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Sweden gears up defense spending to protect “pressured” US-led “rules-based world order”

The new cold war

Published 18 October 2024
– By Editorial Staff
Defence Minister Pål Jonson (M) says it is "time to speed up the growth of defence".

The world order established by the United States, which is under pressure, must be supported and maintained by Sweden. This is a recurring message in the centre-right government’s overall defence bill presented on Tuesday.

For the years 2025-2030, 15 “extra” billion euros are earmarked for military defence – and just under €3.15 billion for civil defence, to meet the expectations of the leadership of the increasingly isolated Western bloc.

The government of the day wants to invest in defence – and invest heavily, it announced on Tuesday when presenting the bill.

“These are historic investments. Defence spending will reach 2.6% of GDP as early as 2028”, it was announced at Tuesday’s press conference.

The background to the bill clearly expresses concern that what it calls the “rules-based world order”, a term commonly used to describe the US-led liberal power structure based on the post-World War II Western bloc, is “under pressure”. The government warns of actors advocating an alternative world order with “multiple centres of power and value bases”.

“The driving forces for a different order are Russia and China. They are promoting a multipolar world order with several different centres of power and value systems, and have the ambition to weaken the global position of the United States and the rest of the Western world”, the government proposal continues.

Flags for US confrontation with China

The government further states that, against this background, the US is more clearly focusing on China as an actor “that has both the intention and the ability to shift the world order in its own favour”. This, it flags, could have major consequences for Sweden as well, pointing out that Sweden and other countries allied with the United States will be expected to participate with resources on the American side in the country’s new conflict areas in Asia.

The US strategic focus on China is expected to lead to increased expectations of engagement and behaviour from European and Asian allies”.

What it describes as “a continued US shift in emphasis towards the Indo-Pacific region in particular”, together with general domestic political trends, will also mean that the US has fewer resources to invest in Europe, and that the country’s European allies, including Sweden, will therefore have to compensate by making greater military investments.

Domestic political developments may lead the US to choose a different foreign and security policy direction in the future, for example with regard to support for Ukraine. Generational and demographic changes may also reduce support for transatlantic engagement over time,” the bill explains.

Regardless of future administrations, we are likely to see a continued US shift in emphasis towards the Indo-Pacific region in particular, which means that European allies will have to take increasing responsibility for European security”, it continues.

War organisation to grow to 135 000

In practical terms, the Swedish Armed Forces will focus on acquiring more weapons of most types – including combat vehicles and tanks, better anti-aircraft and rocket artillery, more drones and the introduction of the Archer systems already ordered.

The Navy will also receive increased funding, with ships to be equipped with anti-aircraft missile systems and coastal missile capabilities to be expanded. New Luleå-class warships are also to be acquired, which will “provide the navy with increased capability and capacity” and contribute to air defence capabilities.

The air force will be strengthened, various types of aircraft and helicopters will be purchased, and Sweden will be integrated into NATO’s air and missile defence (IAMD) “to deter or, if necessary, prevent or mitigate threats from the air domain”.

The government’s proposal also focuses on innovation, technology development and defence research, including “strengthening Sweden’s role in NATO as a credible space actor through participation in various initiatives such as space-based reconnaissance and surveillance, responsive launch and satellite communications in the Arctic”, as well as digitising intelligence organisations and “strengthening the capability for defensive and offensive cyber operations”.

Overall, the armed forces will grow from 88,000 personnel today to 135,000 by 2035, with the number of conscripts gradually increasing to 12,000 per year and four new army brigades being completed over the next six years.

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Finnish security service: Severed sea cables likely accidental

The new cold war

Published 23 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The seized tanker Eagle S.

Finnish authorities are expected to conclude shortly the preliminary investigation against the tanker Eagle S, accused of causing damage to the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia, as well as to several telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea.

Suspicions were initially directed at the Eagle S, which was alleged to have deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed, thereby damaging the cables.

Finnish authorities boarded the vessel and started questioning the crew. However, Customs announced that no criminal investigation will be opened against the crew, as they are not deemed to have willfully violated any sanctions.

So far, no other evidence has been presented to suggest that the crew intentionally caused the damage. The National Bureau of Investigation has stated that the active preliminary phase of the investigation will soon be completed, reports Helsingin Sanomat via TT.

Despite this, suspicions of gross sabotage against the Eagle S remain. The ship is still seized, and a Finnish court has rejected the owner’s request to release it.

Lack of evidence

Russia has consistently dismissed Western claims that Russian ships deliberately sabotaged the submarine cables as “baseless”. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova argues that the US-led NATO military pact is creating myths to justify an increased presence in the Baltic Sea and to limit Russian oil exports.

It should be noted that no concrete evidence linking Russia to the incident has been presented to date, according to Helsingin Sanomat, citing five sources familiar with the investigation. The information was also confirmed to Hufvudstadsbladet by a source in the Finnish state administration with insight into the case.

In the meantime, Finland and Estonia continue to work on repairs to the damaged cables. Fingrid, Finland’s national grid operator, has requested a court to seize the Eagle S to secure claims for damages related to Estlink 2.

Meanwhile, NATO has increased its presence in the Baltic Sea region in what it describes as “a precautionary measure against potential threats to critical infrastructure”. The other day, Operation Baltic Sentry was launched to patrol and protect important underwater structures such as gas pipelines and internet cables.

The Finnish authorities stress that the investigation into Eagle S is expected to be completed shortly.

Swedish MEP wants to “defeat” the Kremlin

The new cold war

Published 16 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Emma Wiesner is one of many Swedish leaders who have recently started using increasingly aggressive rhetoric.

In a short period of time, the rhetoric of Swedish leaders has become increasingly belligerent and aggressive, while diplomacy and dialogue are rarely put forward as a viable option.

Emma Wiesner, MEP for the Center Party, is one of those accused of fueling the conflict, openly posting on social media about how “we” should “defeat” the Kremlin.

The fact that Swedish politicians’ attitude towards Russia has become even more hostile in recent months was made abundantly clear at Folk och Försvar’s national conference in Sälen this past weekend. At the conference, Ulf Kristersson declared that Sweden is certainly not currently at war but emphasized that “there is no peace either”.

The Swedish Minister of Defense, Pål Jonson, gave a similar message, declaring that supporting Kiev in the war was no longer a “choice”  but a “duty”.

– This is a war with profound global consequences that further weakens the rules-based world order… We must assume that Russia will pose a very serious threat to us and our allies for the foreseeable future, he said.

Emma Wiesner of the Center Party is one of those who has joined the war rhetoric and believes that the Russian leadership must be defeated.

It is completely unreasonable that Russian ships transporting Putin’s gas through the Arctic are given maintenance in EU ports. It is high time to extend sanctions to Russian LNG – we cannot defeat the Kremlin regime until we cut off the flow of money to the war chest”, she writes on X.

“Ukraine’s cause is ours”

However, it is not clear how and at what cost the Kremlin will be defeated or what role Sweden will play in this, and critics point out that sanctions against Russia have so far not produced the desired results.

You seem angry, but it won’t help you ‘defeat the regime in the Kremlin’, the only thing that can happen with your advice is that we dig ourselves even deeper into economic misery in Europe. But of course, as an MEP, you’re not exactly in the same boat as the rest of us”, commented one annoyed user.

Wiesner has previously declared that “Ukraine’s cause is ours” and that a Russian victory on the battlefield cannot be accepted under any circumstances as it would lead to a “fundamentally different Europe” than today.

Swedish Armed Forces unveil drone swarms: “Can be as many as needed”

The new cold war

Published 15 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The drones are described as "trucks" that can carry both weapons and cameras.

The Swedish Armed Forces have been working on a new drone project over the past year, under great secrecy, together with weapons manufacturer Saab, where large swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles will be used in military operations.

–They can be as many as needed – thousands, if desired, says Saab CEO Micael Johansson

The main focus has been on developing new software that is said to enable the drones to form swarms and perform tasks almost automatically, without any operator having to control each individual aircraft in detail.

It’s not about piloting drones, you give them a mission on an iPad or mobile phone, then the drone swarm goes out and does this, the Saab top executive told TT during a press conference, explaining that a soldier can learn the system in a few days.

A possible drone mission could be to monitor a road by flying over it and transmitting images or video from the site, while scouting for enemies that the drones can also identify. By using hundreds or thousands of drones, very large areas can be monitored in this way, and if a few drones are disrupted, this also has little impact.

Although this has not been part of the project so far, it is also possible that in the future the drones will be armed and used to attack enemy forces.

You can update this software and do amazing things in the long run, says Micael Johansson.

Should not make their own decisions

According to Army Chief of Staff Jonny Lindfors, the drones should be considered “trucks” and it is up to the decision-makers to decide what cargo they should carry.

– But the basic principle that still applies is that in an armed operation there should be a human being making the decisions, he says.

Swedish soldiers have already started training with the new system and it will also be used in the NATO exercise Arctic Strike in March. The Swedish Armed Forces are also in the process of acquiring tens of thousands of drones, but they won’t say how much the new system will cost.

Sweden’s Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M) is careful to point out, however, that a project of this kind usually takes about five years to complete and that it is “uniquely fast” that the software has been developed in just one year.

EU imports of Russian liquefied natural gas reach record levels

The new cold war

Published 14 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Russian LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie.

Despite EU sanctions and stated ambitions to sharply reduce imports of Russian fossil fuels, Europe still imported record amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2024.

According to experts, there is a logical reason for the increase Russian gas is simply much cheaper than its competitors.

Data from Rystad Energy shows that 17.8 million tons of Russian LNG were delivered to European ports last year, an increase of over 2 million tons compared to the previous year.

Despite a significant drop in piped gas imports from Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine and the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, the EU continued to purchase record amounts of the country’s LNG. This has been possible as the chilled fuel has been only partially covered by the sanctions imposed by Union member states.

The energy analyst firm released the data shortly after Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory to the EU. Kiev opted to scrap a five-year transit agreement with Russian energy giant Gazprom at the end of 2024, halting the flow of natural gas from Russia to Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy and Moldova.

Russian LNG deliveries to the EU not only increased but reached “record levels”, according to Jan-Eric Fahnrich, gas analyst at Rystad Energy. He states that Russia surpassed Qatar as the bloc’s second-largest supplier of LNG in 2024, after the United States.

According to Fahnrich, the EU bought 49.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas through pipelines last year, and another 24.2 billion cubic meters of LNG, some of which was re-exported to other countries.

“Fairly simple”

Data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) show slightly lower figures, but even these reflect an overall trend of sharply increasing Russian LNG exports. According to Crea, EU imports of Russian LNG increased by 14% year-on-year in 2024 to 17.5 million tons and were worth €7.32 billion.

– The reason for the rise is fairly simple. Russian LNG is offered at a discount to alternative suppliers. With no sanctions imposed on the commodity, companies are operating in their own self-interest and buying increasing quantities of gas from the cheapest supplier, explains Crea’s Russia analyst Vaibhav Raghunandan.

The latest estimates significantly outpace recent projections by Bloomberg, which earlier this week said LNG deliveries from Russia to the EU had risen to 15.5 million tons by 2024 compared to 2020, when the EU imported about 10.5 million tons of the fuel.