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Polaris of Enlightenment

Intelligence chiefs: “International world order under threat”

The new cold war

Published 10 September 2024
– By Editorial Staff
William Burns (CIA) and Richard Moore (MI6).

The international world order is under “threat in a way we haven’t seen since the cold war”, the heads of Britain’s MI6 and the US CIA have claimed in a rare joint statement.

The statement, published in the Financial Times, highlights the war in Ukraine, alleged Russian sabotage campaigns in Europe and a growing“intelligence and geopolitical challenge” from China as key areas of concern.

This is the first time that the heads of the two intelligence services, Sir Richard Moore and William Burns, have issued a joint statement in a newspaper article. In the article, they warn that the international order – which they say is a “balanced system that has led to relative peace and stability and delivered rising living standards, opportunities and prosperity” – is now under serious threat.

“The international world order is under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War”, the two executives write in the Financial Times.

 

“Putin’s a bully”

The Ukraine war is seen as one of the biggest threats to the world order and part of a “wider pattern” of Russia trying to influence the situation in Europe through “cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation”.

In an interview during the FT Weekend Festival in London, the close cooperation between the US and British intelligence services was highlighted. Burns stressed the importance of Ukraine’s recent “military successes”, but warned that these victories do not necessarily mean that Putin’s grip on power in Russia is weakening.

While Mr Burns views Ukraine’s recent seizure of Russian territory in the Kursk region as a “significant tactical victory”, he sees no evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is weakening.

According to Burns, there was a “real risk” in 2022 that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in response to “its setbacks in the war”. But the CIA chief said the West should not be deterred by the threat of nuclear escalation.

– Putin’s a bully. He’s going to continue to sabre rattle from time to time, he argued, but stressed that such threats should not be allowed to have a deterrent effect on continued support for Ukraine.

Russian intelligence services “feral

Moore also described how Russian intelligence services have used alleged “criminal elements” to carry out sabotage operations in Europe, which he said is a sign of desperation.

– Russian intelligence services have gone a bit feral in some of their behaviour, he said, warning that even amateurish attempts can be dangerous.

China and the Middle East

Moore and Burns went on to say that in addition to the Ukraine war, China’s growing influence poses one of the biggest intelligence challenges of the century.

They described how their respective organizations have reorganized to better address this priority and how they are actively working to “counter Russia’s campaigns of sabotage and disinformation in Europe”, as well as pushing for de-escalation and a ceasefire in the Middle East.

– This is ultimately a question of political will, said Mr. Burns, who has been centrally involved in pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

In the interview, Moore and Burns were careful to point out how MI6 and the CIA had “warn the international community” about the “Russian invasion” by publishing intelligence information.

– There is no doubt that the international world order – the balanced system that has brought relative peace and stability and increased living standards, opportunity and prosperity – is under threat in a way that we have not seen since the Cold War, Sir Richard Moore and William Burns concluded the joint statement.

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German chancellor aims to build Europe’s largest army – may reinstate conscription

The new cold war

Published 15 May 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz (CDU).

The Christian Democrats’ new chancellor in Germany, former BlackRock executive Friedrich Merz, has set the tone for his government by declaring the goal of making the Bundeswehr Europe’s strongest army.

In his first speech to the Bundestag, he emphasized the need for increased military spending – and at the same time opened the door to reintroducing conscription in Germany.

When Merz recently took over as Germany’s chancellor, he quickly made it clear that the military is high on his political agenda, according to reports by Euroactiv, among others. In his first speech to the German Bundestag, Merz emphasized that Germany must “take greater responsibility” for Europe’s security and that the Bundeswehr, the German armed forces, should become the continent’s most powerful force.

Merz explained that the government is prepared to allocate more resources where he believes Germany can no longer rely on other countries’ military protection.

The federal government will provide all financial resources that the German Armed Forces need to become the strongest military in Europe in conventional terms, the new chancellor said in his speech.

Borrowed money to finance

To enable the increased defense spending, Merz’s government has decided to reform the so-called debt brake, a rule that previously limited the state’s ability to borrow money.

Easing these restrictions opens the door to significant investments in both equipment and personnel for the Bundeswehr.

Social Democrat Defense Minister Boris Pistorius welcomed the new investments but warned that the biggest bottleneck now is the shortage of soldiers. The Bundeswehr has struggled for several years to fill its ranks, and recruitment has not kept pace with ambitions.

If it is not possible to attract enough volunteers to the armed forces, the reintroduction of conscription may become a possibility – something that the Merz government is now investigating in more detail.

However, the defense spending plans have met with some resistance from critics who argue that increased military spending risks crowding out other important areas of society, such as healthcare, education, and social security. Others warn that rearmament could lead to increased tensions in Europe and that Germany should prioritize diplomacy and cooperation over military spending.

Merz and his government, however, argue that a strong defense force is essential to safeguarding both the country’s security and its independence.

Macron opens the door to deploying French nuclear weapons in other EU countries

The new cold war

Published 14 May 2025
– By Editorial Staff
After the UK's "Brexit", Emmanuel Macron's France is now the only nuclear power in the EU.

France is prepared to begin discussions with other European countries about deploying French fighter jets armed with nuclear weapons on their territory – similar to what the US already does in certain countries. This was confirmed by President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday.

– The Americans have the bombs on planes in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Macron said in an interview with TF1. The US is believed to have around 50 nuclear weapons stored at the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey.

– We are ready to open this discussion. I will define the framework in a very specific way in the weeks and months to come.

Macron also mentioned three conditions for such a step: that France will not pay for the security of other countries, that it will not be at the expense of the country’s own needs, and that the final decision will always rest with the President of the French Republic in his capacity as commander-in-chief.

France is the EU’s only nuclear power, and since the war in Ukraine broke out, there has been growing debate about extending the French nuclear umbrella to include the Union’s partners.

Poland, which like France is a key ally of Ukraine and a growing force within the EU, has already expressed a desire to be covered by the French deterrent.

– There has always been a European dimension in the consideration of what we call vital interests. We do not elaborate on this because ambiguity goes hand in hand with the deterrent, said Macron.

Concerns about nuclear war

Plans to deploy French nuclear weapons in other European countries have raised concerns among experts and security analysts. Critics argue that such a move risks further inflaming tensions between NATO and Russia and could be perceived as a strategic escalation rather than defensive protection.

In the long run, there are fears that it could contribute to increased militarization and raise the risk of misunderstandings or misjudgments that could, in the worst case, lead to a large-scale nuclear conflict in Europe with devastating consequences something that several analysts have warned about since the war in Ukraine broke out.

Others are more positive and argue that European countries must face the harsh reality that the major powers already have extensive nuclear arsenals that they have no plans to give up, and that deterrence with their own nuclear weapons is not only necessary but also the most effective way to prevent future attacks.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, France currently has just under 300 nuclear weapons, compared to Russia’s approximately 5,900 and the US’s 5,300. However, it is emphasized that these are qualified estimates and that there is rarely any public data on countries’ nuclear arsenals.

Lithuanian ex-president: “No need to fear Russia’s nuclear weapons”

The new cold war

Published 14 May 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Dalia Grybauskaité was one of the voices calling for NATO to attack Russia as early as 2022.

Lithuania’s former president Dalia Grybauskaité rejects Vladimir Putin’s proposal for peace talks with Ukraine as disingenuous, claiming that it is merely a tactical maneuver aimed at buying time.

Despite widespread concerns that the war will escalate into a large-scale European nuclear conflict, Grybauskaité argues that the threat of weapons of mass destruction is greatly exaggerated and asserts that “there is no reason to fear nuclear weapons”.

– I believe these are games for the time being, an attempt to stall for time, an attempt to shift the blame to the Ukrainian side, but in fact they are stalling for time and are unwilling to end the war now, at least in the near future as they want to occupy as much of Ukraine as possible, the former president said in a press statement on Monday.

Her statement came after four European leaders visited Kiev over the weekend and appealed for a temporary ceasefire as a basis for peace talks. Putin responded with a counterproposal for direct negotiations in Istanbul – an initiative that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown some openness to, but only after a ceasefire is in place.

Most notable, however, was how Grybauskaité downplayed the risk of nuclear weapons being used in the conflict – describing Russian nuclear deterrence as “an obsolete doctrine” and claiming that weapons of mass destruction should no longer be considered a relevant threat in modern warfare.

– Nuclear deterrence was effective after World War Two, during the Cold War, but not now. No umbrella will help because now we have completely different weapons, a completely different nature of war. Nuclear weapons will not scare anybody.

“An obsolete instrument”

As recently as November, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine and opened the door to using tactical nuclear weapons in response to large-scale conventional military attacks a move that has led to increased concern in several European capitals.

Despite this, Grybauskaité tried to downplay fears of nuclear weapons as completely unfounded – and instead turned the threat back on Moscow:

– There is no need to fear and there is no need to pay attention as it is an obsolete instrument and there is nothing to fear. The Russians may be afraid of nuclear weapons themselves, so let them be afraid.

It should be noted that Dalia Grybauskaité has long been one of the most vocal advocates in Europe for a more confrontational line toward Russia. Throughout the war in Ukraine, she has repeatedly criticized the West’s stance in the conflict and called for more direct military involvement from NATO including attacks on Russian targets. According to Grybauskaité, the only way to stop Putin is to meet him with military force, not diplomacy.

War can only be stopped by a war”, she has declared, arguing that “if we do not stop Putin in Ukraine, we will still have to fight a war, but in our countries”.

NATO expands military presence in Europe

The new cold war

Published 13 May 2025
– By Editorial Staff
NATO led exercise in Sweden, 2024 (archive image).

The US military alliance NATO is currently building a number of new bases and strengthening its military presence along Europe’s eastern flank – from the Baltic to the Black Sea. In Romania, an entire military city is emerging with space for tens of thousands of soldiers and their families. In response to NATO’s expansion, Russia is also further expanding its military infrastructure along its western border.

While the expansion of military bases continues, the number of so-called multinational combat groups continues to increase, as do demands for higher defense spending among NATO member states. Some describe this development as a new iron curtain – this time in the form of military infrastructure.

One of the most extensive projects is taking place in Cincu in central Romania, where a whole new military community is now emerging. According to information from the state channel SVT, NATO is building a base there with space for up to 10,000 soldiers and their families.

The area includes new runways, roads, schools, housing, and shops – with the aim of supporting a long-term presence in the region. The construction, which began shortly after the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022, is part of a larger pattern in which NATO has gradually strengthened its presence in the east.

Mark Rutte: “There are no alternatives”

Critics, however, argue that the rapid militarization in Europe risks exacerbating an already tense situation. Instead of diplomatic solutions and détente, Western countries are choosing to respond with more soldiers, more weapons, and more bases.

At the same time, NATO’s incoming Secretary General Mark Rutte has proposed that member states should spend up to 5 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. This should include not only increased spending on weapons and troops, but also extensive investments in new infrastructure, digital security, and logistics.

There are no alternatives. We must prepare ourselves for a more unpredictable security situation, Rutte said recently in a statement.

Mark Rutte Nato
Mark Rutte, right, wants NATO member countries to significantly increase their defense spending. Photo: NATO/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Russia reinforces

Across the border, Russia is reportedly increasing its military activity near Finland, where Russian bases in Kamenka and Petrozavodsk, among other places, are reportedly being upgraded. The Kremlin has also responded with its own military exercises and a stronger presence in areas close to NATO countries.

Both East and West thus appear to be in a period of significantly increased military build-up. Official sources describe this as defensive measures, but critical voices warn that this is rather a mutual arms race, with Europe as the main arena.

Representatives of peace organizations argue that military walls have never been a recipe for stability and long-term peace. Instead, they believe that diplomacy and security guarantees should be the focus – not permanent troop deployments and military cities.

FACT: NATO bases in Eastern Europe

  • Battle groups since 2017 - NATO has had four permanent multinational battle groups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland since 2017.
  • Expansion after 2022 - Following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, four additional teams have been established in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
  • Cincu base in Romania - One of the largest new facilities is being built in Cincu, accommodating 10,000 soldiers and dependants. The area will have housing, schools, shops and airstrips.
  • Rotating forces - Troops from countries including France, Belgium and the Netherlands will regularly rotate through the bases, with support from the US.
  • NATO member states are expected to increase their defense spending in the future, according to a proposal by incoming Secretary-General Mark Rutte, to a total of 5% of GDP (3.5% for military defense and 1.5% for related infrastructure and cybersecurity). However, this is not yet decided.

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