Thursday, August 28, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

Analyst: Israel’s Pahlavi project is a historical fantasy

The escalation in the Middle East

Published 25 June 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Views on Reza Pahlavi are divided. Some see him as Iran's rightful leader - and others as an easily controlled and weak-willed puppet.
5 minute read

Israel’s campaign against Iran is characterized by unrealistic hopes for regime change, in which the son of the deposed Shah, Reza Pahlavi, could emerge as a pro-Israeli puppet leader for a new Iran.

This is the view of Elfadil Ibrahim, a geopolitical writer and analyst, who warns that the strategy risks creating the same chaos as previous foreign interventions in the region.

In an article for the think tank Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Ibrahim describes how the Middle East is a region where history rarely repeats itself exactly, but where it often “rhymes in ways that are both tragic and absurd”. According to him, this is particularly evident in Israel’s current strategy toward Iran.

The campaign, which on the surface is about knocking out Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, actually has more far-reaching ambitions: to overthrow the Islamic Republic and replace it with a friendly regime under Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last shah.

“This is not a policy officially declared in Jerusalem or Washington, but it lingers in the background of Israel’s actions and its overt calls for Iranians to ‘stand up’ to the Islamic Republic”, the writer notes.

Israel wants to get rid of the mullahs for good—and wants to see a pro-Israel government in their place. Photo: Khamenei.ir

He highlights Reza Pahlavi’s visit to Israel in April 2023 as an important symbolic act. During the visit, Pahlavi prayed at the Western Wall but refrained from visiting the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount and made no attempt to meet with Palestinian leaders. An analysis by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs described the visit as a message that Israel considers Pahlavi “the main leader of the Iranian opposition”.

CIA overthrew secular leader

Israeli officials have also openly expressed a desire for regime change. Ibrahim quotes former intelligence minister Gila Gamliel as saying that “window of opportunity has opened to overthrow the regime”.

According to Ibrahim, what could have been dismissed as diplomatic gamesmanship has instead developed into “a strategic bet” in which military pressure is hoped to create conditions for a political shift entirely to Israel’s liking.

“The irony is hard to overstate. It was foreign intervention that set the stage for the current enmity”, he states bluntly.

The writer is referring to the 1953 coup in which the CIA and MI6 overthrew the democratically elected Mohammad Mossadegh and reinstated the Shah  an intervention that paved the way for totalitarian rule, growing anti-imperialism, and the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

The Shah was reinstated when Prime Minister Mossadegh was overthrown in a coup orchestrated by the CIA and MI6. Photo: Pahlavi.org, fararu

“The coup reinstalled the Shah, whose autocratic rule and dependence on the West bred a potent mix of anti-imperialist sentiment and religious fervor”, he explains, continuing:

“The 1979 Islamic Revolution, in its own way, was a delayed reaction to 1953, a radical assertion of national sovereignty over foreign interests. Now, Israel and the US seem to believe that a new foreign-backed intervention could be the solution to a problem the last one helped create”.

Israel’s preferred leader

In his analysis, Ibrahim points out that Israel’s air strikes since June 12 have targeted more than just nuclear facilities. Among the targets are government institutions, the headquarters of state television, and the notorious Evin prison, where political prisoners are held.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described the conflict as a path to liberation for the Iranian people. “As we achieve our objective”, Netanyahu said in a video message addressed to the Iranians, “we are also clearing the path for you to achieve your freedom”.

The name of the operation, Operation Rising Lion, is also, according to Ibrahim, a clear reference to Iran’s pre-revolutionary flag and the legacy of the monarchy.

Donald Trump Benjamin Netanyahu
Several analysts believe that a weak, easily manipulated leader such as Pahlavi would have benefited both Israel and the US. Photo: Benjamin Netanyahu/FB

However, the geopolitical analyst emphasizes that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding what a regime change in Iran would actually entail in practice. He points out that Israel’s public support for Pahlavi contrasts with official statements that the Iranian people themselves should choose their leaders.

“Reza Pahlavi has spent decades cultivating an image as a democratic statesman-in-waiting. In interviews, he speaks of a future decided by a popular referendum, backed by detailed proposals like a 100-day transition plan. To Israel’s delight, his alignment extends beyond symbolism to the core of Israeli strategic thinking”.

During his visit to Israel, he dismissed the nuclear agreement negotiations as a “waste of time” and claimed that “the quickest way to eliminate all threats” is to invest in an alternative to the Iranian regime.

Many remember the Shah’s torture chambers

But Ibrahim warns that Pahlavi’s vision – including ideas about “Cyrus agreements” and a reborn friendship between the Persian and Jewish peoples – is unrealistic in today’s Iran.

He points out that for many, the name Pahlavi is still associated with the security service “SAVAK torture chambers, lavish corruption, and dependence on foreign powers for viability” and emphasizes that even though there is widespread dissatisfaction with the mullahs’ rule, many still remember the Shah with deep hatred and contempt.

“Death to the oppressor, be it the Shah or the Leader”, was one of many similar slogans chanted during opposition protests in Tehran in 2022.

“The monarchy Israel hints at reviving was not merely overthrown in 1979, it was actively rejected by a powerful coalition of Islamists, leftists, and nationalists united against the Shah’s repression. This legacy of popular rejection severely curbs Reza Pahlavi’s appeal today”, the writer continues, assessing that Pahlavi is in fact perceived by many Iranians as “opportunistic” and “disconnected from the Iranian people”.

Elfadil Ibrahim is a writer and analyst with a particular focus on Sudan. His work has been published in The Guardian, Al Jazeera, The New Arab, and several other media outlets. Photo: Private

Iran’s future must be decided by Iranians

He further argues that it is extremely dangerous for Israel to try to force or hasten a “popular” uprising through assassinations and bombings, pointing out that even within the opposition there are many who do not want to see a new Iranian regime forced upon them by a foreign power rather than by the Iranian people themselves.

“In addition, the fantasy that a successor regime in Tehran would be inherently friendly to Israel ignores deep-seated suspicion embedded through decades of conflict, propaganda, and animosity now being cemented by overt foreign intervention. Even Reza Pahlavi, if somehow installed, would likely face immense pressure to distance himself from any perception of being ‘Israel’s man in Iran'”, Ibrahim continues.

The analyst believes that Israel certainly has the capacity to weaken the Islamic Republic significantly, but that it will never be able to conjure up a new, pro-Israeli Iran from the ashes, least of all by promoting a “successor from a fallen dynasty that Iranians have long since rejected”.

“In the end, the future of Iran should be decided not in Jerusalem or Washington, but by Iranians themselves – on their own terms, in their own time”, he concludes.

The fall of the Shah and the Islamic Revolution

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, known as the Shah of Iran, took power in 1941 after his father was forced to abdicate under British and Soviet pressure. His rule was characterized by rapid modernization, but also by brutal political repression, systematic persecution of dissenters, growing social and economic inequalities, and a strong dependence on Western powers, especially the United States and the United Kingdom.

In 1951, Mohammad Mossadeq was elected prime minister and quickly became popular for his policy of nationalizing the country's oil industry, which was then controlled by the British. This led to a crisis that culminated in a coup in 1953, orchestrated by the CIA and MI6, in which Mossadeq was overthrown and the Shah's power strengthened. The coup created widespread hatred of foreign interference and undermined popular faith in the monarchy.

The Shah's authoritarian rule was characterized by oppression and harsh repression through the corruption of the security services (SAVAK) and widening social divisions. Dissatisfaction grew during the 1970s, uniting various opposition forces - Islamists, leftist activists and nationalists - in opposition to the Shah's regime.

In 1979, the Shah was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution, which at the time was seen by many Iranians as a way to regain national independence and end both the Shah's oppression and Western influence. After the revolution, however, the new clerical leadership quickly purged former allies of the opposition, including leftist activists, nationalists and secular groups. Through persecution, arrests and executions, the ayatollahs consolidated their power and established a one-party theocratic state, which many observers say has become even more brutal than the Shah's rule.

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Swedish crisis preparedness brochure gains unexpected traction among worried Iranians

The escalation in the Middle East

Published today 10:26
– By Editorial Staff
MSB's brochure is available in a range of languages beyond Swedish – including Persian, Arabic, and Somali.
2 minute read

The Swedish information brochure “If Crisis or War Comes”, produced by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) in connection with the war in Ukraine in 2022, has gained unexpected distribution in Iran.

The Persian-language web magazine Stockholmian reports that the brochure’s Persian translation is now circulating widely on social media in the country.

The brochure, which was distributed to all Swedish households, contains various practical advice on crisis preparedness, such as storing food and water, following reliable news sources and seeking shelter during crises or conflicts.

Since Sweden has had extensive mass immigration in recent decades, the brochure was also translated into several languages – including Persian. And now the Persian version of the MSB brochure is reportedly gaining unexpectedly wide distribution even among the population back home in Iran.

“What’s interesting is that the Persian version of the brochure is now circulating widely on social media in Iran. Many Iranians, who are worried about the political and security developments in the region, have started spreading and reading this Swedish crisis guide as a concrete and useful tool”, writes the web magazine.

“The Swedish state has thought more about us than our own government”, claims one user, highlighting the brochure as an example of how a state should act to take responsibility for its citizens.

“A source of inspiration”

Despite the advice in the brochure being adapted for Swedish conditions, many of them are perceived as universal and relevant even in other countries in other parts of the world.

“In a time where uncertainty and threats of war have characterized many people’s everyday lives, Sweden’s model for information and preparedness can become a source of inspiration – even for countries like Iran”, Stockholmian concludes.

Although MSB’s brochure has been praised in many quarters, it has also been questioned and met with harsh criticism – not least for its explicit “doomsday rhetoric” where Swedes are urged to prepare themselves for upcoming terrorist attacks, aerial bombings and nuclear war.

In a country like Iran where bombs and war were actually bitter reality quite recently and are still a very concrete threat, however, the alarmist rhetoric is not perceived as equally remarkable.

Analyst: Israel preparing new war against Iran

The escalation in the Middle East

Published 21 August 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The question is whether Donald Trump will keep the United States out of a new Israeli war against Iran.
4 minute read

Swedish-Iranian Middle East expert Trita Parsi assesses that Israel will likely initiate a new war against Iran before December – perhaps as early as the end of August. The next conflict will likely be significantly bloodier than the previous one, he warns.

Israel is determined not to give Iran time to rebuild its military capacity after the June war, according to Trita Parsi, well-known Iran expert and author. In a new analysis, he warns that an attack could come within the next few months.

“Israel is likely to launch another war with Iran before December – perhaps even as early as late August”, writes Parsi.

Iran is already preparing for the attack. According to the analyst, the country played a long-term game during the first war and measured its missile attacks while waiting for a prolonged conflict. Next time, Iran is expected to strike hard from the beginning.

Large-scale war

Parsi assesses that the coming conflict will be significantly more devastating than the June war. If US President Donald Trump again gives in to Israeli pressure and joins the fight, the US could face an extensive war with Iran.

“United States could face a full-blown war with Iran that will make Iraq look easy by comparison”, warns the Iran expert.

According to his analysis, Israel’s June war was never solely about Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The goal was rather to shift the balance of power in the Middle East, where Iranian nuclear capabilities were indeed an important but not decisive factor.

Failed with main objectives

Israel had three main objectives with its attacks in June, according to Parsi: to draw the US into direct military conflict with Iran, to overthrow the Iranian regime, and to transform the country into the next Syria or Lebanon – countries that Israel can bomb without American support.

He notes that only one of these objectives was achieved. Despite early intelligence successes – such as killing 30 high commanders and 19 nuclear scientists – Israel only managed to temporarily disrupt Iran’s command structure.

“Within 18 hours, Iran had replaced most if not all of these commanders and launched a heavy missile barrage, demonstrating its ability to absorb significant losses and still mount a fierce counterattack”, writes Parsi.

Threatened to kill generals’ families

According to the Washington Post, Mossad agents, speaking fluent Persian, called high Iranian officials on their mobile phones and threatened to kill them and their families if they did not record videos condemning the regime and defecting publicly. More than 20 such calls were made during the war’s first hours.

“Yet there’s no evidence a single Iranian general capitulated to the threats, and the regime’s cohesion remained intact”, notes the Iran expert.

Contrary to Israel’s expectations, the attacks did not lead to mass protests or uprisings against the Islamic Republic. Instead, Iranians of all political colors rallied behind the flag, though not necessarily behind the regime itself.

Parsi quotes an artist in Tehran, Iran who told researcher Narges Bajoghli at Johns Hopkins University:

“I used to be one of those who would chant during protests to not send Iranian money to Lebanon or Palestine. But now I understand that the bombs we all face are one and if we don’t have strong defenses across the region, the war comes to us”.

Israel signals new offensive

Both Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and military chief Eyal Zamir have signaled that a new offensive is likely. The June war was just the first phase, according to Zamir, who added that Israel is now “entering a new chapter” of the conflict.

The Middle East analyst explains that Israel is determined not to give Iran time to replenish its missile arsenal, restore air defenses, or install improved systems. This is central to Israel’s “mowing the grass” strategy: to strike preemptively and repeatedly to prevent opponents from developing capabilities that could challenge Israeli military dominance.

To deter further attacks, Iran is expected to strike hard and fast from the beginning of the next war. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned on X:

“If aggression is repeated, we will not hesitate to react in a more decisive manner and in a way that will be IMPOSSIBLE to cover up”.

The Iran expert assesses that the cost for Israel must become overwhelming, otherwise the country will gradually erode Iran’s missile capacity and leave the country defenseless.

Trump’s role becomes decisive

Trump’s response to a second Israeli war with Iran could be decisive, according to Parsi. The president seems unwilling to engage in a prolonged conflict – the 12-day war exposed critical shortages in US missile stockpiles.

“By green-lighting the opening salvo, Trump has walked into Israel’s trap – and it’s unclear whether he can find a way out”.

Limited involvement is probably no longer an option. Trump will either need to go all in on the war or stay out completely. And staying out requires more than a one-time refusal – it requires sustained resistance to Israeli pressure, something he has so far not shown either the will or strength to manage, concludes Trita Parsi in his analysis.

Trita Parsi is an Iranian-Swedish author and one of the most prominent experts on Iran and Middle Eastern politics. He is executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington-based think tank that advocates for diplomatic solutions and generally opposes military interventions. He previously founded the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).

Parsi holds a doctorate in international relations and has written several acclaimed books about the relationship between the US, Israel and Iran. His analyses are regularly published in leading newspapers such as the New York Times and Foreign Affairs, and he is frequently consulted as an expert by international media outlets including CNN, BBC and Al Jazeera.

Parsi's focus on dialogue and diplomacy has also led to harsh criticism from pro-Israeli groups and parts of the shah-friendly Iranian opposition, who believe that Parsi is too soft on Tehran and have accused him of being a regime-friendly lobbyist.

Israel launches new attack on Syria

The escalation in the Middle East

Published 17 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Israel bombs Syrian military government buildings to support the Druze minority in the country, officials explain.
1 minute read

Less than a week after the attack on neighboring Lebanon, Israel is now also launching a new attack on neighboring Syria, according to Times of Israel among many other media outlets. During the afternoon, they bombed the government’s military headquarters in the capital Damascus, and there are also reports that bombs struck near the presidential palace.

According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, several people are reported to have died and been injured in the attacks.

The Israeli military justifies the attacks by claiming they are supporting the Druze religious minority in Syria, which in recent days has been engaged in armed conflict with state forces in southern Syria.

Islamist rule

Syria is currently ruled by Salafists from the group HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), a breakaway faction from the terrorist movement Al-Qaeda. They were also officially designated as such by the US, which nonetheless worked for many years to help them overthrow the secular socialist president Bashar Al-Assad, who fell around Christmas last year after more than 13 years of civil war.

Both Israel and the US initially positioned themselves as officially positive toward the change of power in Syria.

Read more about the Salafists who rule Syria

Nya Dagbladet (Swedish news outlet) has previously highlighted the new Syrian government in an analysis article that you can read here.

Israel’s latest attack: Ground troops in Lebanon

The escalation in the Middle East

Published 10 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
2 minute read

Israel has conducted almost daily attacks against targets in southern Lebanon and also against the capital Beirut since the ceasefire was concluded in November 2024 between Israel and Hezbollah. During the night, they have also deployed ground troops in the neighboring country.

As recently as Tuesday, Israel fired on a vehicle in the Lebanese city of Tripoli in an attack that killed three people and injured 13 according to Lebanon’s health ministry. According to Israel, a Hamas officer was killed in the attack.

During last night, Israel also deployed ground troops in the neighboring country in what is described as a “special operation”. The Israeli military IDF communicates this in a press release and a statement on Telegram as reported by, among others, the Qatari channel Al-Jazeera. They also show a video of soldiers in the operation.

 

 

Despite the agreed ceasefire, Israel has justified continued attacks in Lebanon by claiming that the paramilitary Shia Muslim political party Hezbollah, which is part of the country’s complex coalition government together with Christian, Druze and socialist politicians, continues to pose a threat and that the Lebanese state has not fulfilled its commitments under the agreement.

Lebanon has for its part condemned the attacks as flagrant violations of the ceasefire and has also requested help from the UN Security Council to get Israel to cease the attacks. Lebanese President Nawaf Salam has repeatedly also addressed the US and Israel directly to get the Netanyahu government to refrain from further attacks.

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