Thursday, August 28, 2025

Polaris of Enlightenment

Would Israel take the world with it in its demise?

The escalation in the Middle East

The Israeli nuclear arsenal and the so-called "Samson option" have become increasingly discussed in the context of the escalating situation in the Middle East.

Published 15 June 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Will nuclear weapons be used as large-scale retaliation if Israel is threatened?
6 minute read

In 1986, Israel’s nuclear weapons program was revealed – although to this day the country’s authorities have refused to acknowledge that it possesses any weapons of mass destruction. Israel’s nuclear arsenal has even been called “the world’s worst-kept secret” and, with French help, began to be developed in great secrecy as early as the 1950s.

Israeli nuclear engineer Mordechai Vanunu was the one who exposed the program in the British press, before he was kidnapped by the Mossad intelligence service, brought back to Israel and spent the next 18 years in an Israeli prison. To this day, Vanunu is banned from leaving the country and has also been sentenced to several short prison terms for “forbidden speech” related to the nuclear weapons program.


This article was originally published on March 18, 2025.


It is difficult to say with certainty how many nuclear weapons Israel actually has. In 2008, former US President Jimmy Carter speculated that at the time there were at least 150 warheads “or more”.

Samson and the Philistines

Closely related to the Israeli nuclear doctrine is the so-called “Samson option” – which refers to Israel’s strategy of retaliation in the event of a major attack on its own country, or in a situation where the very existence of the nation is deemed to be under threat.

The name is taken from the biblical character Samson, who, blinded and captured by the Philistines, finally managed to tear apart the pillars of the temple in which he was held captive – whereupon the roof collapsed, killing not only him, but also thousands of the Philistines who had tormented him.

Samson destroys the Philistine temple. Painting: Giovanni Benedetto Castiglione.

The Samson option, according to many analysts, is something like this – that Israel would respond with large-scale nuclear attacks if its existence were threatened or if, for example, Jerusalem were bombed to pieces.

Threatening Nixon with nuclear weapons

As early as 1967, during the Six-Day War, Israel planned to detonate a nuclear device on a mountain in the Sinai Desert to warn the surrounding Arab states in the area. However, this never materialized, as Israel was able to defeat its opponents through conventional warfare.

During the Yom Kippur War in 1973, it was time again when the then Prime Minister Golda Meir chose to blackmail the US and President Nixon by preparing and threatening to use nuclear weapons against his enemies – unless the US immediately delivered war material and assistance of various kinds. Again, no nuclear bombs were detonated – according to analysts, simply because Nixon agreed to the demands.

Richard Nixon and Golda Meir. Montage. Photo: Willem van de Poll/Nationaal Archief/CC BY-SA 4.0

According to award-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, during the 1970s, Israel considered the Soviet Union as the main threat, and a number of nuclear warheads were also aimed at Soviet cities – while the Soviets had several Israeli cities on their list of potential nuclear targets.

Hersh argues that the nuclear doctrine changed when right-wing leader Menachem Begin took power in 1977, and that an ambition emerged not only to acquire a large number of nuclear weapons to respond to a possible attack, but also with the aim to “use Israeli might to redraw the political map of the Middle East”.

“The power to destroy the world”

After all, the most commonly held view is that the purpose of the so-called Samson option is to destroy or annihilate states that attack Israel. However, others go further and argue that it is instead about “taking revenge on the world” and that Israel, if it perceives an existential threat, wants to cause as much damage and devastation as possible even to countries not directly involved in the attack against them. For example, Jewish professor David Perlmutter of Louisiana State University expressed such a view in the LA Times in 2002.

Israel has been building nuclear weapons for 30 years. The Jews understand what passive and powerless acceptance of doom has meant for them in the past, and they have ensured against it. Masada was not an example to follow – it hurt the Romans not a whit, but Samson in Gaza? What would serve the Jew-hating world better in repayment for thousands of years of massacres but a Nuclear Winter. Or invite all those tut-tutting European statesmen and peace activists to join us in the ovens?” wrote Perlmutter.

For the first time in history, a people facing extermination while the world either cackles or looks away – unlike the Armenians, Tibetans, World War II European Jews or Rwandans – have the power to destroy the world. The ultimate justice?” Perlmutter asked himself further.

“Destroying the pillars of the world”

Jewish writer and journalist Ron Rosenbaum also argues that Israel, in the “aftermath of a second Holocaust”, could not only attack its aggressors but also “bring down the pillars of the world (attack Moscow and European capitals for instance)” on the grounds that anti-Semitism associated with past persecutions in history must be avenged. Even “the holy places of Islam” could be attacked with nuclear weapons in such a situation, according to Rosenbaum, who emphasizes that “abandonment of proportionality is the essence” of the Samson option.

Israeli military historian Martin van Creveld takes a similar line. In the context of the second intifada, he said that Israel had “hundreds of nuclear weapons” – and that these could also be aimed at European capitals, which he said were in the line of fire of the Israeli military.

We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: ‘Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother'”.

I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under”, Mr. van Creveld further declared.

Moshe Dayan (former Minister of Defense and Foreign Affairs) said that Israel must act “like a mad dog”. Photo: National Library of Israel/ CC BY 4.0

Jerusalem Post journalist Gil Ronen has also described the Samson option as a way for Israel to annihilate its enemies and “possibly causing irreparable damage to the entire world” in a situation where “Israel faces annihilation”.

Unwavering support from the West?

Since Israeli officials will not even acknowledge that they have nuclear weapons – or how many, it is of course impossible at this stage for the country’s leaders to be clear about their strategy with regard to them. Furthermore, it is of course unlikely that Israel – or any other country for that matter – would admit that it intends to “take the world with it if it falls” – even if that were the case. This is rarely the case, although Russian President Vladimir Putin, for example, admitted during Oliver Stone’s visit to Moscow that he believes a nuclear war between Russia and the United States “would probably have no winners”.

What the Samson option actually means in a “worst case scenario” will be the subject of further discussion – not least as the situation across the Middle East continues to become increasingly risky and escalatory, with Israel now attacking Iranian targets (and vice versa).

Western support for Israel seems unwavering – despite the tens of thousands of civilian deaths in Gaza and alerts from human rights organizations about violations of international law. Can this be explained by historical loyalty to Israel alone? Or is there possibly also a fear somewhere in the picture, a fear that, to quote Moshe Dayan, the country’s political leadership would actually act “like a mad dog” if left to its own devices?

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Swedish crisis preparedness brochure gains unexpected traction among worried Iranians

The escalation in the Middle East

Published today 10:26
– By Editorial Staff
MSB's brochure is available in a range of languages beyond Swedish – including Persian, Arabic, and Somali.
2 minute read

The Swedish information brochure “If Crisis or War Comes”, produced by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) in connection with the war in Ukraine in 2022, has gained unexpected distribution in Iran.

The Persian-language web magazine Stockholmian reports that the brochure’s Persian translation is now circulating widely on social media in the country.

The brochure, which was distributed to all Swedish households, contains various practical advice on crisis preparedness, such as storing food and water, following reliable news sources and seeking shelter during crises or conflicts.

Since Sweden has had extensive mass immigration in recent decades, the brochure was also translated into several languages – including Persian. And now the Persian version of the MSB brochure is reportedly gaining unexpectedly wide distribution even among the population back home in Iran.

“What’s interesting is that the Persian version of the brochure is now circulating widely on social media in Iran. Many Iranians, who are worried about the political and security developments in the region, have started spreading and reading this Swedish crisis guide as a concrete and useful tool”, writes the web magazine.

“The Swedish state has thought more about us than our own government”, claims one user, highlighting the brochure as an example of how a state should act to take responsibility for its citizens.

“A source of inspiration”

Despite the advice in the brochure being adapted for Swedish conditions, many of them are perceived as universal and relevant even in other countries in other parts of the world.

“In a time where uncertainty and threats of war have characterized many people’s everyday lives, Sweden’s model for information and preparedness can become a source of inspiration – even for countries like Iran”, Stockholmian concludes.

Although MSB’s brochure has been praised in many quarters, it has also been questioned and met with harsh criticism – not least for its explicit “doomsday rhetoric” where Swedes are urged to prepare themselves for upcoming terrorist attacks, aerial bombings and nuclear war.

In a country like Iran where bombs and war were actually bitter reality quite recently and are still a very concrete threat, however, the alarmist rhetoric is not perceived as equally remarkable.

Analyst: Israel preparing new war against Iran

The escalation in the Middle East

Published 21 August 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The question is whether Donald Trump will keep the United States out of a new Israeli war against Iran.
4 minute read

Swedish-Iranian Middle East expert Trita Parsi assesses that Israel will likely initiate a new war against Iran before December – perhaps as early as the end of August. The next conflict will likely be significantly bloodier than the previous one, he warns.

Israel is determined not to give Iran time to rebuild its military capacity after the June war, according to Trita Parsi, well-known Iran expert and author. In a new analysis, he warns that an attack could come within the next few months.

“Israel is likely to launch another war with Iran before December – perhaps even as early as late August”, writes Parsi.

Iran is already preparing for the attack. According to the analyst, the country played a long-term game during the first war and measured its missile attacks while waiting for a prolonged conflict. Next time, Iran is expected to strike hard from the beginning.

Large-scale war

Parsi assesses that the coming conflict will be significantly more devastating than the June war. If US President Donald Trump again gives in to Israeli pressure and joins the fight, the US could face an extensive war with Iran.

“United States could face a full-blown war with Iran that will make Iraq look easy by comparison”, warns the Iran expert.

According to his analysis, Israel’s June war was never solely about Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The goal was rather to shift the balance of power in the Middle East, where Iranian nuclear capabilities were indeed an important but not decisive factor.

Failed with main objectives

Israel had three main objectives with its attacks in June, according to Parsi: to draw the US into direct military conflict with Iran, to overthrow the Iranian regime, and to transform the country into the next Syria or Lebanon – countries that Israel can bomb without American support.

He notes that only one of these objectives was achieved. Despite early intelligence successes – such as killing 30 high commanders and 19 nuclear scientists – Israel only managed to temporarily disrupt Iran’s command structure.

“Within 18 hours, Iran had replaced most if not all of these commanders and launched a heavy missile barrage, demonstrating its ability to absorb significant losses and still mount a fierce counterattack”, writes Parsi.

Threatened to kill generals’ families

According to the Washington Post, Mossad agents, speaking fluent Persian, called high Iranian officials on their mobile phones and threatened to kill them and their families if they did not record videos condemning the regime and defecting publicly. More than 20 such calls were made during the war’s first hours.

“Yet there’s no evidence a single Iranian general capitulated to the threats, and the regime’s cohesion remained intact”, notes the Iran expert.

Contrary to Israel’s expectations, the attacks did not lead to mass protests or uprisings against the Islamic Republic. Instead, Iranians of all political colors rallied behind the flag, though not necessarily behind the regime itself.

Parsi quotes an artist in Tehran, Iran who told researcher Narges Bajoghli at Johns Hopkins University:

“I used to be one of those who would chant during protests to not send Iranian money to Lebanon or Palestine. But now I understand that the bombs we all face are one and if we don’t have strong defenses across the region, the war comes to us”.

Israel signals new offensive

Both Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and military chief Eyal Zamir have signaled that a new offensive is likely. The June war was just the first phase, according to Zamir, who added that Israel is now “entering a new chapter” of the conflict.

The Middle East analyst explains that Israel is determined not to give Iran time to replenish its missile arsenal, restore air defenses, or install improved systems. This is central to Israel’s “mowing the grass” strategy: to strike preemptively and repeatedly to prevent opponents from developing capabilities that could challenge Israeli military dominance.

To deter further attacks, Iran is expected to strike hard and fast from the beginning of the next war. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned on X:

“If aggression is repeated, we will not hesitate to react in a more decisive manner and in a way that will be IMPOSSIBLE to cover up”.

The Iran expert assesses that the cost for Israel must become overwhelming, otherwise the country will gradually erode Iran’s missile capacity and leave the country defenseless.

Trump’s role becomes decisive

Trump’s response to a second Israeli war with Iran could be decisive, according to Parsi. The president seems unwilling to engage in a prolonged conflict – the 12-day war exposed critical shortages in US missile stockpiles.

“By green-lighting the opening salvo, Trump has walked into Israel’s trap – and it’s unclear whether he can find a way out”.

Limited involvement is probably no longer an option. Trump will either need to go all in on the war or stay out completely. And staying out requires more than a one-time refusal – it requires sustained resistance to Israeli pressure, something he has so far not shown either the will or strength to manage, concludes Trita Parsi in his analysis.

Trita Parsi is an Iranian-Swedish author and one of the most prominent experts on Iran and Middle Eastern politics. He is executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington-based think tank that advocates for diplomatic solutions and generally opposes military interventions. He previously founded the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).

Parsi holds a doctorate in international relations and has written several acclaimed books about the relationship between the US, Israel and Iran. His analyses are regularly published in leading newspapers such as the New York Times and Foreign Affairs, and he is frequently consulted as an expert by international media outlets including CNN, BBC and Al Jazeera.

Parsi's focus on dialogue and diplomacy has also led to harsh criticism from pro-Israeli groups and parts of the shah-friendly Iranian opposition, who believe that Parsi is too soft on Tehran and have accused him of being a regime-friendly lobbyist.

Israel launches new attack on Syria

The escalation in the Middle East

Published 17 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Israel bombs Syrian military government buildings to support the Druze minority in the country, officials explain.
1 minute read

Less than a week after the attack on neighboring Lebanon, Israel is now also launching a new attack on neighboring Syria, according to Times of Israel among many other media outlets. During the afternoon, they bombed the government’s military headquarters in the capital Damascus, and there are also reports that bombs struck near the presidential palace.

According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, several people are reported to have died and been injured in the attacks.

The Israeli military justifies the attacks by claiming they are supporting the Druze religious minority in Syria, which in recent days has been engaged in armed conflict with state forces in southern Syria.

Islamist rule

Syria is currently ruled by Salafists from the group HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), a breakaway faction from the terrorist movement Al-Qaeda. They were also officially designated as such by the US, which nonetheless worked for many years to help them overthrow the secular socialist president Bashar Al-Assad, who fell around Christmas last year after more than 13 years of civil war.

Both Israel and the US initially positioned themselves as officially positive toward the change of power in Syria.

Read more about the Salafists who rule Syria

Nya Dagbladet (Swedish news outlet) has previously highlighted the new Syrian government in an analysis article that you can read here.

Israel’s latest attack: Ground troops in Lebanon

The escalation in the Middle East

Published 10 July 2025
– By Editorial Staff
2 minute read

Israel has conducted almost daily attacks against targets in southern Lebanon and also against the capital Beirut since the ceasefire was concluded in November 2024 between Israel and Hezbollah. During the night, they have also deployed ground troops in the neighboring country.

As recently as Tuesday, Israel fired on a vehicle in the Lebanese city of Tripoli in an attack that killed three people and injured 13 according to Lebanon’s health ministry. According to Israel, a Hamas officer was killed in the attack.

During last night, Israel also deployed ground troops in the neighboring country in what is described as a “special operation”. The Israeli military IDF communicates this in a press release and a statement on Telegram as reported by, among others, the Qatari channel Al-Jazeera. They also show a video of soldiers in the operation.

 

 

Despite the agreed ceasefire, Israel has justified continued attacks in Lebanon by claiming that the paramilitary Shia Muslim political party Hezbollah, which is part of the country’s complex coalition government together with Christian, Druze and socialist politicians, continues to pose a threat and that the Lebanese state has not fulfilled its commitments under the agreement.

Lebanon has for its part condemned the attacks as flagrant violations of the ceasefire and has also requested help from the UN Security Council to get Israel to cease the attacks. Lebanese President Nawaf Salam has repeatedly also addressed the US and Israel directly to get the Netanyahu government to refrain from further attacks.

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