The United States is considering the imminent delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine, a move that could change the strategic dynamics of the conflict. According to Reuters, the decision itself is imminent, but if it goes through, it will be several months before the delivery can take place.

The Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) are expected to be included in the arms package that the US is expected to announce later this fall. However, sources speaking to Reuters say the decision is not yet final.

Officials in Washington have previously expressed concerns about supplying JASSM missiles to Ukraine, saying they could have a significant impact on the conflict. In particular, the fact that much of Russia’s territory would then be within range of these precision-guided weapons has so far given the Biden administration pause.

Military analysts say the JASSM missiles, which are difficult to detect and have a longer range than many of Ukraine’s current weapons, could force Russian forces to move their concentration areas and supply depots far from the front lines.

Update: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on possible US supplies of long-range missiles to Ukraine: ‘Our red lines should not be messed with, Washington knows what they are!’

According to Reuters, the US has reached an agreement on providing Ukraine with long-range JASSM… pic.twitter.com/mzej9pjeG7

— US Civil Defense News (@CaptCoronado) September 4, 2024

Voronezh, Bryansk and Crimea

If launched from sites near Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders with Russia, the missiles would allow attacks on military targets in cities as far away as Voronezh and Bryansk. In the south, they could be used to strike airfields or naval facilities on the Crimean Peninsula and over much of the Black Sea.

For the time being, JASSM missiles are only being installed on U.S.-designed aircraft. However, Ukraine will soon have a number of F-16s capable of carrying up to two such missiles each.

It has been reported that efforts are underway to make the missiles compatible with Ukraine’s current Soviet-designed aircraft, such as the MiG-29 and Su-27, but no details about which aircraft have been made public.

With increasing pressure from Russian forces along much of the front, where the Russian army has made apparent advances in recent weeks – including, according to several sources, being within a few miles of the strategic city of Pokrovsk – Ukraine’s need for more powerful weapons is greater than ever.

#UkraineRussiaWar
* Also today there were again many air strikes on Ukrainian territory with hypersonic missiles and cruise missiles. In particular, targets in Lviv, Kryvi Rog and Sumy Oblast were targeted.
* Frontline activity today is lower than usual, which indicates a… pic.twitter.com/axCuOmmv7O

— Military Summary (@MilitarySummary) September 4, 2024

“Increase pressure”

Delivering JASSM missiles to Ukraine “would increase pressure on Washington to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons, since their effectiveness would be limited if they could not be used against targets in Russia,” according to an anonymous congressional staffer working on the issue.

It is worth noting that the Biden administration has in the past been explicitly reluctant to provide weapons capable of hitting targets deep inside Russia for fear of further escalating the conflict.

Older models of the JASSM, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, have a range of about 370 km and are designed to be difficult to detect on radar. There is also a version with a range of over 750 km, but it is not yet clear what type of missile will be delivered.