Weapons from the war in the former Yugoslavia were then smuggled into Sweden and have since been used extensively by criminal gangs. Yet we seem to have learned nothing, and now the West's unrestricted supply of arms to Ukraine risks creating an even more serious situation in Europe.
This is an opinion piece. The author is responsible for the views expressed in the article.
In recent days, Swedish police have responded to several alarms about hand grenades, and according to explosives expert Professor Bo Janzon, the grenades are likely to have come from the Balkans.
As we know, hundreds of weapons seized in Sweden in recent years have been smuggled in as military weapons from the former Yugoslavia, many of which have been used by gang criminals in the never-ending spiral of violence.
But we have learned nothing, and of course the foolish decision by both Washington and the EU - including Sweden - to allow hundreds of billions of dollars worth of weapons to rain down on Ukraine for years without any control over where the weapons end up will have unpleasant consequences.
Speaking recently to members of the UN Security Council during a meeting on Ukraine, former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl noted that Europe will have to face the consequences of an uncontrolled arms market in Eastern and Central Europe, with consequences that will be worse than during the war in the former Yugoslavia.
In due course, we will surely hear our leaders tell the old lie - we didn't see it coming.
🇦🇹 Former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl stated at a UN Security Council meeting on arms supplies to Ukraine that the delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine threatens Europe with an increase in crime and terrorism.
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One of the deadliest police operations in modern Brazilian history ended in massive bloodshed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Tuesday.
At least 60 suspected gang members and four police officers were killed when 2,500 police and soldiers conducted a large-scale raid against the Comando Vermelho cartel in the favela areas of Complexo de Alemão and Penha.
The operation, which according to state governor Claudio Castro was the largest in Rio de Janeiro's history, involved police in helicopters and armored vehicles. During the violent shootouts, 81 suspects were arrested, while 93 rifles and over half a ton of drugs were seized.
Castro said in a video that around 60 criminal suspects were "neutralized" during the raid. According to the state government, "those killed resisted the police action" and an unknown number of people were injured.
The UN human rights office said it was "horrified" by the deadly police operation and reminded authorities of their obligations to comply with international law and human rights.
César Muñoz, head of Human Rights Watch in Brazil, called the events "a huge tragedy" and a "disaster".
— The public prosecutor's office must open its own investigations and clarify the circumstances of each death, Muñoz said.
Luis Flavio Sapori, a sociologist and security expert, described the scale of the operation as completely unprecedented.
— What's different about today's operation is the magnitude of the victims. These are war numbers, he said.
Sapori also criticized the operation as ineffective because it did not lead to the arrest of leaders but rather foot soldiers who can easily be replaced.
The police and state government, for their part, defend the operation and point out that it was preceded by a year-long investigation of the criminal network. Comando Vermelho, which emerged from Rio de Janeiro's prisons, has in recent years expanded its control over more and more favela areas and, according to authorities, poses a growing threat to security in the city.
Rio has been the scene of deadly police raids for decades. In May 2021, for example, 28 people were killed in the Jacarezinho favela, but Tuesday's operation was significantly larger in scale.
Montage. Photo: President of Ukraine, Rahib Hamidov/Pexels
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre views combating gang crime as a top priority and wants to stop the development before Norway ends up in the same situation as Sweden.
The same gang crime that has long plagued Sweden has now reached all Norwegian police districts. This was stated by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre during the Nordic Council session in Stockholm, Sweden, where he called for deeper cooperation between the Nordic countries to combat the crime.
During the Nordic summit in connection with the ongoing Nordic Council session in Stockholm, the Nordic prime ministers gathered together with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Crime was high on the agenda, particularly given that gang conflicts in Sweden have increasingly spread to neighboring countries in recent years.
Especially in Norway, Swedish criminal networks have expanded their operations, and Jonas Gahr Støre noted that traces of "Swedish" gang crime can now be found in all Norwegian police districts, which according to him underscores the cross-border nature of the problem.
— It is a less extensive problem in Norway than in Sweden, but for me it is a top priority to combat this, said the Norwegian prime minister.
Deeply concerned about Sweden's development
Gahr Støre welcomed that gang crime is now being discussed at the prime ministerial level, but simultaneously called for further intensification of cooperation. He wants the issue to be raised at upcoming meetings between the Nordic heads of government as well.
— What we see is that when such crime is allowed to develop, it becomes a very difficult task to push it back, warned the Norwegian leader, and continued:
— We have followed this societal problem that Sweden has had in recent years with deep concern.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson expressed understanding that the other Nordic countries want to avoid at all costs having Sweden's gang crime establish itself on their territories.
— Gang criminals respect no borders at all. We know that better than anyone since we are now physically apprehending them in completely different countries far away. They do not respect the Nordic borders and they abuse the openness that exists in the Nordic region. Our ambition is not to export gang criminals to Norway but to lock them up in Swedish prisons, he claimed.
The Swedish government has tasked the Swedish Prison and Probation Service (Kriminalvården) with preparing special youth prisons for 13- and 14-year-olds who commit serious crimes.
The purpose is to adapt the sentence execution to the child's age and to separate younger offenders from older youth, with the prison units set to be ready by summer.
The Swedish Prison and Probation Service has previously been tasked with preparing youth prisons for 15–17-year-olds convicted of serious crimes. Now the assignment is being expanded to also include criminals aged 13 and 14, in connection with the government's proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility for serious crimes.
In August 2023, the government received the report A review of regulations on custodial sentences for young people, which proposes that secure youth care be replaced with imprisonment in special youth units at existing facilities.
– Lowering the age of criminal responsibility for the most serious crimes is needed for several reasons. It is important to strengthen redress for crime victims, to protect society and to help children leave the criminal path. This also provides a five-year window for preventive work to catch up with today's reality. The Prison and Probation Service is now tasked with preparing operations in the best way to receive the youngest target group, says Swedish Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer.
Age-appropriate adaptation
The Prison and Probation Service must adapt both facilities and operations based on the children's age. Younger children must be kept separate from older youth, and operations must comply with the provisions of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.
– When 13–14-year-olds are running around with automatic weapons, it must be met with society's full force. To protect others, they must be able to be locked up, and by lowering the age of criminal responsibility, we open up the police's toolbox. It gives us a chance to both stop continued violence and turn around the development for these children before it's too late, says Henrik Vinge (Sweden Democrats), chair of the justice committee in the Swedish Parliament.
Torsten Elofsson, legal policy spokesperson for the Christian Democrats, points out that the need is urgent:
– The number of children, as young as 13–14 years old, committing serious violent crimes has increased dramatically. Measures to prevent this and to also take action after completed crimes are a must. At the same time, the execution needs to be adapted based on the perpetrator's age. It is welcome that the Prison and Probation Service is now tasked with examining how operations need to be adapted.
Martin Melin (Liberals) agrees:
– I have great confidence in the Prison and Probation Service and how they solve the strained situation they have, not least with the shortage of places. I am convinced that they will also be able to ensure that the 13 and 14-year-olds sentenced to prison will be taken care of in the best way.
Planned facilities and timeline
The Prison and Probation Service is planning special youth units for boys at the facilities in Högsbo, Rosersberg, Österåker, Kumla, Skenäs and Täby. For girls, units are planned at Ystad and Sagsjön. Implementation will occur in stages, and not all units will be operational from July 1, 2026.
On September 24, the Ministry of Justice sent out for consultation a draft legislative proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 13 years for crimes with a minimum sentence of four years' imprisonment or more, as well as for attempts, preparation and conspiracy to commit such crimes. The proposal is currently time-limited to five years.
The number of minors suspected of planning murders has skyrocketed in a short time, according to new figures from the Swedish Prosecution Authority. More than 120 children under 15 are currently under investigation for planning deadly violence.
At the same time, the Swedish government reports that the fight against gang crime shows some progress – but the development raises concerns.
The government's initiative against gangs has been a central part of the Tidö Agreement between the governing parties and the Sweden Democrats. Three years after the cooperation began, several sentences have been toughened, the justice system has received increased resources, and police have gained access to new tools.
Despite this, it remains unclear whether organized crime is actually decreasing. However, one clearly positive trend is that the number of shootings has decreased sharply in recent years.
According to police statistics, 314 shootings occurred through September 2022. During the same period this year, the number has dropped to 113. The number of fatal shootings has decreased from 49 to 26 during the corresponding period – excluding the ten people killed in the attack at Risbergska School in Örebro, central Sweden.
Police assess that more violent crimes are being stopped in time thanks to expanded possibilities for secret surveillance and other intelligence methods. More murder investigations are also being solved, according to the authority.
Antalet barn under 15 år som misstänks för inblandning i mordplaner ökar dramatiskt i Sverige. Mellan januari och september 2022 misstänktes 14 barn under 15 år för mordplaner. Under samma period i år är siffran 127.
Samtidigt i MP ♀️ pic.twitter.com/lN1LZxAA54
At the same time, the trend points in the opposite direction regarding bombings and arson attacks. These have increased but rarely lead to fatalities. Recently, many of the bombings have been carried out with powerful pyrotechnics instead of military explosives.
Police also see successes on the international front. So far this year, 183 gang-connected individuals have been arrested abroad – a record figure – of which 35 are classified as so-called priority actors. Despite this, the total circle of gang criminals is not assessed to be decreasing.
According to police's latest situation report from autumn 2024, around 14,000 people are actively involved in the gang environment and an additional 48,000 have connections to it. When the next report is presented in November, the numbers are expected to rise.
Directing crime from abroad
Police also estimate that approximately 700 gang criminals now operate from abroad – an increase of 100 people since previous calculations.
The most concerning trend, however, involves children and young people. In 2022, 14 children under 15 were suspected of involvement in murder plots. This year, the figure has risen to 127, according to new data from the Swedish Prosecution Authority.
The suspicions mainly concern attempted murder, preparation, conspiracy and aiding and abetting murder, but also nine completed murders and a couple of cases of incitement.
Bombings are increasing alarmingly in Sweden (archive image Uppsala, Sep. 2023). Photo: Facsimile/Aftonbladet Play/YT
Children recruiting children
According to the Swedish Ministry of Justice, children are often recruited via social media, where gang criminals post orders for violent acts. A growing trend is also that children themselves recruit other children. Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer (Moderate Party) believes that crime has not worsened, but that it has changed character.
Criminologist Manne Gerell assesses that the development is largely moving in the right direction: – The best indicator for me is how many people die or are seriously injured, and there we have seen a massive decrease in shootings.
Gerell believes the decrease is mainly due to increased resources for police rather than individual reforms in the Tidö Agreement: – Everything else is small puzzle pieces that individually could hardly have played any role, he says.
Among the measures that have had the least effect, he mentions the visitation zones, which have been used less than expected and have not produced any clear results.
Police simultaneously warn that the level of violence within gangs remains high and that new spirals of violence may arise: – One concern is that hundreds of children and young people who were taken for involvement in these crimes a few years ago will, to a large extent, be back on the streets soon if they aren't already, says Manne Gerell.
