Since the beginning of the year, Russia has been consolidating and expanding its positions with the largest territorial advance since the beginning of the war. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling on the US and its allies to step up arms deliveries.
Russia has intensified its offensive along the frontlines in Ukraine in recent months, securing its largest territorial gains since 2022.
The ongoing expansion, including concerns about Russia’s upcoming summer offensive, has set off alarm bells in Kiev and among its Western allies. A coalition that now fears for Ukraine’s very existence, as well as the overall geopolitical stability of the region.
According to Ukrainian military analysts, the ongoing Russian offensive has created a critical situation for Ukraine, where the support of the United States and Western countries, according to those in power in Kiev, plays a crucial role in the country’s continued defense capability and survival.
Collapse in Avdiyivka
After a long wait for US military aid that was finally approved – via what critics say was a major betrayal by Republican congressional spokesman Mike Johnson (R) – Ukraine is now facing an increased Russian military presence along the front lines.
Something that has seriously tested the country’s defense capabilities. Not least its air defense and air force, which are more or less non-existent on some front lines. Add to this the staggering and deeply disturbing loss of some half a million Ukrainian soldiers, dead, wounded and missing.
Russian forces have taken advantage of the artillery shortage that has plagued Ukraine’s defenses since December 2023 to advance along the eastern front, with particular success near the heavily fortified and logistically important town of Avdiyivka, located in the center of the Donetsk region.
Lage bei #Avdiivka weiterhin schlecht
Nach dem Abwehrfehler bei #Ocheretyne konnte der Angriffskeil nicht eingehegt werden. Russland besetzte Soloviove und erhielt schließlich auch Kontrolle über #Novokalynove und Keramik.#Nevelske gerät aus Richtung #Pervomaiske unter Druck. pic.twitter.com/aLkaWS580b
— Piratosoph📯 (@Gernot_Koepke) May 2, 2024
This tactical advance has seriously alarmed Ukrainian military leaders, who are now warning of the threat to key supply lines and strategic areas in eastern Ukraine.
According to the latest reports from the front, Russian forces have taken control of their initial positions in the village of Arkhanhelske (Kherson Oblast), leading Ukrainian troops to encircle the area between Arkhanhelske and Keramik. According to reliable sources, Russian forces have also captured the village of Paraskoviivka.
There is also a high level of activity in Chasiv Yar, where several houses have reportedly been secured by Russian forces. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops have launched a counterattack east of Yampolivka and managed to regain lost positions along the edge of the forest.
Despite international calls and Ukrainian appeals for additional military and economic assistance, Russia has continued to advance toward Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar, for example, further weakening Ukraine’s defensive position.
Kharkov next?
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has issued an urgent appeal to Western countries for a sharp increase in military supplies to bolster Ukraine’s defenses. He has stressed the urgency of the situation and sounded the alarm about the growing risk of what he sees as further Russian invasion or territorial expansion.
For example, there are indications that the Russian army is currently building up troops and materiel on the border northeast of Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv.
This possible army corps (approximately two to four divisions), according to several sources, would be under the Northern Army Group, designated “N”, under the presumed command of Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin.
As Ukraine struggles to reinforce its fortifications along the front lines, not to mention desperately trying to find men to fill its severely depleted manpower lines, the country now faces an uncertain future in the face of what is believed to be an imminent Russian summer offensive, where Russian advances threaten to fundamentally change the geopolitical dynamics in the region.
If the Russian army does advance into Ukraine through the Kharkiv-Sumy border, Volodymyr Zelenskyi will likely face his greatest challenge since the war began on February 22, 2022.
