Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

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Young Swedes worried about their finances

Published 30 October 2023
– By Editorial Staff
Among Swedes who are in a relationship, 43% say they would not be able to maintain their lifestyle if the relationship ended now.

Nearly one in five Swedes feel anxiety because of their finances, according to a new report. Among young people, this applies to as many as one in three, according to the report Pengakollen: A Sustainable Everyday Economy, conducted by Kantar Public on behalf of the ICA Bank.

In the study, 1,001 Swedes aged 18-79 were interviewed between September 6-11, 2023. It revealed that 17 percent experience anxiety about their finances several times a month, feeling they have spent too much money and lived beyond their means. Among those aged 18-29, this figure stands at 34 percent.

– The fact that so many, especially the young, feel bad about their finances speaks volumes about the economic situation. If you consume beyond your limits and experience financial anxiety because of it, you need to review your priorities, says Magnus Hjelmér, household economist at ICA Bank, in a press release.

Furthermore, more than one in ten Swedes repeatedly use their savings to cover ongoing household expenses. Young people do this more frequently, with one in five aged 18–29 stating that they dip into their savings at least once a month. 28 percent say they can set aside money at the end of the month, while 15 percent claim they have no savings habits at all.

Among Swedes in relationships, 43 percent say they would not be able to maintain their current lifestyle if the relationship ended at the moment. About one in three Swedes are concerned about rising housing costs over the next six months. When it comes to buying second-hand clothes or giving used gifts to others, 20 percent and 22 percent respectively state they wouldn’t be able to do so.

– The reality we find ourselves in now demands that we make smart and long-term financial decisions, regardless of age, notes Hjelmér.

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China reaches 5 percent growth target

Published 20 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Images from Yanta, an urban district of Xi'an in Shaanxi province in northern China.

China has achieved its stated goal of 5% growth for 2024, despite reported challenges such as falling government bond yields and weak domestic demand.

Donald Trump’s planned new tariffs are described as a significant risk to the country’s export-dependent economy by BNP Paribas economist Jacqueline Rong, while Hong Kong-based analyst Louis-Vincent Gave argues that China’s resilience is underestimated in international coverage.

China has reached its target of 5% GDP growth for 2024, according to the country’s official statistics agency. This is despite several reported challenges, including falling interest rates on Chinese government securities and weak domestic demand. International media coverage has often emphasized these signals as signs of an emerging crisis.

Jacqueline Ron, China economist at BNP Paribas, points out that the planned new tariffs by former US President Donald Trump pose a particular threat to China’s export-dependent economy.

– The biggest problem this year will be the US tariffs, Ron told Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, China is grappling with a still-challenging real estate market and fierce competition in the global market, which has contributed to some uncertainty about the country’s economic future.

Hong Kong-based analyst critical of “crisis narrative”

At the same time, there are voices among experts against interpreting the economic situation as a crisis. Hong Kong-based analyst Louis-Vincent Gave argues that falling yields on Chinese government securities are not a sign of economic collapse but rather part of a broader global trend.

– Historically, when emerging markets collapse, bond yields tend to go up, not down. I do not believe in the narrative of a Chinese implosion. Moreover, if we did, we would see a stock market collapse, which is not happening, says Gave.

He also speculates that the falling rates could be the result of policy decisions in China in response to Trump’s tariff threats.

I’m not saying that’s what happened, but if Chinese institutions were instructed to sell US bonds in response to political tensions, we would see just that: falling Chinese bond yields and rising US ones, he explains.

Gave also points to some positive indicators that are often overlooked in international coverage, highlighting that China’s stock market outperformed the US last year and that the country’s economy has also made progress in strategic sectors such as electric car manufacturing.

– If China really imploded, Chinese stocks would collapse. And they are not, he says.

Reports: Chinese firms interested in Volkswagen’s struggling factories

Published 17 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff

Chinese companies are showing interest in buying up Volkswagen’s factories in Germany, a strategic move that could potentially transform the automotive industry in Europe. The investments would strengthen China’s presence in European vehicle production, but also raise concerns about the future of the industry and political reactions.

Volkswagen plans to close its factories in Dresden and Osnabrück by 2027 as part of the company’s fight to cut costs and face stiffening competition from Chinese electric car makers.

Volkswagen might consider selling the Osnabrück factory to a Chinese buyer, according to a person familiar with the company’s deliberations who spoke to Reuters.

However, a Volkswagen spokesperson emphasizes that “We are committed to finding a continued use for the site. The goal must be a viable solution that takes into account the interests of the company and employees”.

Could bypass car tariffs

Chinese investment in Germany has in the past included sectors such as telecommunications and robotics, but establishment in traditional car manufacturing has so far failed to materialize.

The Chinese are interested in car manufacturing in Europe in general, potentially avoiding EU tariffs on imported electric cars and strengthening their market presence, as several manufacturers have already done. For example, BYD is building plants in Hungary and Turkey, while Chery plans to start manufacturing at a former Nissan plant in Spain. Leapmotor has also considered using a factory in Germany for its production.

Reuters also reports that a source close to the Chinese government said that Chinese companies are actively exploring opportunities to buy factories that Volkswagen plans to close.

Volkswagen Wolfsburg
Volkswagen’s crown jewel: Wolfsburg Volkswagen Plant. Photo: High Contrast/CC BY 2.0

A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry urged Germany to welcome Chinese investment.

– China has introduced a series of opening-up measures to create new business opportunities for foreign companies … It is hoped that the German side will also uphold an open mind, (and) provide a fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese firms to invest.

Opposition from German trade unions

However, a sale of Volkswagen’s plants to Chinese operators could face opposition from German trade unions, which have significant influence and may demand guarantees on jobs and factory locations.

Moreover, relations between Germany and China have become increasingly strained in recent years and, in light of the upcoming German elections, the decision-making process on Chinese investment currently appears somewhat uncertain.

However, selling factories to Chinese companies could prove to be financially beneficial for Volkswagen. According to an anonymous source, a sale could generate revenues of between €100 million and €300 million per plant.

At the same time, it also carries the risk of German car brands losing their historical edge and competitiveness in Germany, which is the largest national car market in Europe.

Facts about Volkswagen:

Volkswagen was founded in 1937 in Germany on the initiative of then Chancellor Adolf Hitler, as part of a drive for a people's car for all. After World War II, the company recovered to become a global automotive player, known for iconic models such as the Volkswagen Type 1 (the "Beetle"). Today, Volkswagen is one of the world's largest car manufacturers, owning brands such as Audi, Porsche and Skoda.

EU imports of Russian liquefied natural gas reach record levels

The new cold war

Published 14 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Russian LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie.

Despite EU sanctions and stated ambitions to sharply reduce imports of Russian fossil fuels, Europe still imported record amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2024.

According to experts, there is a logical reason for the increase Russian gas is simply much cheaper than its competitors.

Data from Rystad Energy shows that 17.8 million tons of Russian LNG were delivered to European ports last year, an increase of over 2 million tons compared to the previous year.

Despite a significant drop in piped gas imports from Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine and the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, the EU continued to purchase record amounts of the country’s LNG. This has been possible as the chilled fuel has been only partially covered by the sanctions imposed by Union member states.

The energy analyst firm released the data shortly after Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory to the EU. Kiev opted to scrap a five-year transit agreement with Russian energy giant Gazprom at the end of 2024, halting the flow of natural gas from Russia to Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy and Moldova.

Russian LNG deliveries to the EU not only increased but reached “record levels”, according to Jan-Eric Fahnrich, gas analyst at Rystad Energy. He states that Russia surpassed Qatar as the bloc’s second-largest supplier of LNG in 2024, after the United States.

According to Fahnrich, the EU bought 49.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas through pipelines last year, and another 24.2 billion cubic meters of LNG, some of which was re-exported to other countries.

“Fairly simple”

Data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) show slightly lower figures, but even these reflect an overall trend of sharply increasing Russian LNG exports. According to Crea, EU imports of Russian LNG increased by 14% year-on-year in 2024 to 17.5 million tons and were worth €7.32 billion.

– The reason for the rise is fairly simple. Russian LNG is offered at a discount to alternative suppliers. With no sanctions imposed on the commodity, companies are operating in their own self-interest and buying increasing quantities of gas from the cheapest supplier, explains Crea’s Russia analyst Vaibhav Raghunandan.

The latest estimates significantly outpace recent projections by Bloomberg, which earlier this week said LNG deliveries from Russia to the EU had risen to 15.5 million tons by 2024 compared to 2020, when the EU imported about 10.5 million tons of the fuel.

Swedish food prices soar – up 25 percent in three years

The destruction of the European economy

Published 9 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The price was increased on almost 36,000 food products last year.

Food prices in Sweden have risen by 25% over the past three years, according to a new report from Matpriskollen, a Swedish consumer price tracking organization. In 2024, the most significant price increases were seen in chocolate, olive oil, coffee, and dairy products.

In 2024, food prices increased by 2.8%. If other grocery products are also included, the increase is 2.1%.

Overall price increases have reached 25% since January 2022, according to the report.

The increases vary between stores, and last year they were most noticeable at City Gross, Ica Kvantum, Hemköp and Ica Supermarket. At the same time, some stores are trying to compete by keeping prices lower.

– Maxi is chasing Willys for low prices and in many cases trying to match prices. The price difference on comparable items is around 4% between Willys and Maxi. Lidl, which also offers low prices, has the same price level on directly comparable items as Willys, says Ulf Mazur, CEO and founder of Matpriskollen in a press release.

36 000 products became more expensive

In 2024, the price of almost 36,000 products increased. The increase was particularly marked for cocoa, which has made chocolate on average 17% more expensive. Vinegar and oils also rose by 12%, with olive oil in particular recording a sharp price increase.

Coffee prices have reached their highest level since 1972, with an 18% increase over the year. Dairy products, meanwhile, have risen by 4.7%.

Organic goods rose by 3.6% over the year, according to Matpriskollen.