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Monday, October 13, 2025

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https://nordictimes.com/economy/from-trade-war-to-industrial-warfare-the-battle-for-rare-earth-metals/

Economy

From trade war to industrial warfare – the battle for rare earth metals

The new cold war

Published today 13:15
– By Editorial Staff
China controls 90% of the world's rare earth metals, minerals found in everything from smartphones to fighter jets.
8 minute read
Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

On October 10, China detonated a bomb – not with missiles, but with minerals. New export controls on rare earth metals now threaten to suffocate the entire global high-tech supply chain.

Two superpowers stand face to face in what has become an industrial war. The Nordic Times summarizes the dramatic escalation that has changed the playing field between the USA and China.

The development has been described by analysts as an “economic Pearl Harbor”. This is no longer just about trade policy countermeasures, but about mutual economic mass destruction where both sides are prepared to take major damage to win.

What began as a trade war about tariffs has transformed into a battle for control over the elements that drive the modern world.

What happened on October 10?

On October 10, 2025, China imposed new tightened export controls on rare earth metals and related technology. The regulations require special licenses for export of products containing more than 0.1% rare earth metals from China – or manufactured with Chinese production technology.

It sounds technical, but the implications are explosive. As journalist Mario Nawfal states: “That’s laptops, batteries, EVs – basically the modern world”.

With a stroke of the pen, Beijing gained veto power over large parts of the world’s high-tech production.

President Donald Trump responded within hours. He threatened an additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “on top of all tariffs they are currently paying,” with start on November 1. Trump called China’s move “absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace”.

The market reaction was brutal – in a single day, $2 trillion in market value disappeared from American stock markets. The Dow Jones fell by 879 points (1.9%), the S&P 500 dropped 2.71%, and the Nasdaq plunged 3.56% – the worst days since April.

Why are rare earth metals so important?

To understand why the world now stands on the brink of an economic crisis, one must understand what rare earth metals are – and why China controls them.

China accounts for 70% of global rare earth metal mining and 90% of the world’s processing and refining. The country produces as much as 95% of the world’s rare earth magnets.

These minerals are used in everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to military equipment and renewable energy technology. Rare earth metals are critical components in advanced military technology – from fighter jets to submarines, these critical minerals power essential systems.

The figures are striking: A single F-35 fighter jet contains over 400 kg of rare earth metals, while a Virginia-class submarine requires a full 4,600 kg. Rare earth metals are also critical for medical technology in laser surgery and MRI scanning.

Already in 1992, the then Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping stated that “the Middle East has oil and China has rare earths”. It wasn’t just an observation – it was a long-term strategy that is now reaching its culmination.

From trade war to industrial war

The trade conflict between the USA and China began in 2018 during Donald Trump’s first presidential term, when the USA imposed tariffs on Chinese goods to limit the growing American trade deficit with China.

During the Joe Biden administration (2021-2025), the tensions continued, with Trump’s tariffs remaining and Biden imposing restrictions on American exports of technological knowledge and advanced chips to China.

When Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, the conflict quickly escalated. On April 2, 2025, during what Trump called “liberation day,” the USA imposed an additional 34 percent tariff, which increased the total tariff against China up to 54 percent.

China responded on April 4 with export restrictions on seven rare earth metals, and tariffs quickly escalated to a minimum of 145 percent during the spring, and stock markets nearly entered a bear market in April.

In May, the parties agreed to a ceasefire to negotiate a new trade agreement, and both China and the USA significantly reduced tariffs. In June, a framework agreement was concluded in which China committed to continue giving the green light for export of rare earth metals to the USA.

But the peace was fragile. In October 2025, China announced the strictest export controls on rare earth metals and permanent magnets to date – and the ongoing trade war transformed into something entirely different.

China’s new weapon

For the first time, China applied the so-called “foreign direct product rule” (FDPR) – a mechanism that the USA has long used to restrict semiconductor exports to China. Now China is turning the tables.

“Under the new regime, any product containing ≥0.1% Chinese rare earths or magnet material now requires a Chinese export license, even if it’s made abroad. In other words: if your phone, drone, or fighter jet includes Chinese-origin materials anywhere in its supply chain, Beijing gets a veto,” comments Mario Nawfal.

“This isn’t about dirt or ore – it’s about control of the midstream, where minerals become tech. The move turns rare earths into a geopolitical weapon”, he continues.

China doesn’t just control the mines, but the entire value chain from raw materials to finished products. And now that power is being used as a weapon.

AI and the defense industry in the crosshairs

The two biggest losers are expected to be the AI industry and the military-industrial complex. China’s new export controls stipulate that materials used for chip production below the 14 nanometer node must seek approval from China.

The nanometer node is a measure of how small the transistors in a chip are – the lower the number, the more advanced and powerful the technology, and modern AI and advanced military technology require chips below 14nm.

Even products with dual-use applications – that is, technology that can be used both civilly and militarily – must be approved. Beijing will decide each case individually.

This creates a potential bottleneck for the entire advanced chip supply chain. TSMC, the world’s largest contract manufacturer of semiconductors, is already prohibited from manufacturing chips below the 14nm node for China at the USA’s request.

Now China is reversing the logic: if we can’t get your most advanced chips anyway, maybe the world doesn’t need them either. China’s own chip manufacturer SMIC can produce equivalent 7nm to 5nm chips.

The stock market reaction showed which sectors are hit hardest. The technology and green energy sectors, both of which are heavily dependent on rare earth metals such as neodymium and dysprosium, bore the heaviest burden.

Nvidia fell by nearly 5 percent, AMD by 7.7 percent, and Tesla dropped over 5 percent. Chinese tech giants were hit even harder – Alibaba fell by 10 percent, Baidu over 8 percent, and JD.com by more than 6 percent.

USA’s desperate countermoves

Trump administration’s top officials have convened executives from technology and rare earth companies in an intensive effort to accelerate the development of the entire supply chain for domestic production.

“The Pentagon launched a $1 billion buying spree to stockpile cobalt, antimony, scandium, and other critical minerals – a modern version of Cold War hoarding”, states Nawfal.

In July 2025, the Department of Defense (recently renamed the Department of War) invested $400 million in equity in MP Materials, making the US government the company’s largest shareholder. The deal also includes a 10-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for the company’s NdPr products.

But reality is brutal: even when these facilities are fully operational, MP Materials will only produce 1,000 tons of neodymium-boron-iron magnets by the end of 2025 – less than 1 percent of the 138,000 tons that China produces.

American officials have acknowledged that the overall effort will still take time and therefore leave the country and its allies vulnerable to Xi’s strategic whims in the short term.

“But time is China’s ally. The U.S. can’t build refining and magnet plants overnight, and global alternatives (Australia, Brazil, India) remain in early stages”, argues Mario Nawfal further.

A new geopolitical reality

A former White House advisor warned that China’s strict controls on rare earth metals represent “the power to forbid any country on Earth from participating in the modern economy”.

The market reaction reveals something fundamentally new: the divergence between the dollar and gold shows that markets are now trading tariffs as if they’re striking back against the USA, not against the rest of the world.

During previous crises, the dollar has strengthened as a safe haven – now it’s falling instead.

The trade wars are an expression of a deeper power struggle between the USA and China that has the potential to shake the world economy and create a new international order.

Mario Nawfal summarizes: “Beijing’s goal isn’t total collapse – it’s pressure through precision. By tightening supply just enough to make the West sweat, China gains leverage”.

What happens now?

Trump threatened to cancel his planned meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea on October 31-November 1, although he later clarified that he had not completely cancelled the meeting but was uncertain whether it would take place.

Both Trump and Xi Jinping under no circumstances want to appear weak, which especially applies to Xi Jinping and the Communist Party, which bases its power position on having made China strong and standing up to Western nations.

China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement: “China’s stance is consistent – we do not want a tariff war but we are not afraid of one”.

The 100% tariffs are set to take effect on November 1 – or earlier. The Pentagon is buying critical minerals in panic, allied countries are rushing to build alternative supply chains, and stock markets around the world are holding their breath.

Nawfal concludes his analysis with a grim prognosis: “This isn’t a tariff skirmish anymore – it’s a war over the atoms that make the modern world spin. Forget trade war. This is industrial warfare… and both sides are ready to bleed to win”.

The question is who can endure the pain the longest.

Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

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https://nordictimes.com/the-nordics/finland/finland-faces-multimillion-lawsuit-over-illegal-boarding-of-eagle-s/

Finland

Finland faces multimillion lawsuit over illegal boarding of Eagle S

The new cold war

Published 3 October 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The Eagle S was dramatically boarded on Christmas night 2024 – an action that the court has now determined lacked legal basis.
4 minute read
Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

Helsinki District Court rules that Finland lacked jurisdiction to prosecute the crew of oil tanker Eagle S.

Harsh criticism is now directed at authorities’ boarding of the vessel in international waters – an action that risks becoming very costly for Finnish taxpayers.

The ruling from Helsinki District Court is a heavy setback for Finnish authorities who dramatically boarded the oil tanker Eagle S in international waters last year. The district court establishes that Finland simply lacked the right to prosecute the crew for the alleged cable breaks.

Captain Davit Vadatchkoria and officers Robert Egizaryan and Santosh Kumar Chaurasia were charged with aggravated sabotage and aggravated disruption of postal and telecommunications traffic. The charges also included alternative, lesser criminal classifications: sabotage, aggravated vandalism and causing public danger.

But since the cable breaks – which involved five underwater cables – occurred outside Finland’s territorial waters, Finnish criminal law cannot be applied, the court states.

“International waters – period”

Lawyer Herman Ljungberg, who represents shipping company Caravella FZ LLC, has consistently argued that the action was illegal.

— The damage occurred in international waters, period. Therefore Finland has nothing to do with the matter. Only the flag state, in this case the Cook Islands, has jurisdiction, he tells Svenska Yle.

Ljungberg goes further and calls the incident an illegal hijacking.

— The boarding should absolutely be investigated. We already filed a police report about the boarding at an earlier stage, but it was left without investigation, he says.

District court refers to maritime law convention

In its ruling, the district court states that the incident was an accident and refers to articles in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The court does note that the act according to the charges had caused “exceptionally large” economic damage, but still establishes that a Finnish court cannot try the case.

The court’s conclusion underscores the inappropriateness of the authorities’ actions: They boarded a vessel in international waters, held it for over two months and brought charges – despite lacking jurisdiction.

Taxpayers will pay the bill

The direct cost of the failed legal process already amounts to €193,000 in legal costs that the Finnish state must reimburse the three acquitted defendants.

But that could be the beginning of a significantly more expensive bill. The shipping company is preparing extensive damage claims.

— It could involve damages of tens of millions of euros. The shipping company believes the Finnish state owes them money due to the illegal hijacking of the vessel, says Ljungberg.

He points to the cargo – primarily unleaded gasoline – allegedly being damaged during the months the vessel was held, as well as lost rental income while the ship stood idle outside Sköldvik, Finland.

“Shadow fleet” – a loaded term without clear definition

The case has been characterized by strong words and dramatic headlines. When the EU introduced new sanctions in May 2025 against what is called “the Russian shadow fleet,” Eagle S was placed on a list of so-called shadow vessels.

The term “shadow vessel” or “shadow fleet” is used by politicians and in media, but there is no unified, official definition of what is meant. The concept generally seems to refer to older vessels with complicated ownership structures that transport Russian oil, possibly to circumvent international sanctions.

That a vessel appears on the EU’s sanctions list does not, however, affect the question of jurisdiction. In the Eagle S case, the court establishes that Finland lacked the right to prosecute the crew, regardless of the vessel’s status as a listed shadow ship.

What happens now?

The prosecutors, represented by Deputy Prosecutor General Jukka Rappe, have not yet commented on the ruling. Rappe has previously unsuccessfully tried to justify why Finland should have jurisdiction:

— In this case, the cable capacity has been so large that in my opinion it is clear that data communication and the electrical system have been affected in Finland. Therefore the act is considered to have been performed in Finland even though the location where the cables were cut lies outside Finnish borders, Rappe told Svenska Yle in August.

Now prosecutors face the choice of appealing to the Court of Appeal or accepting defeat.

It is also possible that the Cook Islands, as flag state for Eagle S, chooses to take over the investigation – if they would even consider there is a case to investigate.

For the three crew members, who spent months in Finland with travel bans and obligations to report to police weekly, the matter is now over. But for the Finnish state and taxpayers, the consequences of the hasty boarding could prove far more costly than those responsible originally imagined.

Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

https://nordictimes.com/world/norwegian-led-training-base-for-ukrainian-soldiers-opened-in-poland/

World

Norwegian-led training base for Ukrainian soldiers opened in Poland

The new cold war

Published 2 October 2025
– By Editorial Staff
EU representatives visit Camp Jomsborg during the opening ceremony.
2 minute read
Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

A Norwegian-led training center for Ukrainian troops has opened in southeastern Poland. Camp Jomsborg can accommodate up to 1,200 soldiers at a time and will focus on drone warfare.

The facility in Nowa Dęba-Lipa was inaugurated on Wednesday in the presence of defense ministers from Norway and Estonia, as well as representatives from Lithuania, Latvia, Sweden, Finland, Iceland and Denmark.

Camp Jomsborg, built by engineers from Norway’s Brigade Nord, represents another escalation of Western support for Ukraine since the war with Russia broke out in 2022. Poland has since become a central hub for logistics and training of Ukrainian forces.

According to Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the training will be conducted by instructors from allied NATO countries, with particular focus on modern drone technology.

— There is no other army in the world as well trained in drones and counter-drone systems as Ukraine’s, he claimed at the inauguration ceremony.

Around 250 Norwegian soldiers are already stationed at the site, and five rotations of 500 troops each are planned for next year. Estonia has also sent personnel, and more nations are expected to follow.

“Not a one-way street”

Kosiniak-Kamysz argued that the cooperation not only benefits Ukraine, but that the allied countries also benefit from Ukrainian combat experience.

— This is not a one-way street. An important element is that we will draw on Ukrainian experience. Right next to us is a drone launch strip, the defense minister said.

He emphasized that the base symbolizes NATO countries’ unity and claimed that “peace requires strength, skill, training, a well-prepared army, a strong alliance and resilient societies”.

On the same day as the inauguration, EU leaders agreed to create a so-called “drone wall” along the bloc’s eastern flank, following claims from Poland and Estonia about Russian airspace violations. Moscow has dismissed the accusations as groundless and accused the EU of trying to incite a war against Russia.

Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

https://nordictimes.com/europe/hungary-brussels-prepares-for-war-and-europeans-will-pay-the-price/

Europe

Hungary: Brussels prepares for war – and Europeans will pay the price

The new cold war

Published 2 October 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó sounds the alarm: EU leadership under Ursula von der Leyen is sacrificing Europe for Ukraine.
2 minute read
Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

“Brussels is preparing for war and they want Europeans to pay the price”, writes Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó in a harsh attack against the EU’s new seven-year budget.

He warns that the union’s power holders are prioritizing Ukraine’s military over Europe’s own and very urgent problems.

In the post, published ahead of the informal EU summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, Szijjártó emphasized that Europe’s security and economic situation has deteriorated sharply as a result of failed decisions in Brussels.

“Brussels is preparing for war, and they want Europeans, including Hungarians, to pay the price. The proposed budget for the next seven years is much more about Ukraine than about the European Union itself”, wrote Szijjártó.

He described the draft as “a Ukraine budget”, focused on arming the country and keeping its state structure alive, while Europe’s own urgent needs are neglected. Instead, Brussels should address declining competitiveness, secure energy supply, and rebuild the foundations for European growth, he argued.

“But instead, the European Commission wants to send European taxpayers’ money – including Hungarians’ money – to Ukraine, to finance the Ukrainian state and military”, the minister warned.

Wants to see “patriotic shift”

Szijjártó emphasized that Hungary rejects the idea that the country’s citizens’ money should be used for war efforts.

“We don’t want Hungarian taxpayers’ money to be sent to Ukraine, we don’t want it to be spent on war, and we don’t want it to cover the arming and operation of the Ukrainian military”, Szijjártó explained further.

The minister concluded by stating that the EU can only change course if a “patriotic shift” occurs in Brussels.

“Until then, Brussels will remain committed to pro-war, pro-migration, and pro-gender policies. But we don’t want war, we don’t want migration, we don’t want gender madness, and we don’t want Hungarians’ money to be siphoned off to Ukraine”, he wrote.

The day before Szijjártó’s statement, on September 30, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán directed harsh criticism at Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in a post on X.

“Dear Donald Tusk, You may think that you are at war with Russia, but Hungary is not. Neither is the European Union. You are playing a dangerous game with the lives and security of millions of Europeans. This is very bad!” Orbán emphasized.

Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

https://nordictimes.com/world/stoltenbergs-call-sacrifice-welfare-to-stop-putin/

World

Stoltenberg’s call: Sacrifice welfare to stop Putin

The war in Ukraine

Published 1 October 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Jens Stoltenberg meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
2 minute read
Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

Norway’s finance minister and former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says that Western Europe must continue sending billions to Ukraine – even if this comes at the expense of citizens’ healthcare and welfare.

— I know that one additional billion to Ukraine or one billion extra to national defense is one billion less to other good purposes like health, education and infrastructure. But we must remember that the highest cost is to let Putin win, said Stoltenberg during the conference Warsaw Security Forum on Tuesday.

Stoltenberg, who led the US-led military alliance from 2014 to 2024, is now Norway’s finance minister and during the forum he revealed that Norway under his leadership has tripled military support to Ukraine and significantly increased its own defense spending.

His statements align with the military alliance’s current Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has previously urged member countries to cut welfare in order to increase support to Kiev further.

Stoltenberg was NATO chief when the Ukraine conflict escalated into a full-scale war in February 2022. Even before the invasion, he had pushed for Ukrainian NATO membership and NATO-adapted infrastructure in the country – measures that according to Russia provoked the war.

“Starting to talk about a third world war”

After the 2022 invasion, Stoltenberg intensified demands that Ukraine should be admitted to the alliance and urged member countries to increase their military and financial support to the country.

Several Western European governments have dramatically increased their military spending over the past year, citing the alleged threat from Russia. At the same time, many European countries are struggling with strained welfare systems and demands for savings at home.

Moscow categorically denies plans to attack NATO or EU countries and claims that these allegations are used as a pretext to justify military investments at the expense of welfare.

— Some officials in NATO and the EU are beginning to seriously talk about a third world war as a potential scenario, warns Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, accusing the West of fueling anti-Russian hysteria.

Editorial Staff
editorial@nordictimes.com

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