Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

Sweden: Organized crime drains welfare coffers

organized crime

Published August 23, 2024
– By Editorial Staff
For example, social crime is a growing threat to health care.

Every year, billions of Swedish kronor leak from the welfare system to organized crime, raising concerns that taxpayer money is also funding gang violence.

Criminologist Alberto Chrysoulakis and Carina Gunnarson, associate professor of political science, warn that organized crime poses a serious threat to our welfare systems.

Alberto Chrysoulakis, PhD in criminology and lecturer at Malmö University, notes that Swedish institutions are vulnerable to infiltration and corruption, often linked to criminal gangs.

– Although not everything has to be linked to criminal networks, one can expect that some of it is, Chrysoulakis said in an interview with forskning.se.

The Swedish Financial Management Authority (Ekonomistyrningsverket) estimates that the losses from incorrect payments will be between 13 and 16 billion SEK (€1.1 billion - €1.4 billion) in 2021. Carina Gunnarson, an associate professor of political science at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, points out that welfare crimes can include manipulation of time schedules, incorrect subsidies and various forms of corruption.

– The welfare sector is an area where we know that a lot of money goes missing, says Gunnarson.

Gunnarson emphasizes that changes in welfare systems and the introduction of the Law on Freedom of Choice (LOV) have increased vulnerability by creating space for both legitimate and rogue actors. She argues that such reforms can often lead to corruption.

– Reforms are generally a risk factor for corruption, and here we have a reform without sufficient development of the control systems, she points out.

Welfare crime is an escalating social problem. Photo: Riksbank/houstondwiPhotos/CC BY-SA 2.0

Project Omega

In the ongoing Forte-funded research project Project Omega, Chrysoulakis is investigating the link between wealth crime and other crimes. By analyzing data from encrypted chats and convictions, he hopes to gain a deeper understanding of how criminal networks operate and how welfare crime can contribute to their income.

– This will provide a unique insight into the flow of information within criminal networks, says Chrysoulakis.

Both Chrysoulakis and Gunnarson warn that welfare crime can undermine trust in the state and democracy if nothing is done. Gunnarson emphasizes the importance of cooperation between authorities and being proactive before problems escalate.

– We need to have resources and the right working methods, and cooperation between different authorities. The lesson is to act in time, before it goes too far.

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Youth prisons for 13-year-olds to open this summer in Sweden

organized crime

Published today 2:03 pm
– By Editorial Staff
The number of young people convicted of serious crimes has increased dramatically in recent years.

The Swedish government has tasked the Swedish Prison and Probation Service (Kriminalvården) with preparing special youth prisons for 13- and 14-year-olds who commit serious crimes.

The purpose is to adapt the sentence execution to the child's age and to separate younger offenders from older youth, with the prison units set to be ready by summer.

The Swedish Prison and Probation Service has previously been tasked with preparing youth prisons for 15–17-year-olds convicted of serious crimes. Now the assignment is being expanded to also include criminals aged 13 and 14, in connection with the government's proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility for serious crimes.

In August 2023, the government received the report A review of regulations on custodial sentences for young people, which proposes that secure youth care be replaced with imprisonment in special youth units at existing facilities.

– Lowering the age of criminal responsibility for the most serious crimes is needed for several reasons. It is important to strengthen redress for crime victims, to protect society and to help children leave the criminal path. This also provides a five-year window for preventive work to catch up with today's reality. The Prison and Probation Service is now tasked with preparing operations in the best way to receive the youngest target group, says Swedish Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer.

Age-appropriate adaptation

The Prison and Probation Service must adapt both facilities and operations based on the children's age. Younger children must be kept separate from older youth, and operations must comply with the provisions of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.

– When 13–14-year-olds are running around with automatic weapons, it must be met with society's full force. To protect others, they must be able to be locked up, and by lowering the age of criminal responsibility, we open up the police's toolbox. It gives us a chance to both stop continued violence and turn around the development for these children before it's too late, says Henrik Vinge (Sweden Democrats), chair of the justice committee in the Swedish Parliament.

Torsten Elofsson, legal policy spokesperson for the Christian Democrats, points out that the need is urgent:

– The number of children, as young as 13–14 years old, committing serious violent crimes has increased dramatically. Measures to prevent this and to also take action after completed crimes are a must. At the same time, the execution needs to be adapted based on the perpetrator's age. It is welcome that the Prison and Probation Service is now tasked with examining how operations need to be adapted.

Martin Melin (Liberals) agrees:

– I have great confidence in the Prison and Probation Service and how they solve the strained situation they have, not least with the shortage of places. I am convinced that they will also be able to ensure that the 13 and 14-year-olds sentenced to prison will be taken care of in the best way.

Planned facilities and timeline

The Prison and Probation Service is planning special youth units for boys at the facilities in Högsbo, Rosersberg, Österåker, Kumla, Skenäs and Täby. For girls, units are planned at Ystad and Sagsjön. Implementation will occur in stages, and not all units will be operational from July 1, 2026.

On September 24, the Ministry of Justice sent out for consultation a draft legislative proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 13 years for crimes with a minimum sentence of four years' imprisonment or more, as well as for attempts, preparation and conspiracy to commit such crimes. The proposal is currently time-limited to five years.

Sharp increase in children suspected of murder plots in Sweden

organized crime

Published October 20, 2025
– By Editorial Staff
In 2022, 14 children under the age of 15 were suspected of involvement in murder plots. This year, that number has risen to 127.

The number of minors suspected of planning murders has skyrocketed in a short time, according to new figures from the Swedish Prosecution Authority. More than 120 children under 15 are currently under investigation for planning deadly violence.

At the same time, the Swedish government reports that the fight against gang crime shows some progress – but the development raises concerns.

The government's initiative against gangs has been a central part of the Tidö Agreement between the governing parties and the Sweden Democrats. Three years after the cooperation began, several sentences have been toughened, the justice system has received increased resources, and police have gained access to new tools.

Despite this, it remains unclear whether organized crime is actually decreasing. However, one clearly positive trend is that the number of shootings has decreased sharply in recent years.

According to police statistics, 314 shootings occurred through September 2022. During the same period this year, the number has dropped to 113. The number of fatal shootings has decreased from 49 to 26 during the corresponding period – excluding the ten people killed in the attack at Risbergska School in Örebro, central Sweden.

Police assess that more violent crimes are being stopped in time thanks to expanded possibilities for secret surveillance and other intelligence methods. More murder investigations are also being solved, according to the authority.

Bombings and arson increase

At the same time, the trend points in the opposite direction regarding bombings and arson attacks. These have increased but rarely lead to fatalities. Recently, many of the bombings have been carried out with powerful pyrotechnics instead of military explosives.

Police also see successes on the international front. So far this year, 183 gang-connected individuals have been arrested abroad – a record figure – of which 35 are classified as so-called priority actors. Despite this, the total circle of gang criminals is not assessed to be decreasing.

According to police's latest situation report from autumn 2024, around 14,000 people are actively involved in the gang environment and an additional 48,000 have connections to it. When the next report is presented in November, the numbers are expected to rise.

Directing crime from abroad

Police also estimate that approximately 700 gang criminals now operate from abroad – an increase of 100 people since previous calculations.

The most concerning trend, however, involves children and young people. In 2022, 14 children under 15 were suspected of involvement in murder plots. This year, the figure has risen to 127, according to new data from the Swedish Prosecution Authority.

The suspicions mainly concern attempted murder, preparation, conspiracy and aiding and abetting murder, but also nine completed murders and a couple of cases of incitement.

Sprängdåd Uppsala september 2023
Bombings are increasing alarmingly in Sweden (archive image Uppsala, Sep. 2023). Photo: Facsimile/Aftonbladet Play/YT

Children recruiting children

According to the Swedish Ministry of Justice, children are often recruited via social media, where gang criminals post orders for violent acts. A growing trend is also that children themselves recruit other children. Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer (Moderate Party) believes that crime has not worsened, but that it has changed character.

Criminologist Manne Gerell assesses that the development is largely moving in the right direction: – The best indicator for me is how many people die or are seriously injured, and there we have seen a massive decrease in shootings.

Gerell believes the decrease is mainly due to increased resources for police rather than individual reforms in the Tidö Agreement: – Everything else is small puzzle pieces that individually could hardly have played any role, he says.

Among the measures that have had the least effect, he mentions the visitation zones, which have been used less than expected and have not produced any clear results.

Police simultaneously warn that the level of violence within gangs remains high and that new spirals of violence may arise: – One concern is that hundreds of children and young people who were taken for involvement in these crimes a few years ago will, to a large extent, be back on the streets soon if they aren't already, says Manne Gerell.

The Tidö Agreement and the fight against gang violence – what's coming in 2025/26

  • Legislative proposal on expanded criminal liability for attempted, preparatory, and conspiracy to commit crimes
  • Legislative proposal on new indeterminate prison sentence, security sentence
  • Legislative proposal allowing police to use AI for real-time facial recognition with cameras
  • Legislative proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 13 years for serious crimes
  • Legislative proposal to completely abolish sentence reductions for young people between 18 and 21 years
  • Legislative proposal on reduced sentence reductions for young people aged 15–17 years
  • Stricter rules for conditional release enter into force on January 1
  • Investigation proposal on allowing police to use entrapment
  • Legislative proposal on being able to deport foreign nationals with gang connections
  • Investigation proposal on reversed burden of proof in asset forfeiture cases
  • Investigation on new possibilities for police to intervene in the cyber environment


Examples of legislative proposals from the criminal law review

  • multiple offenses to be assessed more severely
  • sentencing scales for approximately fifty crimes to be tightened
  • less consideration given to mitigating circumstances
  • up to double sentences for crimes linked to gang criminality

Source: Ministry of Justice (Sweden)

Nearly 200 bombings in Sweden this year – despite record-high customs seizures

organized crime

Published October 20, 2025
– By Editorial Staff
In many cases, the attacks are carried out with hand grenades or illegal fireworks that are smuggled into the country from the Balkans or Eastern Europe.

Sweden has been hit by nearly 200 bombings during 2025. Meanwhile, customs authorities have seized over 42,000 explosive items during the first six months of the year – almost double compared to the entire previous year.

Police now see a clear shift where stolen goods from construction sites have been replaced by smuggled war materiel and illegal fireworks from the Balkans and Eastern Europe.

The bombings continue to shake Sweden. So far this year, the country has been hit by nearly 200 completed or failed bombing attacks, according to information obtained by Stampen-owned Göteborgs-Posten.

But the patterns are changing. Where it was previously most common for criminals to use explosives stolen from construction sites, police now see a new and alarming trend.

— During the summer and autumn, we have primarily seen detonations with hand grenades and with homemade explosive devices, says Malin Nygren, head of the Swedish police's national bomb data center.

Smuggling increases dramatically

Behind the change lies a sharp increase in smuggling. In many cases, it involves hand grenades or illegal fireworks being brought into the country from the Balkans or Eastern Europe.

The numbers speak for themselves: During the first half of 2025, customs seized over 42,000 explosive items. This is a record figure that almost doubles the just over 24,000 seizures made during all of 2024.

Martin Norell, expert at the Swedish Customs Service (Tullverket), shares the police's concern about the development.

— I don't feel that the situation is very bright in Sweden right now, he says.

Children manipulated to carry out the attacks

Behind the grim statistics lies a particularly dark reality: It is often children who are manipulated by criminal networks to carry out the bombing and arson attacks. The young perpetrators have in several cases been seriously injured when handling explosives and flammable liquids, and at least one death has occurred.

Many of the bombings have been carried out with smuggled hand grenades used for both revenge and extortion, and on several occasions unexploded hand grenades have been found in residential areas – or at or near preschools.

Dan Windt, operational coordinator at the Swedish police's national operations center, urges parents to be vigilant.

— Parents and other important adults need to continue being present in children's lives both physically and digitally. Ask many questions and ask for help. Contact the social services in your municipality if the child is contacted by criminals, or call the police at an early stage if you suspect that your child is about to commit a crime, so we can prevent it together.

More minors in Sweden are facing trial for serious offenses

organized crime

Published October 14, 2025
– By Editorial Staff
A conviction ruling means that a court determines guilt, but since children under 15 are not criminally responsible in Sweden, no sentence is imposed.

The number of children under 15 who are brought to trial in so-called evidentiary proceedings has increased sharply over the past year. A large proportion of the cases involve murder and attempted murder.

Up to and including September this year, 68 children under 15 have been brought to trial in evidentiary proceedings. This is nearly double compared to the entire previous year, when 38 children were processed in this type of case. The year before that, in 2023, the number was only seven cases, according to the Swedish Prosecution Authority (Åklagarmyndigheten).

Senior prosecutor Maria Franzén at the Swedish Prosecution Authority sees the increase as a consequence of rising crime rates among children and young people.

Since the proportion of children participating in this type of crime is increasing, it's an expected effect that the number of cases with evidentiary proceedings also increases, she tells Swedish public radio SR.

Not criminally responsible

Of the 68 children, a full 43 are suspected of involvement in murder, preparation for murder, or attempted murder. Among the high-profile cases is a then 13-year-old boy who allegedly shot and killed a person with connections to criminal networks inside a restaurant.

An evidentiary proceeding means that a court determines the question of guilt, but since children under 15 are not criminally responsible under Swedish law, no sentence is imposed.

Evidentiary proceedings are a good tool for social services to implement appropriate interventions for these children who have committed these crimes, says August Knutsson at the Swedish Police Authority's national operations center.

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