Tech billionaire Elon Musk warns that Europe risks "dying out" unless birth rates increase. His statement comes after new figures from Scotland showing 34 percent more deaths than births during the first half of 2025.
In a post on X on Saturday, Musk commented on the grim statistics from Scotland with the words: "Unless the birth rate at least gets back to replacement rate, Europe will die out".
Unless the birth rate at least gets back to replacement rate, Europe will die out https://t.co/0COU5Zj9QM
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 30, 2025
The replacement rate – the average number of children per couple required for a population to replace itself – is generally 2.1 children per woman. This figure accounts for child mortality and the nearly even gender distribution at birth. New studies suggest, however, that this level may be insufficient and that the long-term survival threshold actually lies closer to 2.7 children per woman.
And available statistics give Musk grounds for his concern. According to the UK's Office for National Statistics, the birth rate in England and Wales fell to 1.4 children per woman in 2024, while Scotland's figure remained at 1.3 – far below replacement level. Within the EU, fertility has declined for several years and reached a record low of 1.4 live births per woman in 2023.
Global decline
Musk, who is himself father to at least 14 children and has donated millions of dollars to fertility research, has repeatedly warned about demographic decline in Europe. His warnings extend beyond that, however. Citing global demographic data, he has claimed that civilization "will collapse" unless birth rates rise.
The tech billionaire has also previously argued that population collapse due to low fertility "is a much bigger risk to civilization" than alleged climate change.
Either Europe starts having large families or it will keep dying https://t.co/UNX72ZRn98
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 14, 2025
Globally, fertility has declined for over 50 years. UN data shows that it stood at approximately 2.2 births per woman in 2024, a sharp decrease from 5 in the 1970s and 3.3 in the 1990s.
Only 45 percent of the world's countries and territories – home to roughly one-third of the global population – reported fertility levels at or above 2.1 last year, and only 13 percent had birth rates of 4.0 or higher, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan, Sudan and Yemen.
Sweden follows the same pattern
Sweden also follows the downward trend with historically low birth rates. For 2024, the birth rate stood at only 1.43 children per woman – the lowest figure ever recorded in the country.
This figure would likely have been significantly lower if statistics had not included people with immigrant backgrounds from cultures that traditionally have considerably more children than native-born Swedes.
Due to continued mass migration from the developing world, Sweden's population continues to grow despite record-low birth rates. But population growth is occurring much more slowly than previously, and during the first half of 2025, Sweden's population increased by only 5,000 people.
