Seismic activity on the Reykjanes Peninsula has increased in recent days, which is interpreted as an increased risk of a new volcanic eruption.

Iceland was hit by strong earthquakes in late 2023, which triggered a volcanic eruption. Since then, several eruptions have occurred, causing widespread evacuations, particularly in Grindavík and at the popular Blue Lagoon spa. The most recent eruption occurred in November, when both residents and tourists had to leave the area. Despite warnings from the authorities, some tourists went right up to the lava flows to photograph them.

Four small earthquakes

Four small earthquakes were recorded on Tuesday morning and the Icelandic Meteorological Office believes this could be a sign of an imminent eruption.

– The situation is that we are seeing clear signs of increased seismic activity, especially in the last week. Both at the magma intrusion site, but we are also seeing an increase in seismic activity both northwest and northeast of Grindavík. This has been happening over the past two to three days, Steinunn Helgadóttir, a natural disaster specialist at the Icelandic Meteorological Authority, told Icelandic state broadcaster RUV.

If a new eruption occurs, the warning time may be short. In previous eruptions, it took between 30 and 40 minutes from the first signs to the start of the eruption.

– We expect something similar for this eruption, she says.

Following the volcanic eruptions, the Icelandic government estimates the damage to Grindavík at ISK 80 billion (€538 million). Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson says the future of the town is uncertain and that reconstruction will require patience.

It was about a year ago that earthquakes and threats of volcanic eruptions led to the evacuation of all residents of the town. In a short time, Grindavík was hit by hundreds of earthquakes and magma was found to be flowing in a 15-kilometer-long fissure 800 meters underground.

Shortly after the earthquakes, the first volcanic eruption occurred, and since then the area has experienced five more eruptions. Although protective walls were erected around the city, the lava still flowed in and set buildings on fire.

Billions of kroner in damages

A new report by Iceland’s Prime Minister, Bjarni Benediktsson, maps out the costs of the damage in Grindavík and possible future scenarios for the town, as reported by Iceland Review. The total expenditure and investment costs of the Icelandic state as a result of the outbreaks are estimated at ISK 80 billion, equivalent to about €538 million.

Most of the costs are linked to a public investment company that has been buying up homes from residents who want to sell after the outbreaks. Additional costs relate to the protective walls that were set up around the city.

While a large proportion of properties in Grindavík escaped serious damage, 63 buildings were damaged beyond repair. Most of the damage was caused by the earthquakes, not by the lava from the eruptions.

Residents have now been allowed to return to their homes, but although 1,600 people are registered in Grindavík, only around 100 appear to have returned.

The Prime Minister emphasizes that the rebuilding process requires patience, partly because it is still unclear whether the volcanic eruptions will continue. According to researchers from Uppsala University and elsewhere, there is a risk that the eruptions could continue for decades to come.