The consequences of declining fertility will be severe, says Swedish economics professor Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde. He warns that the trend could lead to a “population collapse” within the next 50 years.
The global birth rate is currently 2.23 children per woman, according to the UN. For the population to remain stable, an average of 2.1 children per woman is required, but Fernandez-Villaverde argues that in practice the actual limit is 2.2 children per woman. He also argues that the UN statistics are based on uncertain estimates.
– I and other demographers and economists argue that the UN methodology has not captured the recent decline. The real figure actually fell below 2.2 already last year, he told the Bonnier newspaper DN.
According to the professor, childbirth has declined globally since the 1960s and accelerated further around 2014-2015. He points to factors such as increased housing costs, social media and high educational requirements as possible causes. Furthermore, he believes that the decline in fertility could constitute a “population collapse”.
– It will change the world completely in the next 50 years, he says.
In Sweden, the birth rate is at a seriously low level of 1.45 children per woman, the lowest level ever recorded. Despite this, the figure in Sweden, as in the other Nordic countries, is not as catastrophically low as in many other industrialized countries, such as South Korea, where the average is as low as 0.7 children per woman. At the same time, the professor believes that Sweden must also raise its birth rate if the trend is to remain stable.
– I really believe that we need to increase the birth rate. Not much, but if we manage to maintain a level of, say, 1.8, it will be easier for society to manage the decline.
