The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, faced a significant setback in this weekend’s election, losing its majority in the lower house of parliament.
The poor result could force the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took office just four weeks ago.
For 70 years, the LDP has been the major force in Japanese politics, most recently ruling the country with coalition partner Komeito and holding its own majority in parliament. This has now been lost as it goes from 259 seats to just 191 (out of 465) and the LDP has its worst election since 2009.
There are several reasons why voters are abandoning the party in power, but analysts say it is partly due to the economic situation, with high inflation and the rising cost of living making it difficult for many Japanese people to cope with everyday life.
In addition, the party has been rocked by several major scandals – including the revelation that party officials embezzled large sums of money raised by sympathizers and supporters.
With 233 seats needed for a majority in parliament, protracted negotiations are expected – as even the main opposition party (CDPJ) failed to win more than 148 seats. Under the constitution, the parties now have one month to agree on who will form the new government.
“Unlikely to survive”
– Whether or not Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru resigns as LDP leader today, it seems unlikely that he will survive to lead a new government, writes Tobias Harris, founder of the political risk advisory firm Japan Foresight.
Ishiba was elected party chairman and prime minister as recently as October 1, when he called for new elections. Many critics and opponents now believe he must resign as a consequence of the election loss – something he has so far refused to do.
Instead, he wants a coalition government consisting of the LDP and several other parties, but analysts say it is not certain that he will find support for such a solution.
It is worth noting that the election results also led the currency (yen) to fall to its lowest level in three months in the country, which is considered the world’s fourth-largest economy.