Less but more expensive. That sums up the green movement’s program and proposals for the future. It means a shrinking market in a growing world.
When it comes to transportation, we should travel shorter distances, less often, preferably by electric vehicle, and even better by bicycle or on foot. We should take fewer and shorter vacations and fly less.
We should eat less meat (especially red meat) and more vegetables. We should save our clothes and throw away less food, repair and reuse things, and generally consume less. We should also own less, live in smaller homes, and heat our homes less.
Of course it is wise not to waste, but this program is not going to win any elections. Especially since it is exaggerated and mostly unnecessary. It sets the world’s development back and leaves fewer resources for urgent needs.
The program is outlined in activist Greta Thunberg’s 442-page book “The Climate Book”. In it, 102 selected debaters give their views on the climate issue with proposals for various measures.
They are mostly political scientists, behavioral scientists, economists, and lawyers, all of whom start from the premise that more carbon dioxide could dangerously warm the Earth. Few are natural scientists with knowledge of physics, chemistry, geology, oceanography, solar research, and other subjects important to the climate.
For vehicles and transport, higher costs threaten to bring fewer benefits. More biofuels are to be mixed into gasoline and diesel (reduction obligation). They are more expensive, contain less energy, can damage sensitive engine parts, and are also in short supply due to competition from other needs.
From 2035, no new combustion-powered cars will be sold, and higher taxes and more expensive fuel will phase out even used fuel cars in the years that follow. In return, electric cars will continue to be subsidized with the goal that all Swedish cars will be electric by around 2050.
At least according to The Climate Book. This applies not only to cars but to all road vehicles, including motorcycles, tractors, trucks, buses, and construction machinery. Six to seven million vehicles will then need 25-30 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity per year.
This is 15-20 percent more than Sweden’s electricity consumption (approx. 140 TWh) and will have to compete with grandiose industrial projects – which are unlikely to be realized.
The catch is not electric motors, but their batteries. These require increasingly rare, expensive, and often environmentally harmful materials, which compete with other more pressing needs. This makes all electric vehicles more expensive than their fuel-powered counterparts.
If a new gasoline-powered small car costs €25,000-€30,000, the equivalent electric car costs €30,000-€40,000. A mid-size gasoline car costing €35,000–€40,000 is matched by an electric car costing at least €50,000. Cheaper electricity is more than offset by greater depreciation.
To preserve the batteries, you should neither drive with an empty battery nor charge it fully. This means that only around 80 percent of the capacity is available. In Swedish traffic, electric cars consume 1.5-3 kWh per 10 km, depending on size, load, weather, and speed. The actual range is a maximum of 300-400 kilometers.
Larger electric cars can cost upwards of €100,000. Today’s car journalists are dazzled by new technology and see the prices as perfectly normal. But ordinary Swedish households do not. That’s why two out of three new cars are bought or leased by companies, driven by taxes and subsidies.
This also applies to light transport and trucks. But buses and heavier trucks consume 12-15 kWh per 10 km. Even just 100 km requires at least a 120-150 kWh battery (one ton). Longer distances require several tons.
This reduces their payload capacity and revenue and requires long and expensive charging times. A regular bus costs around €300,000, an electric bus twice as much. A larger truck without a load weighs 5-6 tons. For 10,000 km, it needs a 1,200-1,500 kWh battery. That would weigh 8-10 tons, cost €150,000-€200,000, and significantly reduce load capacity.
Which transport companies would accept that? That is why Scania and Volvo only sell 1-2 percent electric trucks.
Tege Tornvall
