness to the suicide terrorist attack by Uyghur extremists that took place in Beijing in 2013, when, in addition to the three attackers, two visitors were also killed: a Chinese woman and a woman from abroad.

Uyghur girls in Hotan. The photo was taken in the 90s. Photo: Gujiang xie

The World Uyghur Congress was founded two decades ago. According to all relevant international reports, the organization was founded under the patronage and with abundant financial and logistical support of the aforementioned NED, that is, the CIA, as well as other security and intelligence agencies of the United States of America (USA). According to the latest report by the Kinex government, which, of course, closely monitors the work of this organization, NED annually allocates 5 to 6 million dollars for the work of the World Uyghur Congress.

Yesterday terrorists, today “freedom fighters”

The World Uyghur Congress wholeheartedly supported the activities of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which carried out a large number of terrorist attacks in China from approximately 2006 to 2016, i.e. 2017. Similar to what happened earlier with the so-called Kosovo Liberation Army, the United States first designated the East Turkestan Islamic Movement as a terrorist organization in 2002. Subsequently, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement was simply removed from the U.S. list of terrorist organizations because someone in Washington apparently concluded that this group could be useful.

East Turkestan Islamic Movement fighters.

With a single act of the U.S. administration, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which we can broadly consider to be the terrorist wing of the World Uyghur Congress, was reassigned from the list of terrorists to the list of supposed democratic movements fighting for “freedom.”

The similarity with Serbia and the process of the disintegration of former Yugoslavia does not end with this kind of political-legal manipulation regarding the status of a notorious terrorist organization. Shortly thereafter, Mike Pompeo, the then U.S. Secretary of State, announced that his country was imposing sanctions on China for the alleged genocide against the Uyghurs.

They were burning and slaughtering people

But what was actually happening in China all this time, and how did the U.S., just as in the case of Srebrenica, again use “genocide” as a trump card against another country, in this case China? From around 2006 to 2016, or 2017, China faced terrorist attacks from the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and related Islamist groups of Uyghur separatists supported by the U.S., along with the World Uyghur Congress as the political wing of these terrorist groups in exile.

The political aim of this wave of terrorism, which, it should be emphasized and repeated, affected all of China and was clearly orchestrated by the U.S., was crystal clear: to destabilize the entire country under the pretext of separating Xinjiang and establishing a new Turkic “state,” similar in many ways to “Kosovo,” which would be called “East Turkestan.”

Here are a few examples of the violence that people in China were subjected to.

In the summer, specifically on July 5, 2009, Uyghur Islamists sparked a wave of violence in the capital of Xinjiang, Urumqi, resulting in the deaths of 197 people and injuring 1,721. People were literally hacked with machetes and knives, beaten, and even burned alive in the streets.

On May 22, 2014, two car bomb explosions in the same city killed 43 people and injured 94.

In addition to the aforementioned suicide attack that occurred at Tiananmen in Beijing, another suicide terrorist attack took place in Kunming, in southwest China, in 2013, resulting in 5 deaths and 38 injuries.

A year later, another serious terrorist crime occurred in Kunming, committed by eight Uyghur terrorists. They literally stabbed people with knives, killing 31 and injuring 141.

3 paradoxes

Initially, Turkey was at least partially interested in the events in Xinjiang, as the Uyghurs are Turkic-speaking Muslims. However, the coup attempt in Turkey in 2016, along with a clearer understanding of the real motives and background of the activities of Uyghur terrorists, as well as the overall development of relations with China, distanced the country from supporting the U.S. and the World Uyghur Congress’s interpretation of the Uyghur issue.

Claiming that Turkey abandoned pro-American “support” for the Uyghurs due to the high interest rates of Chinese loans is not worth mentioning.

The World Uyghur Congress has remained isolated on the international stage, alongside the U.S. and its satellites. This congress needs to explain the first of at least three major paradoxes that accompany and essentially demystify its work: why do only the U.S. and its allies “support” the Muslim Uyghurs, but not Islamic countries?

The explanation by Zumretay Arkin that China bribes the Islamic world with loans does not sound convincing or realistic. Jewish communities around the world and Israel itself also have enough money to buy the favor of Islamic countries outside the Arab sphere in support of the obvious violence against Palestinians. Yet, no non-Arab Islamic country has ever agreed to this kind of geopolitical corruption.

Zumretay Arkin is the president of the Committee of Women of the World Uyghur Congress.

The Mecca of American geopolitical action

Since no significant Islamic country supports the World Uyghur Congress, Sarajevo, the capital of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), has emerged as an ideal location for hosting this essentially pro-American organization. For decades, Sarajevo has tried to position itself as the “Mecca” of American geopolitical action, aligning its Muslim image with U.S. interests as a cover to promote their agenda whenever the opportunity arises, hoping that the U.S. and its allies will one day dismantle the Republika Srpska and undermine the unofficial, but existing, third entity in BiH colloquially known as Herceg-Bosna.

At the end of May and the beginning of June this year, Damon Wilson, the head of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), along with his colleague responsible for BiH, Brian Joseph, visited the capital of the Federation. It is hard to believe that this visit, along with the visit of CIA Director William Burns to Sarajevo shortly afterward, was unrelated to the organization of the World Uyghur Congress’s session in that city.

Given that radical Muslim forces in BiH were similarly used during the breakup of Yugoslavia – removing democratically elected Fikret Abdić and refusing to finalize a pre-war agreement with their Serbian neighbors that was acceptable to all – it was not difficult for them to come to an understanding with their colleagues from the World Uyghur Congress today.

The common denominator of this joint action by the U.S., the World Uyghur Congress, and Sarajevo is “genocide”.

Not a word about Gaza, but tears for the Uyghurs

Representatives of the World Uyghur Congress first visited the massacre site in Potočari, which the U.S. is interested in solely within the context of its geopolitical utility, particularly in exerting pressure on Serbia and Republika Srpska. Outside of this strained assessment of the crimes committed by Serbian forces in Srebrenica, the U.S. and its satellites show as much interest in Srebrenica as they do in the nearby Serbian massacre sites from the same war.

This brings us to the second paradox: Sarajevo has never issued a diplomatic note to Washington regarding the evident support for the even more apparent genocide against Muslims in Gaza, yet it sheds crocodile tears for the nonexistent genocide against Uyghurs in China on behalf of the U.S.

The narrative of American institutions and media about the so-called genocide that China is allegedly continuously committing against the Uyghurs is ‘supported’ by unprovable claims that can only be either believed or disbelieved.

China has, for example, been accused of sterilizing Uyghur women and establishing concentration camps. Evidence for these claims often includes blurry satellite images or media reports that have turned out to be false.

One of the most notorious examples of such manipulation involves a convicted drug dealer named Merdan Ghappar, whose videos and text messages from prison, exchanged with a BBC correspondent, were used in Western media as prime evidence for the existence of concentration camps for Uyghurs.

The comical side of anti-chinese propaganda

The narrative goes that where there are concentration camps, there is also genocide. When the imperative is to prove that a nonexistent genocide has indeed occurred, even footage from a regular prison can come in handy. However, this kind of anti-China propaganda also had its comedic aspects. In January 2021, the New York Times published an article by a certain Amelie Pang titled “It Took Genocide for Me to Remember My Uyghur Roots”. Amelie, as can be read in relevant sources, is one-eighth Uyghur. Although she has never been to Xinjiang or interacted with Uyghurs from China, she has published at least 17 articles about the “genocide” against them, claiming that “Chinese policies of forced assimilation have even reached her.”

The best example, however, was the case of a “genocide victim” revealed by YouTuber Daniel Dumbrill, who pointed out that the aforementioned “victim”, whose case was extensively reported by CNN and BBC, had her passport renewed by Chinese authorities at a time when she claimed to have been in prison. In a clip aired on CNN, the date of this “victim’s” passport renewal was conveniently blurred.

The Chinese government has systematically refuted the blurry satellite images used as supposed prime evidence for the existence of concentration camps in Xinjiang, publishing images from the actual locations. This included sites in the Markit district of Kashgar Prefecture, where basic schools, middle schools, and nursing homes were misrepresented as concentration camps. Many similar examples exist, such as a logistics center in the Bachu district, also in Kashgar Prefecture, which was cited as a concentration camp in Western media reports.

Demographics in the time of genocide

Yet, there is a crucial point in the narrative of Western media regarding Xinjiang and the alleged genocide against Uyghurs: the Uyghur population in the People’s Republic of China.

From 2010 to 2018, the Uyghur population grew by 25 percent. It is simply incredible that, under the conditions of the alleged genocide that, according to claims from American and other Western media, China is continuously perpetrating against the Uyghurs, the Uyghur population in the country has been rapidly increasing.

Over the last 40 years, the number of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has risen from around 5.5 million to over 12 million. It’s important to emphasize another very significant fact: like other ethnic minorities, the Uyghurs were never subject to China’s one-child policy. This policy applied exclusively to Han Chinese, the largest ethnic group in the country.

While the numbers of nearly all ethnic groups in China have been stagnating or even declining in recent years, the aforementioned fact indisputably refutes the Western media and institutional narrative of “genocide” against the Uyghurs.

Uyghur girls wearing ethnic dress in Hotan, Xinjiang. The photo was taken in the 90s. Photo: Gujiang xie

China’s response

China initially responded to the challenges of terrorism and separatism by crushing terrorist groups on the ground, which were found to be linked to the Islamic State. Another paradox in this story is that the U.S. held 22 Uyghur Islamists at Guantanamo who fought against American forces in Afghanistan, not within the U.S. itself.

In July 2020, the United Nations identified thousands of Uyghur fighters within the ranks of the Islamic State in Syria and Afghanistan. While the U.S. fought against terrorism immediately after the September 11, 2001 attacks, it regarded China as a partner and ally in that struggle. However, when China began defending itself against terrorism shortly afterward, the U.S. supported Uyghur terrorists and separatists as “freedom fighters.”

With the U.S. as the obvious ally of Uyghur separatists, China achieved victory over terrorists on the ground. After this victory, Xinjiang ceased to be a neuralgic point through which Western powers, led by the U.S., attempted to destabilize China (similar attempts have been made in Hong Kong, Tibet, and continue in Taiwan).

China has established temporary educational and vocational centers in Xinjiang, which the pro-Western propaganda machine automatically labeled as concentration camps, but these centers have since been closed. Xinjiang has become an important tourist, agricultural, and commercial hub for China and the “Belt and Road” initiative, with the living standards of its residents rising sharply year by year.

Urumqi is the provincial capital of Xinjiang. Photo: AsianDream

Autumn harvest instead of violence and bloodshed

This brings us to another significant paradox: while discussions were held in Sarajevo at the World Uyghur Congress about the need for Xinjiang to secede from China – an action that inherently generates violence and bloodshed – Xinjiang itself was experiencing a mechanized autumn cotton harvest and the harvesting of fall crops, utilizing the BeiDou satellite system and artificial intelligence to monitor crop conditions and yields.

This situation perhaps most accurately reflects the value difference between the Chinese civilization circle in the 21st century and the civilization circle of the U.S., to which Serbia belongs. In recent years, China has invested hundreds of billions of yuan in Xinjiang. Modern roads and railways have been built, and the state encourages agriculture, private initiative, and market development, while also working to protect the untouched nature of that part of China.

Tens of millions of tourists travel to Xinjiang each year, recording hundreds of millions of overnight stays. This fact does not support the claims of the so-called World Uyghur Congress about Xinjiang being a large concentration camp for the extermination of Uyghurs.

The rapid economic progress of Xinjiang, along with the rising living standards of its inhabitants – where the Uyghur community, by the way, does not constitute an ethnic majority – can be illustrated by the data showing that last year, exports from this Chinese autonomous region to five neighboring Central Asian countries (geographically, Xinjiang belongs to Central Asia) increased by 23.2 percent compared to the previous year. The value of those exports amounted to a staggering 246.57 billion yuan (34.25 billion dollars) for our country, and nearly unreachable for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

All other economic indicators and facts also testify in favor of China’s economic development and the stability of the Chinese state, along with that of Xinjiang itself. These circumstances enjoy the majority support of the population in Xinjiang, which does not want to become prey to geopolitical predators again.

Locals and tourists at the Xinjiang International Grand Bazaar. Photo: kitzcorner

What did the so-called world Uyghur congress try to hide in Sarajevo?

Support from Xinjiang itself is precisely what the so-called World Uyghur Congress lacks in order to truly become Uyghur, instead of, in fact, (pro)American. To obscure this fact, the so-called World Uyghur Congress requested hospitality in Sarajevo, which now has its part of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – specifically, the area of Sarajevo – Tuzla – Zenica plus Bihać. Let’s reiterate that this should convince the U.S. that it truly cares, uniquely and sincerely, about the welfare of the Uyghurs located 6,000 kilometers away from Baščaršija, and that this American “concern” is the concern of all Bosniaks in the world, while the same U.S. cannot be directed by Sarajevo to issue even a letter of official protest due to its support for the oppression of Palestinians.

The biggest beneficiary of the Sarajevo episode with the so-called World Uyghur Congress is, you guessed it, the Republic of Srpska.

Banja Luka wisely published an interview with the chargé d’affaires of the Chinese embassy just before the opening of the mentioned congress of Uyghur extremists in Sarajevo, who rightly described the gathering in Sarajevo as anti-Chinese. This circumstance further strengthens the position that the Republic of Srpska, as part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has managed to build in international relations, especially regarding its increasingly intensive cooperation with the People’s Republic of China and its fundamental respect for the one China principle – not just the formally expressed one, which seems uncontested only in Banja Luka.

 

Branko Zujovic

 

The article was originally published on EagleEyeExplore

Quick facts about Xinjiang

Being China’s largest province, Xinjiang spans 1.6 million square kilometers in the country’s northwest. Historically a key Silk Road passage, it connected China with Central Asia and beyond; today, it plays a strategic role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with new infrastructure supporting expanded trade routes across Eurasia. The economy of Xinjiang, driven by abundant reserves of oil, gas, and minerals, is also bolstered as China’s top natural gas producer and a leading exporter of cotton.

With a population of about 25 million, Xinjiang’s largest groups include Uyghurs, Han Chinese, Kazakhs, and Hui. Islam is widely practiced among Uyghurs and Hui, while Buddhism and Taoism are common among Han.

Xinjiang is known for its wild horses, which attract tourists eager to experience the region’s unique landscapes and rich natural heritage. Photo: kitzcorner/iStock

Foreign investors becoming “nervous Nellies”: Carlyle Thayer on Vietnam’s deepening political turmoil

In an exclusive interview with TNT, Emeritus Professor Carlyle Thayer of The University of New South Wales discussed Vietnam's anti-corruption efforts, their effects on domestic politics, economy, foreign investment potential, and the nation's global image.

Published 1 May 2024
– By Sukanya Saha
Left: Former President Võ Văn Thưởng during a visit to Japan. Right: Current President Võ Thị Ánh Xuân at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi.

Vietnam’s previously stable one-party Communist regime has been known for its consistency. However, President Võ Văn Thưởng’s sudden resignation on March 20, merely a year into his tenure, making him the shortest-serving president in the nation’s Communist history, indicates a growing tumult in Hanoi’s political landscape.

For weeks, several experts had been forecasting his downfall. Now, Thưởng has joined the ranks as the second president to step down within the span of two years amid a sweeping anti-corruption campaign that has ousted numerous high-ranking politicians in the Southeast Asian country.

During an interview exclusively with The Nordic Times, Carlyle Thayer, Emeritus Professor of Politics at The University of New South Wales, discussed Vietnam’s anti-corruption drive, its impact on internal politics, economic outlook, the potential for foreign investment, and the country’s image on the global stage.

Foreign investors becoming ‘nervous Nellies’

Vietnam’s political instability coincides with a period of heightened foreign investment, fuelled by a global trend among manufacturers seeking to reduce reliance on China amid increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing. Investors are growing increasingly anxious as the anti-corruption campaign extends to private enterprises, causing delays and uncertainties in government approvals for projects and licenses. Officials are hesitant to grant approvals due to concerns about potential corruption investigations.

Deliberating on whether Vietnam’s political instability would concern its foreign investors, Thayer said, “Beijing’s economy is in the doldrums and Vietnam heavily relies on the Chinese market. Vietnam wants science and technology to be the driver.

“They want innovation, clean energy transition, protected supply chains, help the semiconductor industry, and more. They want to modernise. So, to do that, they are going to have to encourage investment and make decisions. They already have had at least 50 US businesses visit the largest US trade mission.

“But investors are understandably apprehensive about potential shifts in leadership. And the closer you get to a party congress, you see a slowdown in the process of decision-making and approvals. However, it will be up to Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính and his cabinet to drive progress.

“Vietnam, being risk-averse, will avoid unnerving investors who might hastily withdraw their support. The last thing they want the investors to become is nervous Nellies and scare the horses. They need foreign investment, including from China. It is crucial for Vietnam’s economic stability and they are not trying to move to the West only.

“Therefore, Vietnam has a pragmatic approach that involves constant self-reflection to drive economic progress and maintain political stability. It recently expressed interest in establishing trade offices in five major Chinese cities and aims to collaborate with India, particularly in high-tech sectors.”

Impact on domestic politics

On March 20, the Vietnamese Communist Party acknowledged the resignation of President Võ Văn Thưởng, citing “shortcomings”, according to a government statement. The statement specified that Thưởng, who was widely perceived as having a close relationship with the General Secretary of the Communist Party, Nguyễn Phú, Vietnam’s most influential figure and the main architect of the anti-corruption drive, had breached party regulations, and these “shortcomings” had led to adverse public perceptions, tarnishing the reputation of both the party and the State, as well as his own personal standing.

Discussing how Thưởng’s sudden resignation could impact Vietnam’s domestic politics and its image on the global stage, the professor opined, “Well, Thưởng has resigned and there are 20 months left in his term of office, actually a bit more, till May of 2026. So, at the moment, Vietnam has appointed Vice President Võ Thị Ánh Xuân to replace him. But she is not a member of the so-called four pillars of the Vietnamese leadership and one has to be a permanent member of the political bureau.

“So, the Central Committee must decide who will fill the president’s term. Earlier, the party secretary general assumed the presidency after a president’s death but relinquished it upon the term’s end. But it’s unlikely the current Secretary General (Nguyễn Phú Trọng) will do the same due to age and health concerns.

“Therefore, they have two options: Appointing a caretaker or someone to serve the term without major shifts in foreign or economic policy. But despite the transition period, I expect Vietnamese politics to remain stable, with leadership changes every five years, with a significant turnover, organised by age groups and regional representation.

“Of course, navigating their internal procedures can be cumbersome. Moreover, regardless of their actions, the outgoing leadership will review candidates. But once we get this interim decision made, it’s a steady state.”

Selection of future leaders

Transitioning power is a complex task in any nation, and Vietnam is no different. Following the conclusion of the 13th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, a new leadership team was selected to guide the country for the next five years. However, rather than rejuvenating national leadership to confront looming strategic, human security, and economic challenges, the party failed to deliver on its pledge for a generational change with several high-profile dismisses and prosecutions within the party.

Highlighting why there has been no significant change in the party’s internal dynamics, particularly regarding the selection of future leaders, Thayer explained, “With around 180 full voting members alongside alternatives, vacancies still exist within the central committee, primarily due to retirements. Vietnam systematically appoints people by age groups. It’s like an escalator. You have under 50, 50 to 60, 60 to 65.

“So, every five years, a new group, comprising provincial representatives, military, public security, and party officials, ascends to form the core of leadership, although gender representation remains low and there is only 10-14 per cent of women. Nevertheless, apart from occasional exceptions, structural composition, and sectoral representation ensure stability, as we have seen in regular party congresses since 1976. Therefore, the structural makeup and sectoral representation are ingrained, like DNA.”

He further suggested that Vietnam’s default stance leans heavily towards stability. Therefore, there are rarely any radical shifts, as the provinces, although under the same party umbrella, function independently. This setup provides a stabilising effect on the overall system. Since the reunification in 1976, party congresses have occurred regularly every five years.

“I’ve conducted analyses on turnover by age group and sector that show a remarkable level of stability. While there may be some fluctuations, the system’s foundation remains robust,” he added.

Who will be Thưởng’s successor?

The President’s role is largely ceremonial but ranks among the top four political positions in Vietnam. Recent shifts in leadership within the single-party system have all been associated with the extensive “blazing furnace” antigraft campaign, aimed at eradicating pervasive corruption but also suspected of being used for internal political struggles.

When former President Nguyễn Xuân Phúc resigned last year following allegations of “violations and wrongdoing” by officials under his jurisdiction, it took lawmakers a month and a half to appoint Thưởng as his successor. Therefore, the upcoming elections for a new president in Vietnam carry significant implications for the country’s political stability.

Underscoring the importance of the forthcoming elections in the Southeast Asian nation, the professor stated, “To host a head of state or government, you need a president who sits at the top political body, granting some authority but not independent policymaking power. The president essentially acts as the perfect salesman for what’s already been agreed collectively.

“Therefore, Vietnam must promptly fill this role to engage in meetings and summits in the region effectively as it significantly elevated its partnerships last year, aligning with the US, Japan, and Australia as comprehensive strategic partners, followed by South Korea the year before. This places them alongside China, Russia, and India, long-standing traditional allies and partners of Vietnam.”

Speaking of the Communist Party’s criteria for selecting Thưởng’s successor, Thayer said, “It will heavily influence Vietnam’s trajectory leading up to the 2026 National Congress. Typically, the Secretary General oversees the nomination process for a successor, by conducting straw polls to gauge support within the central committee. And now this process has been expedited due to Thưởng’s resignation, likely resulting in a smooth transition to the 14th Congress in early 2026.”

Is Vietnam losing its ‘China plus one’ tag?

Vietnam’s proactive approach in encouraging both Chinese and international companies to relocate operations to its territory and diversify their investments has played a significant role in its successful implementation of the “China plus one” strategy.

However, some experts feel that the government must now establish a clear and transparent legal framework to sustain its endeavours in combating corruption across both public and private domains. Otherwise, the lustre that the Southeast Asian nation has gained as being “China’s plus one” may fade away before long.

Mulling over the possibility of Vietnam losing its “China Plus One” status, Thayer remarked, “Well, the whole ‘China Plus One’ concept hinges on whether Donald Trump comes back after the November elections (in the US). It refers to businesses, both foreign and Chinese, moving some operations to Vietnam to avoid potential US sanctions or tariffs on Chinese goods. But it’s a tricky situation.

“But despite these challenges, I don’t think it could lose its ‘China plus one’ status. In fact, Vietnam’s status as a non-market economy could change soon, potentially leading to more favourable trade terms with the US.”

Sukanya Saha is a contributing editor at The Nordic Times. Based in New Delhi, she is an accomplished journalist who has previously worked with several major Indian media outlets such as NDTV, India Today, IANS, and Jagran English. Currently, she is associated with Hindustan Times. In 2022, she topped the BRICS International Journalism Programme from India. Committed to understanding the complex dynamics that shape our world, Sukanya's passions range from world politics to science and space exploration.

Political shake-up rattles succession battle in Vietnam

Published 11 April 2024
– By Sukanya Saha
Left: Recently resigned president Võ Văn Thưởng. Right: Potential presidential successor Tô Lâm eating gold-leaf adorned steak presented to him by celebrity chef "Salt Bae".