Thursday, July 31, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

Argentina’s BRICS rejection: A gamble amid economic turmoil

Published 29 November 2023
– By Sukanya Saha
3 minute read

In the labyrinth of Argentina’s economic woes, President Javier Milei’s recent rejection of BRICS membership adds a new layer of complexity to the nation’s uphill battle against inflation, dwindling foreign reserves, and a looming debt crisis.

Argentina’s economic narrative reads like a tale of multiple currencies and a precarious financial tightrope. With inflation rates soaring well above 140 per cent, and an official exchange rate at odds with the elusive “blue dollar,” Argentina’s economic landscape is a patchwork of uncertainty.

The recent decision to pay international debts in Chinese yuan, leveraging a standing swap line with China, reflects the urgency and creativity required to navigate this financial maze.

As Argentina grapples with a severe shortage of foreign exchange, exacerbated by drought conditions and a poor harvest, the rejection of BRICS+ membership raises eyebrows. The BRICS alliance, with its economic prowess and diverse resources, could potentially offer Argentina a lifeline to weather the storm.

One of the primary advantages of BRICS+ membership lies in the access to a diverse array of markets and resources. For a nation like Argentina, grappling with inflation and a shortage of foreign exchange reserves, the benefits of aligning with a coalition of emerging economic giants are hard to ignore. These nations collectively represent a vast consumer market and a rich tapestry of industries, offering Argentina the prospect of new trade avenues and investment opportunities.

President Milei’s libertarian ideals emphasise a minimalistic approach to government intervention, but the rejection of BRICS+ raises questions about the administration’s commitment to fostering economic growth. In an era where economic interdependence is the norm, opting for isolation might hinder Argentina’s ability to attract foreign investment and forge mutually beneficial partnerships.

It’s also crucial to consider the geopolitical chessboard. In rejecting BRICS+, Argentina may find itself sidelined in discussions that shape the rules of the global economic game. As this alliance solidifies its influence, decisions made within its confines could impact trade agreements, currency valuations, and economic policies worldwide. By refusing a seat at this table, Argentina may inadvertently forfeit a voice in shaping the rules that govern its economic destiny.

However, President Milei’s administration appears to be steering towards economic autonomy, even as the nation faces the pressing need for external support.

The urgent need for Argentina is crystal clear: reduce inflation. Yet, the path to achieving this goal is riddled with challenges. The central bank, burdened with short-term, peso-denominated treasury bills and a precarious interest income scenario, must navigate the balance between controlling inflation and preventing a currency freefall.

The question of debt is paramount. Argentina’s outstanding international bonds, valued at a mere 30 cents on the dollar, signal an impending restructuring. While the global market might not be shocked by Argentina’s restructuring, the country’s $45 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) underscores the critical importance of a realistic repayment plan.

Argentina’s actions and policies resonate far beyond its borders, influencing the IMF’s lending approach and potentially setting legal precedents in sovereign debt enforcement.

The real-world experiment lies in the hands of the Argentine president. If Milei’s proposal to dollarise the economy becomes reality, it could redefine the understanding of a country’s debt carrying capacity. Dollarisation may offer a semblance of stability, but the risk of a deep default looms large, turning all domestic debts into a claim on Argentina’s non-existent dollar reserves.

In rejecting BRICS+, Argentina appears to be charting its own course. Whether this bold move proves to be a masterstroke or a miscalculation remains to be seen. As the world watches, Argentina stands at the intersection of economic uncertainty and the quest for autonomy, navigating uncharted waters with the hopes of finding a solution that will reshape its destiny.

Sukanya Saha is a contributing editor at The Nordic Times. Based in New Delhi, she is an accomplished journalist who has previously worked with several major Indian media outlets such as NDTV, India Today, IANS, and Jagran English. Currently, she is associated with Hindustan Times. In 2022, she topped the BRICS International Journalism Programme from India. Committed to understanding the complex dynamics that shape our world, Sukanya's passions range from world politics to science and space exploration.

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Powerful earthquake triggers tsunami warnings across four continents

Published yesterday 9:48
– By Editorial Staff
The tsunami reaches several coastlines, including Severo-Kurilsk on Paramushir Island in Russia's Kuril Islands chain. The image on the right has been released by Russian authorities.
3 minute read

An 8.8 magnitude earthquake off Russia’s eastern coast has led to tsunami warnings in over twenty countries. Waves exceeding four meters have already reached several coastal areas and millions of people have been ordered to evacuate beach areas.

The powerful earthquake occurred on July 30, 2025, off the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s far east and is the strongest since the Tōhoku earthquake in 2011. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 136 kilometers east of the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

Tsunami warnings have been issued for the USA, Russia, Japan, Canada, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan and China. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has warned that “a tsunami with significant widespread inundation is expected”.

First waves reach Hawaii and Japan

The first tsunami waves have already reached Hawaii, where waves exceeding 1.5 meters have been reported at Kahului on the island of Maui. Hawaii Governor Josh Green urged residents to immediately evacuate coastal areas.

It is, again, not just a 3-foot wave. It is a forceful wall of water, Green said during a press conference.

In Japan, the first waves measuring 30 centimeters in height have reached the northernmost island of Hokkaido. The country’s meteorological institute has warned of waves up to three meters along Japan’s eastern coast and urged over 1.9 million people to seek safer areas.

Extensive damage in Russia

In Russia, the earthquake has caused extensive damage in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, home to 181,000 people. According to Russian news media, many rushed out onto the streets without shoes and outerwear when the earthquake struck. A kindergarten collapsed and the power grid was damaged.

Tsunami waves measuring 3-4 meters in height have been recorded in the Yelizovo district on Kamchatka. The small port town of Severo-Kurilsk on the Kuril Islands was completely flooded and 2,000 residents were evacuated. Video footage shows water rushing between buildings, carrying boats and containers.

Warnings stretch across the Pacific

Tsunami warnings now cover large parts of the Pacific coast. In the USA, the highest warning level applies to Hawaii, parts of Alaska and northern California. Less severe advisories have been issued for the rest of the American west coast and parts of British Columbia in Canada.

Waves of 1-3 meters are expected to reach Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Costa Rica. Mexico’s navy has warned of waves up to one meter along the Pacific coast and urged people to stay away from beaches.

The Philippines, where authorities have warned of tsunami waves smaller than one meter, and New Zealand have also issued warnings about “strong and unusual currents”.

Robert Weis, tsunami expert at Virginia Tech, stated that the event should be taken seriously: “It’s right to be concerned about this event”.

The earthquake, which USGS has classified with a rare red warning level, could become one of the strongest ever measured and is estimated to potentially cause billions of dollars in damage.

Comment: EU will work on Washington’s terms – with higher prices as a bonus

Donald Trump's USA

Published yesterday 9:00
– By Jenny Piper
1 minute read
This is an opinion piece. The author is responsible for the views expressed in the article.

US President Donald Trump has announced that the US and EU have reached a trade agreement whereby EU countries will open their markets for trade with the US without tariffs while EU goods will be subject to 15% import tariffs. The EU also agreed to purchase energy resources from the US worth $750 billion and to buy large quantities of American military equipment.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen looks very pleased in the photo despite having sold out the EU countries, but the woman who has given corruption in Brussels a face is probably satisfied with the reward awaiting her for good cooperation.

This will cost the European population, which is already carrying a heavy economic burden, not to mention European industry that is collapsing in the wake of Brussels’ policies that have made production in the EU too expensive after cutting off cheap electricity from Russia that was the cornerstone of German industry, among others. The US will likely also buy oil from Russia and resell it to the EU at a profit – Putin and Trump have every reason to smile.

The US thus achieved its goal of removing competitor EU from the Russian market, and now the vassals in Europe will work entirely on Washington’s terms – with higher prices as a bonus that we pay.

 

Jenny Piper

All Jenny Piper's articles can be found on her blog.

China introduces national child allowances to reverse demographic decline

The modern China

Published 29 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Many local Chinese authorities, such as Hohhot, the capital of Inner Mongolia, have already introduced their own child allowances to encourage childbearing.
3 minute read

China is implementing its largest-ever initiative to increase the country’s declining birth rate by offering all parents national child allowances. Each child under three years old entitles parents to approximately €500 annually in state support.

The Chinese government presented a comprehensive reform on Monday where parents will annually receive about $500 per child under three years old, equivalent to approximately €500. The decision comes as a direct response to the country’s serious demographic crisis where the population has declined for three consecutive years, reports AFP according to France 24.

According to UN population projections, China risks seeing its population drop from today’s 1.4 billion inhabitants to 800 million by 2100. Last year, only 9.54 million children were born in the country – half as many as in 2016, the year when the controversial one-child policy was abolished after more than three decades.

“This is a major nationwide policy aimed at improving public wellbeing”, reported the state television channel CCTV. The support applies retroactively from January 1 this year and is based on a decision from the ruling Communist Party and the State Council.

Parents welcome initiative but want more

In Beijing, parents have received the news positively, but many believe significantly more is needed for them to consider having more children.

For young couples who just got married and already have a baby, it might actually encourage them to consider having a second child, says Wang Xue, who is mother to a nine-year-old son.

The subsidy does help ease their burdens… and also offers some psychological comfort, Wang continues.

The 36-year-old mother emphasizes, however, that the new measures are not enough to convince her to have another child.

Having one child is manageable, but if I had two, I might feel a bit of financial pressure, she says.

Zhang Wei, a 34-year-old father of a daughter and a son, calls the new allowances “a good start” as the costs of raising children continue to rise.

Compared to our generation, the costs have definitely increased exponentially, he notes.

Analysts: Right direction but insufficient

Economic experts believe the allowances are a step in the right direction but warn that the measures alone will not reverse population decline or stimulate domestic consumption.

It is encouraging that the government finally moved to use fiscal subsidies to boost fertility, says Zhiwei Zhang, CEO and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, describes the policy as a “major milestone” regarding direct payments to households and believes it could lay the foundation for more tax transfers in the future. He notes, however, that the amounts are too small to have “any short-term impact on birth rates or consumption.”

Local initiatives already in place

Many local authorities have already introduced their own child allowances to encourage childbearing. In March, Hohhot, the capital of Inner Mongolia, began offering residents up to 100,000 yuan (€12,000) per newborn child for couples with three or more children. First and second children entitle parents to 10,000 and 50,000 yuan in allowances respectively.

In Shenyang, in northeastern Liaoning province, families who have a third child receive 500 yuan per month until the child turns three. More than 20 provincial authorities now offer various forms of child allowances according to official statistics.

Prime Minister Li Qiang promised to provide national child allowances during the government’s annual work report in March.

Aging population creates concern

China’s shrinking population is also aging rapidly, raising concerns about the country’s future pension system. In 2024, there were nearly 310 million inhabitants who were 60 years or older.

The country also lost its position as the world’s most populous nation to India in 2023, after the population decreased by 1.39 million last year. Low marriage rates and young couples’ concerns about high child-rearing costs and career impact contribute to the continued decline in the number of births.

Netherlands identifies Israel as threat actor in new security report

Published 28 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Archive photo: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and parts of the destruction in Gaza.
2 minute read

The Netherlands’ counter-terrorism authority has included Israel in its latest report as one of the state actors assessed to pose a threat to the country’s security. The country is thus placed alongside Iran, North Korea and Turkey, among others.

The Netherlands’ National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) published on July 17, 2025, its annual report “Assessment of threats from state actors 2025” (Beoordeling Dreigingen door Staatactoren 2025), where Israel is listed for the first time as a security-threatening actor.

Israel’s placement on the list is linked to assessments that the country uses informal methods to influence public opinion and political decision-making in the Netherlands, reports The Jerusalem Post, among others.

The report refers specifically to an incident in Amsterdam in November 2024, when Israeli supporters of the football team Maccabi Tel Aviv were attacked. After the incident, a report was distributed from the Israeli side containing details about the suspects, including their names.

However, the report was not distributed through official diplomatic channels but was sent directly to selected politicians and journalists in the Netherlands. The NCTV emphasizes that this may have contributed to individuals being subjected to threats, intimidation or, in the worst case, attacks.

The report part of a broader analysis

In addition to the Amsterdam incident, the report also points to Israel’s pressure on the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands. The NCTV’s assessment is that such methods can undermine the Netherlands’ sovereignty and create division in the political and media landscape.

Israel is thus mentioned on two separate occasions in the report, which underscores the growing attention surrounding the country’s active foreign policy and security-related influence within Europe.

In the report, Israel is classified alongside other countries such as North Korea, Iran, Russia and Turkey, all of which are assessed to use similar strategies to influence and destabilize foreign governments and societies.

However, Dutch authorities emphasize that the report is part of a broader analysis of international security threats and does not necessarily imply diplomatic action against Israel at present.

Israel’s growing influence causes concern

In addition to the report, there are analysts who believe that the ongoing Gaza war should also be seen as a cause of the deteriorating relationship between the two countries. The Netherlands is one of few Western countries that has advocated a more critical stance toward Israel’s actions.

The international community is monitoring developments, where some European countries have expressed concern about Israel’s growing influence in democratic processes on the continent. On the other hand, continued diplomatic channels and talks exist to reduce tensions.

The Netherlands’ latest threat report is a clear example of how European security authorities are broadening their assessments of potential threats – beyond the traditional picture – and ensuring that indirect and informal influence methods are also brought to attention.

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