Russia’s mass drone attacks are becoming increasingly successful. Hit rates have tripled during spring while Ukrainian defenses are overwhelmed by new swarm tactics and modified drones.

Russia’s intensified drone attacks against Ukraine are becoming increasingly successful, with drones hitting their targets in three times as many cases as before, according to official data from the Ukrainian air force.

Mass attacks with Shahed drones, originally of Iranian design but now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine’s severely strained air defenses. According to data from the Ukrainian air force, an average of about 15 percent of the drones penetrated defense lines between April and June – a sharp increase from 5 percent during the previous three months.

During the night leading to Monday, Russia conducted an extensive attack with 426 Shahed drones. On July 9, a record attack was seen with 728 drones and decoy drones, as well as several cruise missiles.

New tactics overwhelm defenses

Russia’s tactical innovations have included modifications that allow the drones to fly faster and at higher altitudes, beyond the range of the truck-mounted machine guns that Ukraine typically uses.

— The problem is not that the Ukraine air defense is getting worse. Instead, what we see is that new swarming tactics and drones are now flying in higher altitude, which makes them more effective, says Yasir Atalan from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Russia has named its modified drones Geran, which means geranium in Russian. Geran-3, a turbine-powered variant that can fly up to 800 kilometers per hour, has been used against Kiev in recent weeks.

Ukraine develops countermeasures

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 10 that Ukraine is “already shooting down dozens of Shahed drones” with its domestically manufactured interceptor drones. Earlier in the month, he announced an agreement with the American company Swift Beat to co-produce hundreds of thousands of drones.

— Our air defense forces are achieving good results with the new interceptor drones and they are performing particularly well, having shot down hundreds of Russian-Iranian Shaheds in a week, Zelenskyy said last week.

Andrew Turner, former air marshal in the Royal Air Force, describes the development as typical of air warfare:

— It’s a constant duel and evolution between countermeasures against countermeasures against countermeasures. In Ukraine, this movement happens every 14 days, so it moves at great speed.