Thursday, October 2, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

Antarctic ice levels show recent growth

Published 25 May 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Between 2021 and 2023, the ice mass increased by an average of 108 gigatonnes per year - likely due to increased precipitation.
1 minute read

Antarctica has long been associated with melting ice – but between 2021 and 2023, new research shows unexpected growth.

Using NASA satellite data, researchers from Tongji University in China measured Antarctic ice masses between 2002 and 2023, focusing mainly on four East Antarctic glacier areas – Denman, Moscow, Totten and Vincennes Bay – located in the Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land area.

Over the period 2002-2010, the ice mass in Antarctica decreased by an average of 74 gigatons per year, the results, presented in Science China Earth Sciences, show. Furthermore, the ice mass decreased further between 2011 and 2020, with the loss reaching 142 gigatons per year. This has contributed to a sharp rise in sea levels.

Despite the significant decrease, the trend reversed dramatically between 2021 and 2023, when the ice mass increased by an average of 108 gigatonnes per year. The main reason is believed to be that the area had high precipitation compared to previous years. This has contributed to an average increase in sea levels of 0.3 millimeters per year.

The researchers emphasize that the increase may be a temporary trend and does not necessarily mean that ice masses will continue to increase.

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Finland’s wolf population grows dramatically

Biodiversity

Published yesterday 13:14
– By Editorial Staff
Wolves have been observed in new locations, primarily in southwestern Finland.
1 minute read

Finland’s wolf population increased markedly last year – significantly more than in previous years. The largest growth occurred in the western parts of the country.

In March last year, the number of wolves in Finland was estimated at 295 individuals. By March this year, the figure had grown to 430. The numbers are estimates based on recorded observations, DNA monitoring, and data on wolf mortality. The number of wolves could therefore be between 413 and 465 individuals.

The number of individuals has grown by a full 46 percent compared to last year, so it’s a really dramatic increase, says researcher Mia Valtonen at the Finnish Natural Resources Institute to Yle.

The wolf population has increased mainly in western Finland, particularly in the southwestern parts. However, wolves have been observed in significantly larger areas than before, even in places where they have never been seen previously.

In Scandinavia, the wolf has long been considered threatened and has had strong protection, but in May the EU Parliament approved a downgrading of the wolf’s protection status. This means that population management hunting could now be permitted in Finland, something that Finnish Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Sari Essayah has strongly advocated for.

Without population management hunting, the number of wolves is calculated to increase to 557 individuals in November and 436 in March next year. With population management hunting, there would of course be fewer, says Samu Mäntyniemi, leading researcher at the Natural Resources Institute.

Baltic Sea in critical condition – fishing bans no longer sufficient

Published 30 September 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The EU's fishing plan for the Baltic Sea has failed and fish stocks cannot be saved even with a fishing ban, a new report shows.
1 minute read

The Baltic Sea is in such poor condition that even fishing bans are insufficient to save fish stocks, according to a new EU report. Today, EU ministers will hold a crisis meeting in Stockholm, Sweden to discuss the situation.

In about a month, EU countries must decide on fishing quotas for the Baltic Sea for next year. However, a new report commissioned by the EU ahead of this decision-making process, written by fisheries expert Christian Möllmann from the University of Hamburg, Germany, concludes that the current system implemented in the Baltic Sea is not working as intended.

“The MAP has largely failed to achieve its objective of restoring and maintaining harvested species populations above MSY levels”, the report states.

Furthermore, Möllmann warns that even a complete fishing ban in the Baltic Sea would not be sufficient for fish stocks to recover.

“A fast recovery of cod and open sea herring stocks is unlikely even under a fishing ban”.

On Tuesday, a meeting will be held in Stockholm where fisheries and climate ministers, commissioners, and various EU parliamentarians from Baltic Sea countries will gather to discuss the situation. Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall will lead the meeting together with her fisheries counterpart Costas Kadis.

We all know that the Baltic Sea is in very poor condition and has been for a long time. But I think there is much greater cooperation between countries today, Roswall told Swedish news agency TT.

“Climate catastrophe in computer models”

The exaggerated climate crisis

Computer models warning of Gulf Stream collapse are based on incorrect assumptions about Greenland ice sheet melting. Media worsens the situation by incorrectly calling computer simulations "studies", writes Tege Tornvall.

Published 17 September 2025
– By Tege Tornvall
Photo: iStock/gorodenkoff
2 minute read

Much of the world’s climate research is conducted using computers. Various hypothetical scenarios (sequences of events) are run with different assumptions about influencing factors. Depending on the chosen assumptions, they naturally produce different results.

Media incorrectly calls such computer runs “studies”. This gives the impression that they would actually happen in reality. But they don’t. They are simply assumptions. Computers calculate based on what they are fed.

A current example concerns the Atlantic’s major ocean current AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). This includes the Gulf Stream, which gives western Europe a milder climate than we would otherwise have. German professor Stefan Rahmstorf and others have calculated its possible development.

The assumption is that more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would cause Greenland’s large ice sheet to melt. Based on this, computer models calculate the possible risk that the Gulf Stream would weaken or even collapse. This would likely give us a colder climate.

The computers seem to have run hot. With continued increasing CO2 levels, 70 percent of model runs show that the Gulf Stream would collapse before 2100. Even with less CO2 input, they calculate a 25 percent risk of collapse.

But the assumption itself is flawed. Partly because higher CO2 levels have marginal and logarithmically decreasing warming effects in the atmosphere. Partly because Greenland’s large ice expanses have annual average temperatures of minus 20-30 degrees Celsius.

Returning researchers find their camps covered with snow and ice. The old US military base Camp Century in northwestern Greenland has been covered with 30 meters of ice since it was closed over 50 years ago.

That surrounding sea ice decreases in summer and grows in winter does not affect sea level and hardly affects currents either.

Even though some researchers warn of a weaker Gulf Stream, others do not. According to ocean researcher Léon Chafik at Stockholm University, Sweden, we should not let ourselves be frightened by speculation that the Gulf Stream will soon collapse. His colleague Frederik Schenk urges us to stop alarming about the Gulf Stream.

 

Tege Tornvall

Logging in Sweden may have worsened the flood disaster

Published 17 September 2025
– By Editorial Staff
A freight train carrying ammunition and diesel derailed after the heavy rainfall.
2 minute read

The Swedish Forest Agency has warned for several years that logging near infrastructure increases risks during flash floods. Now an analysis shows that logging may have partially contributed to the recent disasters in Västernorrland, northern Sweden.

In recent weeks, flash floods in Västernorrland, a county in northern Sweden, have caused chaos in society. A large number of roads have been destroyed, trains carrying hazardous goods have derailed, and one person has died as a result of the disasters. In Kramfors, for example, 123.5 millimeters of rain fell in one day, which is the highest recorded in September since 1913 – according to statistics from SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute).

One of the causes behind the chaos may be Swedish forestry, according to an analysis conducted by the Swedish Forest Agency. Two of the worst disasters in Västernorrland have occurred in areas where large amounts of forest have been logged in recent years, shows the data that Bonnier publication DN has accessed.

One disaster occurred outside Härnösand, where a man drove into a crack in a destroyed road and died. The other disaster involved a freight train that derailed in Skorped by a lake, where the train contained ammunition and diesel among other things.

The Swedish Forest Agency has warned that extensive logging can affect vital societal functions for several years, especially when it occurs on steep slopes. In several reports submitted to the Swedish government, the agency has raised this issue, but nothing has happened.

We have warned about the risks for a very long time and it seems to be exactly what we’re seeing examples of now. We need to do a proper analysis of cause and effect clearly, but based on what we know about how logging affects runoff, it looks problematic, says Anja Lomander, soil specialist at the Swedish Forest Agency.

“Must change quickly”

Forest logging can cause runoff to double during flash floods, since the trees are not there to both catch water in the tree crowns and absorb it through the roots, something that is particularly risky on steep slopes. Vehicle tracks and ditches also make it easier for water to flow down, and these types of logging operations have increased in Sweden in recent years.

Lomander believes there is a lack of both knowledge and resources in the area, and that current regulations mean the Swedish Forest Agency’s reviews of forest owners’ logging notifications are insufficient.

It must change quickly so that no more lives are lost and so that the costs to society don’t become enormous, she says.

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