Saturday, July 26, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

The Wagner group’s rebellion is over

The war in Ukraine

Published 25 June 2023
– By Editorial Staff
Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group seized military bases in Rostov.
5 minute read

There was no protracted civil war and the Wagner group never entered Moscow. After mediation, they will return to their military bases and their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin will leave Russia for Belarus. It is also clear that the participants in the armed revolt will not be prosecuted for their actions.

The Russian-Jewish leader of the private paramilitary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has recently launched a fierce attack on the Russian military leadership, accusing it of corruption, mismanagement of the war, lying about Russian successes and losses, and failing to supply enough ammunition or equipment to his soldiers – allegedly leading to many unnecessary deaths in Ukraine.

 

On Friday, he sharpened his tone further, accusing Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu of ordering an attack on the Wagner group, saying that the Russian military leadership is “evil” and that this is why they decided to march towards the city of Rostov – a march for justice, according to Prigozhin.

The Russian Defense Ministry quickly denied all allegations that it had attacked the Wagner group’s positions, and the FSB security service also declared that it was launching an investigation into Prigozhin for staging an armed rebellion on Russian territory – and called on Wagner soldiers to arrest the leader.

President Putin called the Wagner group’s actions “a stab in the back of our country and our people”, adding that the mutiny comes at a time when Russia is “fighting for the life and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence” – and called for an immediate end to all internal conflicts that could be exploited by the enemy. Troops from Chechnya and elsewhere were also mobilized to be deployed against the Wagner Group if necessary.

The Wagner group, reportedly consisting of around 25,000 soldiers, also captured several key military installations in Rostov without apparently encountering any major resistance, although there were reports of some clashes between the Wagner group and the Russian military.

Marched on Moscow

Prigozhin soon announced that he and his troops are continuing the march – towards the capital Moscow, to ensure that the Russian military leadership is held accountable and their actions investigated. In Moscow, the alarm was raised, police and military were deployed on the streets and Putin declares that the Wagner group was engaging in “treason” and that the consequences will be very severe. Prigozhin countered by criticizing Putin on Telegram and claiming that Russia will soon have another president.

According to some reports, the Wagner group also captured the city of Lipetsk – 40 miles south of Moscow and several other smaller towns along the way.

On Saturday evening, Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Wagner Group will stop all troop movements towards Moscow – in order to “avoid bloodshed” and that his soldiers will return to their military bases. Shortly thereafter, control of the military bases was also returned to the Russian military.

– They wanted to disband PMC Wagner. On June 23, we went on a March of Justice in a day. We advanced on Moscow just 200km short, and during this time we did not shed a single drop of the blood of our fighters, he claimed, although several video clips appear to show fighting between the paramilitary group and the Russian military.

Belarusian mediation

The march to Moscow was stopped shortly after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s staff announced that they had successfully mediated the conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian leadership.

Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of the armed men of Wagner in Russia and to take further steps to de-escalate tension,” a Belarusian presidency statement declared. It also stated that the groups leader had been offered “an advantageous and acceptable option for resolving the situation, with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters”.

According to the Kremlin, an agreement has been reached to dismiss the investigation into Prigozhin’s treason and incitement to armed rebellion, and for him to leave Russia for Belarus. The Wagner Group soldiers will also not face prosecution as they are considered to have served well in the war in Ukraine and President Putin is said to have great respect for their sacrifices. Those Wagner Group soldiers who did not take part in the coup will also be allowed to sign contracts with the Russian armed forces, but exactly what happens next to the group, its leadership and its tens of thousands of remaining soldiers remains unclear.

Speculation on motives

In the West, observers have different theories and thoughts about the background of the failed coup and Prigozhin’s motives for it. Some suggest that Prigozhin is seeking more power and influence and saw a chance to challenge Putin and the highest Russian leadership – but that he did not receive the military support he hoped for in his ‘march on Moscow’ and was therefore forced to back down – and is now in exile in Belarus.

Others suggest that it was a power struggle between Prigozhin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, with the former provoking a reaction from the Wagner group by limiting their access to weapons and ammunition – something the Wagner group says has led to unnecessary losses.

Prigozhin has also harshly criticized the Russian military leadership’s strategy in Ukraine, publicly claiming that Russian troops are poorly led and equipped and have difficulty resisting the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

In my view the actions by Prigozhin are an act of desperation because he has lost the power struggle against Shoigu and is likely facing serious retaliation. Western media claims this is an attempted coup against Putin. That’s nonsense. The popularity of Putin within Russia and in the non-western world has never been higher. However this war between Prigozhin and Shoigu is an unwelcome distraction for the Kremlin and the most likely outcome will be the arrest or termination of Prigozhin”, writes political commentator Kim Dotcom on Twitter.

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Russia rules out talks between Putin and Zelensky without final agreement

The war in Ukraine

Published yesterday 10:10
– By Editorial Staff
Moscow says no to a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyj before a finished agreement is on the table.
2 minute read

Russia currently rules out a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, unless the parties first agree on the draft of a finished memorandum. This was stated by Vladimir Medinsky, the Kremlin’s lead negotiator in talks with Ukraine, in connection with the latest peace talks in Turkey.

Medinsky, one of the most prominent representatives of the Kremlin in the ongoing peace negotiations, emphasized that a personal meeting between the two leaders is only meaningful if they have already agreed on the terms of a peace agreement and are ready to sign it.

There’s no point in meeting only to begin negotiations from square one, he said, referring to previous summits that in practice prolonged the conflict rather than resolved it.

He also brought up historical cases where heads of state only met to sign already negotiated agreements, not to initiate new processes.

As an example, Medinsky mentioned the Chinese civil war in the 1940s:

Chiang Kai-shek constantly insisted on meeting in person to discuss everything. I believe they met five times, smiled, and posed for photographs, but it did not bring an end to the civil war. The core issues remained unresolved, and the war went on.

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed Medinsky’s line and stated that Russia considers such a meeting relevant only when a final agreement is in place.

The statements come at a time when the question of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is once again being discussed internationally as a possible path to peace in Ukraine.

Parties far apart from each other

Many diplomats and international actors, not least in the West, have for a long time advocated direct talks between the two leaders to break the diplomatic deadlock in the conflict.

Volodymyr Zelenskyj has previously expressed a willingness to meet Putin to discuss peace, but has also set demands including the withdrawal of Russian forces and confirmation of Ukraine’s sovereignty as prerequisites.

Russia, for its part, has consistently demanded that the talks should be based on Russian security interests, including control over certain territories – something that the Ukrainian government rejects.

Medinsky’s and Peskov’s statements underscore that Russia does not see any immediate room for a summit as long as the fundamental prerequisites for peace are not already established, which makes the conditions for direct dialogue continue to be difficult.

Ukraine’s parliament passes law undermining anti-corruption efforts

The war in Ukraine

Published 23 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
SAPO chief Oleksandr Klymenko (left) and NABU director Semen Kryvonos during a press conference in Kyiv after the parliament approved a bill that abolishes the independence of the two agencies.
2 minute read

Ukraine’s parliament adopted legislative amendments on Monday that severely limit the independence of the country’s two central anti-corruption agencies. The opposition and monitoring organizations warn that the reform “destroys” the agencies’ autonomy.

Parliament voted through legislative changes that give the prosecutor general new extensive powers over investigations led by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). The law was adopted with support from 263 parliamentarians, while 13 voted against and 13 abstained, writes The Kyiv Independent.

The legislative amendment still requires Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s signature to take effect, and the president has the option to veto it.

New powers draw criticism

Under the new law, the prosecutor general gains the authority to issue directives for NABU’s investigations or even transfer them to other agencies. The prosecutor general can also delegate SAPO’s powers to other prosecutors and close NABU investigations at the request of the judicial system.

The agencies themselves have reacted strongly to the changes. NABU announced in a statement that the amendments mean “destruction of NABU and SAPO’s independence and practically subordinate their activities to the prosecutor general”.

This is effectively the end of the work of two independent institutions, said Oleksandr Klymenko, head of SAPO, during a press conference after the vote.

NABU’s director, Semen Kryvonos, condemned the legislation and argued that it threatens Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. He also expressed hope that Zelensky would veto the law.

Just one day before the vote, several law enforcement agencies, including the prosecutor general’s office and the security service SBU, conducted extensive searches at NABU and SAPO. Fifteen NABU employees are being investigated for various crimes, from traffic violations to espionage.

Concerns over aid accountability

While anti-corruption efforts face pressure, questions have been raised about accountability for the extensive Western aid to Ukraine. Since February 2024, the West has provided approximately $314 billion in support, with the Pentagon acknowledging that over $1 billion in advanced weapons systems cannot be properly tracked – though without evidence of theft, but rather due to inadequate tracking systems under wartime conditions.

The most documented corruption case to date linked to Ukraine involves Poland, where the EU’s anti-fraud office, OLAF, discovered irregularities worth €91 million in a generator project for Ukraine. Within Ukraine itself, the security service revealed in January 2024 a corruption scandal worth $40 million where the defense ministry paid for shells that were never delivered.

International monitoring organizations maintain that various control mechanisms have been established, but developments regarding NABU and SAPO now raise concerns that future aid could be affected by weakened anti-corruption efforts.

Russian drone swarms break through Ukrainian air defenses at record pace

The war in Ukraine

Published 22 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
A Russian Geran drone strikes a building in Kiev, Ukraine in June.
2 minute read

Russia’s mass drone attacks are becoming increasingly successful. Hit rates have tripled during spring while Ukrainian defenses are overwhelmed by new swarm tactics and modified drones.

Russia’s intensified drone attacks against Ukraine are becoming increasingly successful, with drones hitting their targets in three times as many cases as before, according to official data from the Ukrainian air force.

Mass attacks with Shahed drones, originally of Iranian design but now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine’s severely strained air defenses. According to data from the Ukrainian air force, an average of about 15 percent of the drones penetrated defense lines between April and June – a sharp increase from 5 percent during the previous three months.

During the night leading to Monday, Russia conducted an extensive attack with 426 Shahed drones. On July 9, a record attack was seen with 728 drones and decoy drones, as well as several cruise missiles.

New tactics overwhelm defenses

Russia’s tactical innovations have included modifications that allow the drones to fly faster and at higher altitudes, beyond the range of the truck-mounted machine guns that Ukraine typically uses.

The problem is not that the Ukraine air defense is getting worse. Instead, what we see is that new swarming tactics and drones are now flying in higher altitude, which makes them more effective, says Yasir Atalan from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Russia has named its modified drones Geran, which means geranium in Russian. Geran-3, a turbine-powered variant that can fly up to 800 kilometers per hour, has been used against Kiev in recent weeks.

Ukraine develops countermeasures

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 10 that Ukraine is “already shooting down dozens of Shahed drones” with its domestically manufactured interceptor drones. Earlier in the month, he announced an agreement with the American company Swift Beat to co-produce hundreds of thousands of drones.

Our air defense forces are achieving good results with the new interceptor drones and they are performing particularly well, having shot down hundreds of Russian-Iranian Shaheds in a week, Zelenskyy said last week.

Andrew Turner, former air marshal in the Royal Air Force, describes the development as typical of air warfare:

It’s a constant duel and evolution between countermeasures against countermeasures against countermeasures. In Ukraine, this movement happens every 14 days, so it moves at great speed.

Hungary wants EU sanctions on Ukrainian forced conscription officers

The war in Ukraine

Published 16 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Hungarian Foreign Minister demands that those responsible must be held accountable for the murder and brutal assault of people who refused to go to war.
1 minute read

Following the Council of Europe report, the brutality surrounding forced recruitment patrols in Ukraine must be covered by EU human rights sanctions. This is the view of Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.

Referring to the Council of Europe report titled Memorandum on human rights elements for peace in Ukraine, dated July 8, 2025 and signed by the EU Commissioner for Human Rights, Michael O’Flaherty, Szijjártó points out that conscription in Ukraine involves murder, torture, brutal assault and brutal treatment.

— It is a fact that people are dying in Ukraine because of the brutality of the conscription officers, because they don’t want to go to war.

— Where are the NGOs, where are the Soros organizations, where are the so-called independent journalists, where are the human rights organizations, why do they not speak out and say that this manhunt on the streets of Ukraine is unacceptable? asks Péter Szijjártó.

Szijjártó emphasizes that they view it as unacceptable and “shocking” that European politicians remain indifferent to the brutality and stresses that they demand the responsible recruiters be placed on the EU’s human rights sanctions list.

— This is a bare minimum that the EU must do in this issue, he emphasizes.

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