Wednesday, January 22, 2025

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Switzerland may abandon neutrality – after 500 years

The new cold war

Published 3 September 2024
– By Editorial Staff
Schweiziska soldater.

After more than 500 years of strict neutrality, Switzerland may be facing a fundamental shift in its security policy. A recent report commissioned by the Swiss Ministry of Defense recommends that the country reconsider its principle of neutrality and consider closer cooperation with both the EU and NATO.

The proposals have provoked strong reactions both inside and outside Switzerland, forcing the nation, which has been a beacon of neutrality since 1515, to confront its historic role as a neutral state in an increasingly polarized political environment, Politico reports.

The report, released last Thursday, has already sparked considerable debate. The group of experts that wrote the report, consisting of diplomats, politicians and security experts, proposes over 100 measures to strengthen Switzerland’s security.

Among the most high-profile recommendations is a call to deepen cooperation with NATO and the EU to create a “common defense capability” and to increase the defense budget from 0.76% of GDP to 1% by 2030.

“Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, neutrality has once again become the subject of political debate, both at home and abroad. Pressure on Switzerland to clarify its position is growing”, the report says, calling for a “revision” of its neutrality policy.

The report’s conclusions are largely driven by the changing security situation in Europe, where the war in Ukraine has redrawn the geopolitical map. The report stresses that Switzerland, despite its neutrality, “can no longer remain isolated from the larger security structures in Europe”.

Strong criticism from all sides

However, the report was met with strong criticism. The opposition Swiss People’s Party (SVP) has openly condemned the proposals, accusing the expert group of being politically biased. In a statement, the party claims that the report shows a “lack of respect for our country’s constitutionally guaranteed perpetual … neutrality”.

The SVP also claims that Defense Minister Viola Amherd, who commissioned the report, deliberately appointed pro-NATO and pro-EU experts to pave the way for a change in security policy.

The current Swiss defense policy has also caused problems in relations with other European countries, especially in the area of arms exports.

Switzerland currently bans the sale of weapons to countries at war, which has led to several European countries being prevented from sending weapons with Swiss components to Ukraine.

The report recommends lifting this re-export ban to “facilitate international cooperation”, arguing that this is “necessary to strengthen the Swiss arms industry and gain access to EU and NATO procurement programs”.

Clear shift

The report’s findings reveal a clear shift in the security policy debate in Switzerland.

The country has been firmly anchored in the principle of neutrality for decades, and while the experts do not suggest a complete abandonment of neutrality, they clearly argue that Switzerland should move closer to Western security alliances through joint exercises and defense cooperation.

Jean-Marc Rickli, head of global and emerging risks at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, said in a statement that Switzerland should work with EU countries.

– There’s a reputational element of Switzerland potentially seen as a free rider who doesn’t cooperate with European states. If it wants to benefit from the help of its European partners, it has to give something back.

The report’s proposals are far from settled, however, and will certainly continue to face opposition from both the left and the right of the political spectrum. But the fact that Switzerland is now openly discussing such a change in its defense policy is in itself a remarkable situation.

The question of how Switzerland should relate to the EU and NATO in particular is likely to be central to the shaping of its security policy in the coming years.

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Swedish MEP wants to “defeat” the Kremlin

The new cold war

Published 16 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Emma Wiesner is one of many Swedish leaders who have recently started using increasingly aggressive rhetoric.

In a short period of time, the rhetoric of Swedish leaders has become increasingly belligerent and aggressive, while diplomacy and dialogue are rarely put forward as a viable option.

Emma Wiesner, MEP for the Center Party, is one of those accused of fueling the conflict, openly posting on social media about how “we” should “defeat” the Kremlin.

The fact that Swedish politicians’ attitude towards Russia has become even more hostile in recent months was made abundantly clear at Folk och Försvar’s national conference in Sälen this past weekend. At the conference, Ulf Kristersson declared that Sweden is certainly not currently at war but emphasized that “there is no peace either”.

The Swedish Minister of Defense, Pål Jonson, gave a similar message, declaring that supporting Kiev in the war was no longer a “choice”  but a “duty”.

– This is a war with profound global consequences that further weakens the rules-based world order… We must assume that Russia will pose a very serious threat to us and our allies for the foreseeable future, he said.

Emma Wiesner of the Center Party is one of those who has joined the war rhetoric and believes that the Russian leadership must be defeated.

It is completely unreasonable that Russian ships transporting Putin’s gas through the Arctic are given maintenance in EU ports. It is high time to extend sanctions to Russian LNG – we cannot defeat the Kremlin regime until we cut off the flow of money to the war chest”, she writes on X.

“Ukraine’s cause is ours”

However, it is not clear how and at what cost the Kremlin will be defeated or what role Sweden will play in this, and critics point out that sanctions against Russia have so far not produced the desired results.

You seem angry, but it won’t help you ‘defeat the regime in the Kremlin’, the only thing that can happen with your advice is that we dig ourselves even deeper into economic misery in Europe. But of course, as an MEP, you’re not exactly in the same boat as the rest of us”, commented one annoyed user.

Wiesner has previously declared that “Ukraine’s cause is ours” and that a Russian victory on the battlefield cannot be accepted under any circumstances as it would lead to a “fundamentally different Europe” than today.

Swedish Armed Forces unveil drone swarms: “Can be as many as needed”

The new cold war

Published 15 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The drones are described as "trucks" that can carry both weapons and cameras.

The Swedish Armed Forces have been working on a new drone project over the past year, under great secrecy, together with weapons manufacturer Saab, where large swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles will be used in military operations.

–They can be as many as needed – thousands, if desired, says Saab CEO Micael Johansson

The main focus has been on developing new software that is said to enable the drones to form swarms and perform tasks almost automatically, without any operator having to control each individual aircraft in detail.

It’s not about piloting drones, you give them a mission on an iPad or mobile phone, then the drone swarm goes out and does this, the Saab top executive told TT during a press conference, explaining that a soldier can learn the system in a few days.

A possible drone mission could be to monitor a road by flying over it and transmitting images or video from the site, while scouting for enemies that the drones can also identify. By using hundreds or thousands of drones, very large areas can be monitored in this way, and if a few drones are disrupted, this also has little impact.

Although this has not been part of the project so far, it is also possible that in the future the drones will be armed and used to attack enemy forces.

You can update this software and do amazing things in the long run, says Micael Johansson.

Should not make their own decisions

According to Army Chief of Staff Jonny Lindfors, the drones should be considered “trucks” and it is up to the decision-makers to decide what cargo they should carry.

– But the basic principle that still applies is that in an armed operation there should be a human being making the decisions, he says.

Swedish soldiers have already started training with the new system and it will also be used in the NATO exercise Arctic Strike in March. The Swedish Armed Forces are also in the process of acquiring tens of thousands of drones, but they won’t say how much the new system will cost.

Sweden’s Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M) is careful to point out, however, that a project of this kind usually takes about five years to complete and that it is “uniquely fast” that the software has been developed in just one year.

EU imports of Russian liquefied natural gas reach record levels

The new cold war

Published 14 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Russian LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie.

Despite EU sanctions and stated ambitions to sharply reduce imports of Russian fossil fuels, Europe still imported record amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2024.

According to experts, there is a logical reason for the increase Russian gas is simply much cheaper than its competitors.

Data from Rystad Energy shows that 17.8 million tons of Russian LNG were delivered to European ports last year, an increase of over 2 million tons compared to the previous year.

Despite a significant drop in piped gas imports from Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine and the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, the EU continued to purchase record amounts of the country’s LNG. This has been possible as the chilled fuel has been only partially covered by the sanctions imposed by Union member states.

The energy analyst firm released the data shortly after Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory to the EU. Kiev opted to scrap a five-year transit agreement with Russian energy giant Gazprom at the end of 2024, halting the flow of natural gas from Russia to Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy and Moldova.

Russian LNG deliveries to the EU not only increased but reached “record levels”, according to Jan-Eric Fahnrich, gas analyst at Rystad Energy. He states that Russia surpassed Qatar as the bloc’s second-largest supplier of LNG in 2024, after the United States.

According to Fahnrich, the EU bought 49.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas through pipelines last year, and another 24.2 billion cubic meters of LNG, some of which was re-exported to other countries.

“Fairly simple”

Data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) show slightly lower figures, but even these reflect an overall trend of sharply increasing Russian LNG exports. According to Crea, EU imports of Russian LNG increased by 14% year-on-year in 2024 to 17.5 million tons and were worth €7.32 billion.

– The reason for the rise is fairly simple. Russian LNG is offered at a discount to alternative suppliers. With no sanctions imposed on the commodity, companies are operating in their own self-interest and buying increasing quantities of gas from the cheapest supplier, explains Crea’s Russia analyst Vaibhav Raghunandan.

The latest estimates significantly outpace recent projections by Bloomberg, which earlier this week said LNG deliveries from Russia to the EU had risen to 15.5 million tons by 2024 compared to 2020, when the EU imported about 10.5 million tons of the fuel.

Trump plans meeting with Putin: “We are setting it up”

The new cold war

Published 13 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Putin and Trump during their meeting in Helsinki in 2018.

US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is now being arranged.

– He wants to meet, and we’re setting it up, Trump said at a meeting of Republican governors in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

Trump described the war in Ukraine as “a bloody mess ” and expressed his intention to end the conflict. During his election campaign, he promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, but has recently conceded that a six-month period is a more realistic timeframe.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also confirms that the Russian president’s line has been firmly established that he is open to talks with Trump and that there are no preconditions for such a meeting.

– The president has repeatedly stated his openness to contact with international leaders, including the U.S. president, including Donald Trump, said Peskov.

Trump’s planned meeting with Putin has raised concerns in Kiev, where there are fears that US military support could be reduced and Ukraine could be pushed into an unfavorable peace deal.