When Sweden joined NATO a year ago, the decision was justified on the grounds that we would be safer and more secure in the US-led military pact.

Now the future of the organization seems increasingly uncertain, and it is unclear whether the Americans would really come to Sweden’s rescue if such a need arose.

Isak Svensson, a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, notes that the NATO Sweden joined last year has already changed significantly.

He points out that the early stages of Donald Trump’s presidency have brought radical changes in the US view of the military alliance and foreign policy in general, and that the US now seems to have a very different attitude towards Russia than under the more hostile Biden administration.

– Sweden entered NATO with expectations of how it was, but now we see how the US is changing. If the US starts to waver, it’s very problematic, he says.

Ulf Kristersson’s government has previously argued that Swedish security would be strengthened by membership of the military pact – referring in particular to NATO’s Article 5 and the “security guarantee” whereby all members must help another member state if it is attacked – militarily or otherwise.

“Precarious situation”

Although the “security guarantee” has not been officially rejected, many observers are now concerned that it no longer applies in practice in the same way as before, and that Sweden is not at all guaranteed US support if it is attacked.

– It is a great irony that Sweden becomes the 32nd member, while the transatlantic link is in a precarious situation, says Magnus Christiansson, a war scientist at the Swedish National Defense University.

Despite the uncertainty, he is still in favor of Swedish NATO membership and believes that Sweden would not have been able to cooperate militarily or receive the same support from the other 31 member states if it was outside the military pact.

A common EU army?

The US has been a dominant power in Europe for many decades – both diplomatically and militarily, but Christiansson believes that Sweden and Europe are becoming less dependent on the Americans and are instead finding new ways to cooperate.

– In every meeting now, they talk about Europe having to take more responsibility, he says.

What this will mean in practice is not entirely clear, but several European leaders have recently emphasized the importance of building a common European army, arguing that this is necessary if the US reduces its military presence on the continent.

Such an “EU army” would also make it easier to continue to assist Ukraine and continue the war against Russia should the Americans pull out completely.