The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) reiterates the message that “everyone must contribute” to Ukraine’s defense, urging “understimulated retirees, procrastinating students, and breastfeeding mothers” to get involved in predicting the war’s future through the platform Glimt.
The project, carried out together with Ukrainian authorities, is based on the thesis that the guesses and assessments of a large number of people often outperform experts’ forecasts – and that this should be used to achieve success in the war against Russia.
Commissioned by the Swedish government, the FOI launched the “Glimt” project earlier this year as part of Sweden’s already extensive support for Ukraine.
“It is a digital platform where people from all over the world have the opportunity to contribute to the Ukrainian defense effort. The aim is to help Ukrainian authorities with decision support both in the short and long term“, FOI states.
The Swedish taxpayer-funded project is described as “an open platform that gives people from all over the world the opportunity to contribute in a concrete way to the fight for Ukraine’s freedom“.
Users who sign up are asked to answer various questions about future events and estimate their likelihood – for example, how many missile attacks will occur in April, whether Russia will mobilize before May, or how long a potential ceasefire will last.
Information for strategic planning
Most Swedes who answer these questions have no detailed knowledge of the war – but FOI nevertheless claims that crowd forecasting is a tried and tested method for making predictions about everything from political developments to economic trends.
“By collecting and weighting assessments from a large group of participants, the forecasts become accurate, especially over time. Participants who are particularly precise in their assessments are weighted more heavily. In this way, the platform is continuously optimized and the accuracy of the collective projections increases“, it says.
It is also claimed that the guesses and assessments generated by crowd forecasting can in many cases outperform those of individual experts.
“The forecasts can help Ukraine adapt to the outside world and thereby achieve greater success in defending against Russian aggression. The assessments generated by Glimt can be used to inform Ukrainian strategic planning”, FOI continues.
“Our new weapon”
The Swedish government has previously declared that support to Ukraine remains a top priority – and Glimt, which is part of Sweden’s 16th aid package to Ukraine, is presented by the Swedish agency as “our new weapon in the fight for Ukraine’s freedom“.
“Now, FOI is looking for understimulated retirees, procrastinating students, and breastfeeding mothers to be part of the support for Ukraine“, declares FOI in its marketing, stating that previous experience or specific knowledge does not matter.
“The threats and challenges are real. And we must all find ways to contribute. To Ukraine’s survival, but also to our own future and security“, it adds.
