Only one in ten Europeans believes Ukraine will win

The war in Ukraine

Published 22 February 2024
- By Editorial Staff
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky.

Only one in ten Europeans believes that Ukraine can defeat Russia militarily, according to a new poll. Instead, a large proportion believe the war will end with “some kind of compromise”.

It is now almost two years since the war in Ukraine began. Despite widespread support for a Ukrainian victory, the latest poll shows that Europeans are increasingly skeptical about the country’s chances of winning the conflict. Only one in ten respondents believe in a Ukrainian victory, according to a poll commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Affairs. At the same time, about 20% believe that Russia will win the war. However, most Europeans still say they are “desperate to prevent a Russian victory”.

The survey included respondents from France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Romania, Greece and Sweden.

– To make the case for continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders need to change the way they talk about the war, said Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Affairs, according to The Guardian.

The most common view, shared by 37% of respondents, was that the war will end with “some kind of compromise”. Sweden, Poland and Portugal were the most optimistic countries, but even there fewer than one in five thought Ukraine would win. These three countries were also the most likely to think that Europe would help Ukraine fight back. Meanwhile, respondents in Hungary, Greece and Italy were more likely to think that Ukraine would accept some kind of settlement.