Friday, August 1, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

Russia plans large buffer zone in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine

  • Russia declares its intention to establish a deep security zone on Ukrainian territory to protect its own regions from Western weapons.
  • Meanwhile, both Russia and Ukraine report record drone and missile attacks over the weekend - with significant casualties and material destruction.
  • Here's the latest we know about developments.
Published 27 May 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Russian FPV drone destroys Ukrainian Armed Forces pickup truck near Kolodiazne. Source: X/@MilitarySummary
4 minute read

In a statement on Telegram, Russia’s former president and current Security Council member Dmitry Medvedev declared that a Russian victory would require Ukraine to effectively cede a large part of its territory. A proposed buffer zone would extend up to 60 kilometers into Ukrainian territory – with the aim of eliminating the threat from long-range missiles such as Storm Shadow and ATACMS, according to information from sources including voiceofest.

– A demilitarized zone must be created that makes it impossible to use even long-range weapons against our territory, Medvedev himself commented via Telegram.

The proposal comes as the Russian army continues its advance in the Kharkiv region – an area that, according to Moscow, is not intended to become part of Russia, but will be included in the buffer zone.

According to Business Insider, there are also reports of a much larger buffer zone, a zone that essentially encompasses the whole of Ukraine. It is unclear whether these reports represent official Russian policy or are rather propaganda and speculation.

Largest air strike since the war began

On Saturday night, Russia launched what is said to be the largest coordinated air strike against Ukraine to date. According to the Ukrainian Defense Staff, a total of 367 drones and missiles were fired in a massive attack targeting Kiev, Lviv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, and Dnipro, among other locations.

The Ukrainian air defense claims that 266 drones and 45 cruise missiles were shot down, but the attacks still resulted in civilian deaths, including three children in Zhytomyr. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the attack as “terrorism” and demanded further sanctions from the West.

Any silence after such attacks means complicity in terror, he said in a speech.

Patriot batteries destroyed and Ukrainian drone offensive

In a follow-up attack on Thursday, two American Patriot systems were reportedly destroyed in the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. An AN/MPQ-65 radar station is also said to have been destroyed.

Images and satellite data from the site suggest that an Iskander-M missile may have hit the site, leading to speculation about weaknesses in the Ukrainian air defense network. Ukraine has not yet confirmed the loss, but several explosion clouds were observed in the area on the same day.

Ukraine responded with extensive drone attacks against Russian territory. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, at least 96 Ukrainian drones were shot down on Monday night, several of them in Belgorod, Kursk, and even over the Moscow region.

Several of the attacks targeted infrastructure, including oil refineries in Krasnodar and oil depots in Kaluga.

A notable incident occurred during President Putin’s visit to the Kursk region, where a Ukrainian drone exploded near the helicopter that was taking him to a meeting. The incident was confirmed in Russian media, but Putin is not believed to have been injured.

Possible Russian summer offensive?

The much-discussed buffer zone shows what a potential Russian security zone could look like, depending on which information is considered reliable. Regardless of the version, a security zone would in practice make large parts of present-day Ukraine uninhabitable for Ukrainian military activity.

Several military analysts believe that the intensity of this weekend’s attacks – combined with the statement on the buffer zone – could signal an imminent escalation on the Russian side.

A summer offensive against the city of Zaporizhzhya, combined with an expanded bridgehead across the Dnieper, or alternatively a pincer movement on the city of Pokrovsk, are two possible scenarios.

The ability to knock out US defense systems and extend the range of drones and ballistic missiles appears to have strengthened Russian operational confidence. However, Ukrainian forces continue to hold certain front lines in Donbas and north of Avdiivka, although resources there are severely strained.

The situation in Ukraine remains very serious, with escalating attacks and strategic maneuvers on both sides. A potential buffer zone and intensified offensives could definitely influence the development of the conflict during the summer of 2025.

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Russia rules out talks between Putin and Zelensky without final agreement

The war in Ukraine

Published 25 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Moscow says no to a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyj before a finished agreement is on the table.
2 minute read

Russia currently rules out a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, unless the parties first agree on the draft of a finished memorandum. This was stated by Vladimir Medinsky, the Kremlin’s lead negotiator in talks with Ukraine, in connection with the latest peace talks in Turkey.

Medinsky, one of the most prominent representatives of the Kremlin in the ongoing peace negotiations, emphasized that a personal meeting between the two leaders is only meaningful if they have already agreed on the terms of a peace agreement and are ready to sign it.

There’s no point in meeting only to begin negotiations from square one, he said, referring to previous summits that in practice prolonged the conflict rather than resolved it.

He also brought up historical cases where heads of state only met to sign already negotiated agreements, not to initiate new processes.

As an example, Medinsky mentioned the Chinese civil war in the 1940s:

Chiang Kai-shek constantly insisted on meeting in person to discuss everything. I believe they met five times, smiled, and posed for photographs, but it did not bring an end to the civil war. The core issues remained unresolved, and the war went on.

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed Medinsky’s line and stated that Russia considers such a meeting relevant only when a final agreement is in place.

The statements come at a time when the question of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is once again being discussed internationally as a possible path to peace in Ukraine.

Parties far apart from each other

Many diplomats and international actors, not least in the West, have for a long time advocated direct talks between the two leaders to break the diplomatic deadlock in the conflict.

Volodymyr Zelenskyj has previously expressed a willingness to meet Putin to discuss peace, but has also set demands including the withdrawal of Russian forces and confirmation of Ukraine’s sovereignty as prerequisites.

Russia, for its part, has consistently demanded that the talks should be based on Russian security interests, including control over certain territories – something that the Ukrainian government rejects.

Medinsky’s and Peskov’s statements underscore that Russia does not see any immediate room for a summit as long as the fundamental prerequisites for peace are not already established, which makes the conditions for direct dialogue continue to be difficult.

Ukraine’s parliament passes law undermining anti-corruption efforts

The war in Ukraine

Published 23 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
SAPO chief Oleksandr Klymenko (left) and NABU director Semen Kryvonos during a press conference in Kyiv after the parliament approved a bill that abolishes the independence of the two agencies.
2 minute read

Ukraine’s parliament adopted legislative amendments on Monday that severely limit the independence of the country’s two central anti-corruption agencies. The opposition and monitoring organizations warn that the reform “destroys” the agencies’ autonomy.

Parliament voted through legislative changes that give the prosecutor general new extensive powers over investigations led by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). The law was adopted with support from 263 parliamentarians, while 13 voted against and 13 abstained, writes The Kyiv Independent.

The legislative amendment still requires Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s signature to take effect, and the president has the option to veto it.

New powers draw criticism

Under the new law, the prosecutor general gains the authority to issue directives for NABU’s investigations or even transfer them to other agencies. The prosecutor general can also delegate SAPO’s powers to other prosecutors and close NABU investigations at the request of the judicial system.

The agencies themselves have reacted strongly to the changes. NABU announced in a statement that the amendments mean “destruction of NABU and SAPO’s independence and practically subordinate their activities to the prosecutor general”.

This is effectively the end of the work of two independent institutions, said Oleksandr Klymenko, head of SAPO, during a press conference after the vote.

NABU’s director, Semen Kryvonos, condemned the legislation and argued that it threatens Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. He also expressed hope that Zelensky would veto the law.

Just one day before the vote, several law enforcement agencies, including the prosecutor general’s office and the security service SBU, conducted extensive searches at NABU and SAPO. Fifteen NABU employees are being investigated for various crimes, from traffic violations to espionage.

Concerns over aid accountability

While anti-corruption efforts face pressure, questions have been raised about accountability for the extensive Western aid to Ukraine. Since February 2024, the West has provided approximately $314 billion in support, with the Pentagon acknowledging that over $1 billion in advanced weapons systems cannot be properly tracked – though without evidence of theft, but rather due to inadequate tracking systems under wartime conditions.

The most documented corruption case to date linked to Ukraine involves Poland, where the EU’s anti-fraud office, OLAF, discovered irregularities worth €91 million in a generator project for Ukraine. Within Ukraine itself, the security service revealed in January 2024 a corruption scandal worth $40 million where the defense ministry paid for shells that were never delivered.

International monitoring organizations maintain that various control mechanisms have been established, but developments regarding NABU and SAPO now raise concerns that future aid could be affected by weakened anti-corruption efforts.

Russian drone swarms break through Ukrainian air defenses at record pace

The war in Ukraine

Published 22 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
A Russian Geran drone strikes a building in Kiev, Ukraine in June.
2 minute read

Russia’s mass drone attacks are becoming increasingly successful. Hit rates have tripled during spring while Ukrainian defenses are overwhelmed by new swarm tactics and modified drones.

Russia’s intensified drone attacks against Ukraine are becoming increasingly successful, with drones hitting their targets in three times as many cases as before, according to official data from the Ukrainian air force.

Mass attacks with Shahed drones, originally of Iranian design but now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine’s severely strained air defenses. According to data from the Ukrainian air force, an average of about 15 percent of the drones penetrated defense lines between April and June – a sharp increase from 5 percent during the previous three months.

During the night leading to Monday, Russia conducted an extensive attack with 426 Shahed drones. On July 9, a record attack was seen with 728 drones and decoy drones, as well as several cruise missiles.

New tactics overwhelm defenses

Russia’s tactical innovations have included modifications that allow the drones to fly faster and at higher altitudes, beyond the range of the truck-mounted machine guns that Ukraine typically uses.

The problem is not that the Ukraine air defense is getting worse. Instead, what we see is that new swarming tactics and drones are now flying in higher altitude, which makes them more effective, says Yasir Atalan from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Russia has named its modified drones Geran, which means geranium in Russian. Geran-3, a turbine-powered variant that can fly up to 800 kilometers per hour, has been used against Kiev in recent weeks.

Ukraine develops countermeasures

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 10 that Ukraine is “already shooting down dozens of Shahed drones” with its domestically manufactured interceptor drones. Earlier in the month, he announced an agreement with the American company Swift Beat to co-produce hundreds of thousands of drones.

Our air defense forces are achieving good results with the new interceptor drones and they are performing particularly well, having shot down hundreds of Russian-Iranian Shaheds in a week, Zelenskyy said last week.

Andrew Turner, former air marshal in the Royal Air Force, describes the development as typical of air warfare:

It’s a constant duel and evolution between countermeasures against countermeasures against countermeasures. In Ukraine, this movement happens every 14 days, so it moves at great speed.

Hungary wants EU sanctions on Ukrainian forced conscription officers

The war in Ukraine

Published 16 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Hungarian Foreign Minister demands that those responsible must be held accountable for the murder and brutal assault of people who refused to go to war.
1 minute read

Following the Council of Europe report, the brutality surrounding forced recruitment patrols in Ukraine must be covered by EU human rights sanctions. This is the view of Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.

Referring to the Council of Europe report titled Memorandum on human rights elements for peace in Ukraine, dated July 8, 2025 and signed by the EU Commissioner for Human Rights, Michael O’Flaherty, Szijjártó points out that conscription in Ukraine involves murder, torture, brutal assault and brutal treatment.

— It is a fact that people are dying in Ukraine because of the brutality of the conscription officers, because they don’t want to go to war.

— Where are the NGOs, where are the Soros organizations, where are the so-called independent journalists, where are the human rights organizations, why do they not speak out and say that this manhunt on the streets of Ukraine is unacceptable? asks Péter Szijjártó.

Szijjártó emphasizes that they view it as unacceptable and “shocking” that European politicians remain indifferent to the brutality and stresses that they demand the responsible recruiters be placed on the EU’s human rights sanctions list.

— This is a bare minimum that the EU must do in this issue, he emphasizes.

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