Emmanuele Todd, known not least for predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union, argues that a Russian victory in Ukraine would likely mean the dissolution of NATO, freeing Europe from the political grip of the United States.

In his latest book, Defeat of the West, he also rejects the idea of an expansionist Russia, suggesting instead that a Russian loss in the war would likely prolong Europe’s subjugation to the US for a century.

Emmanuele Todd, known for his controversial positions, believes that the war in Ukraine will determine the future of the European continent, especially in terms of Europe’s political subservience to the US.

– If, as I believe, the US is defeated [via Ukrainian defeat], NATO will dissolve and Europe will be left free, Todd said in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere di Bologna.

According to Todd, the US has used NATO for decades to keep a tight grip on Europe, preventing independent decision-making. He argues that this does not only apply to security policy, but also affects economic and social decisions.

If Russia were to win the war in Ukraine, Todd believes this would indirectly force a change in the European balance of power.

– The psychological shock that awaits Europeans is to realize that NATO does not exist to protect us, but to control us, he says.

Russian expansionism “ridiculous for a serious historian”

The historian further argues that the notion in Sweden that Russia would like to expand militarily into Western Europe is out of touch with reality and that after having restored the borders to pre-communist Russia, it has neither the resources nor the interest to expand further.

– The Russophobic hysteria in the West, which fantasizes about Russian expansion in Europe, is simply ridiculous to a serious historian, Todd says.

Todd also describes how US industrial power has weakened as the financial sector has taken over the economy, affecting its ability to produce the military equipment Ukraine needs. Meanwhile, according to Todd, Western sanctions have also hurt Europe’s economy more than Russia’s.

– The restructuring of the Russian economy has been made possible by the fact that this country produces more engineers than the United States and by the fact that countries that are not allies or subjects of the United States have continued to trade with Russia.

Todd predicts that the combined defeat of the United States and Ukraine in the war would result in the dissolution of NATO and the liberation of Europe from American dependence, leading to a new geopolitical order on the continent.

The moral crisis of the West

In addition to geopolitical aspects, Todd’s book also discusses Europe’s religious decadence and how this affects the moral fabric of society. He describes how European societies have reached a state of religious emptiness, leading to what he calls “destructive nihilism“.

– The absence of beliefs… leaves people with the anxiety of being mortal, Todd explains.

He sees this as a fundamental driving force behind ideologies such as the transgender movement, which he points out runs counter to biological realities.

– The most banal reaction to this emptiness is to deify emptiness: nihilism, which leads to the impulse to destroy things, people and reality. A key symptom of this, for me, is the transgender ideology that makes our upper middle classes want to believe that a man can become a woman and a woman a man. This is a claim of the false. The biology of the genetic code tells us that this is impossible. I speak here as an anthropologist, as a scientist and not as a moralist.

Todd says he doesn’t see himself as a moralist but primarily as a scientist, and that’s how he wrote the book. It has received both praise and criticism, but Todd himself insists that his analysis is objective and grounded in reality.

– I am not pro-Russian. But I read Putin’s and Lavrov’s texts and I think I understand their goals and logic. If our leaders had taken scientists like me and some others more seriously, they would not have led us to such a disaster.

In Sweden, The Defeat of the West has been published by Karneval förlag.