Russian forces are advancing rapidly in the Donbass, approaching strategically important Pokrovsk. At the same time, Russia claims that four US Patriot anti-aircraft systems have been destroyed, which could be a major blow to Ukraine’s defenses.

In response to the developments, Ukraine has carried out a reorganization in its military command to face the threat.

– Yelizavetivka, Veselyi Hai, Hannivka, Trudove and Uspenivka have fallen, sources reported over the weekend.

Kurakhove, south of the strategic logistics hub of Pokrovsk, is said to be about to fall. Russian forces are said to control 90% of the city’s civilian buildings.

Ukrainian counter-offensives from villages such as Pishchane have so far failed to halt the Russian advance. Russian forces have also raised their flag in Hannivka and taken control of the community of Pushkine, north of Pokrovsk.

At the same time, Russia is strengthening its positions on the Oskil River and expanding its bridgehead towards Dvorichna. These advances represent the fastest Russian advance since the start of the war in February 2022.

Due to reporting restrictions on both sides, it is difficult to verify the data from the Ukrainian battlefields.

#UkraineRussiaWar
* The defense in the direction of Uspenivka has completely collapsed. ⚠️ The Russians were able to bring several square kilometers under their control. There are also said to be Ukrainian soldiers still in the encirclement who have not managed to escape… pic.twitter.com/W3heWCcDiH

— Military Summary (@MilitarySummary) December 14, 2024

Pokrovsk – a frontline city

Russian forces are closing in on Pokrovsk, a strategically important city in eastern Ukraine. According to pro-Russian war bloggers, advanced special forces have already reached the city’s area, which is a major hub for both road and rail transportation, Reuters reports.

Pokrovsk, one of the country’s main suppliers of coke to Ukraine’s steel industry, still has around 11,000 civilians living under constant shelling. All critical infrastructure – electricity, water and gas – is destroyed, according to Ukrainian authorities.

Military analysts warn that a fall of Pokrovsk would be a significant setback for Kiev and potentially move the conflict closer to central Ukraine, further complicating the country’s defense.

According to Moscow’s Defense Ministry, in the past month Russian forces have seized over 300 square kilometers of territory in eastern Ukraine.

North Koreans in combat?

The Russian advances threaten to impair Ukrainian forces’ access to key transportation routes in the area. If Pokrovsk falls, Russia could gain a strategic advantage and advance more easily towards Chasiv Yar, which is on higher ground and provides control over a larger area.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, at least 30 North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia have been killed or injured in the Kursk region of western Russia. There, Ukrainian forces are desperately trying to maintain a foothold under heavy pressure.

This is the first time Kiev has given such a detailed report on North Korean losses since Pyongyang began sending soldiers to support Moscow.

👀 The North Korean units have withdrawn to be manned due to significant losses at the front.

On December 14 and 15, the North Korean units attempted to storm the positions of Ukrainian defenders.#NorthKorea #Russia #UkraineRussiaWarhttps://t.co/Gjsbv8MHKZ

— Militarnyi (@militarnyi) December 16, 2024

Russian reports: Patriot systems destroyed

Ukraine’s defense leadership has responded to recent developments by replacing General Oleksandr Lutsenko with General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy as commander of the operational and tactical command in Donetsk.

Lutsenko has long been criticized by Ukrainian military bloggers and politicians for his failure to stop the advance of Russian forces.

Meanwhile, Moscow claims that Russian air forces and artillery groups have destroyed four US Patriot air defense systems, including a combat command vehicle, an AN/MPQ-65 radar station and four firing platforms. The data is reported by the Russian state channel RT, among others.

The war has been further intensified by Ukraine’s use of US ATACMS missiles against Russian targets, which the Biden administration authorized last month.

More and more Ukrainian soldiers are deserting or avoiding conscription to escape the protracted war with Russia. According to data from the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office, more cases of desertion have been reported in 2024 than in the previous two years of war.

The lack of rotation and the absence of reinforcements are said to be key factors behind the trend.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj recently admitted in an interview with Ukrainian Telemarathon, a televised fundraising event that runs for many hours a day and aims to raise money for a charitable, political or other cause, that the number of deserters in Ukraine’s military increased sharply in 2024.

In particular, the number of desertions escalated during the spring and summer.

– AWOL cases increased in 2024, but since September or October it has decreased. A long war is a long war. Our people are persevering, and people are getting tired. They are getting tired everywhere, Zelenskyj admitted during the call.

NATO-trained French brigade hit hard

According to Newsweek magazine, Ukrainian authorities have launched more than 100,000 prosecutions of desertion since the war began in February 2022. In 2024, more than 60,000 cases have reportedly been registered up to October.

In several registered cases, soldiers are leaving their positions without permission, for reasons such as lack of rotation and an increasingly tense war situation. Factors that have made desertion the only option for many, reports the Financial Times.

Ukraine has recently launched a review of the French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Brigade, following allegations of desertion, mismanagement and poor leadership.

Reports suggest that more than 1 700 soldiers have deserted from the brigade, leading to organizational chaos and raising questions about military governance in the region.

At the same time, at least 50 soldiers are reported to have already escaped during training in France. An investigation is now underway to clarify the extent and causes of the problems.

Ukraine probes French-trained 155th “Anne of Kyiv” Brigade for alleged desertion, mismanagement, and poor command. Claims of 1,700+ AWOL soldiers and organizational chaos raise questions about military leadership. Investigation ongoing.#France #BrusselsMorning #WarInUkraine pic.twitter.com/KUDxtpylU8

— Brussels Morning Newspaper (@BrusselsMorning) January 4, 2025

Reinforcements are delayed

The Ukrainian government has tried to counter the problem by decriminalizing first-time desertions, provided that soldiers return to duty before 1 January 2025. At the same time, the age of mobilization has been lowered to 25 and penalties for avoiding conscription have been increased.

Despite this, there are widespread reports of problems in attracting new recruits. Video clips on social media show military personnel conducting drafts at bus stops, storming workplaces and knocking on doors in residential areas – further reinforcing resistance to mobilization.

Zelensky says the lack of reserves is a contributing factor to Russia’s advance.

– There are not many reserves. Why? Because not everything arrived to supply the reserves.

According to Dmytro Lytvyn, Ukraine’s presidential office and communications adviser, delays in the delivery of weapons and equipment have further complicated the situation.

– We cannot compensate for our partners’ delays in decision-making and supply chains with the lives of our soldiers and of the youngest of our guys, an unnamed source in the Ukrainian presidential office told Reuters.

Video shows forced mobilization & women trying to stop it in my native Lutsk in Western Ukraine. 3 mobilized men from my neighborhood were killed & 4 are missing in Russia-Ukraine war. Cities, towns & villages there are nearly empty of men because they are snatched, in hiding or… pic.twitter.com/1VU73H2VrT

— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) January 4, 2025

Far-reaching consequences

According to the Associated Press, desertion was one of the main reasons for the fall of the Ukrainian fortress of Vuhledar in October.

– It is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people, commented what is said to be an anonymous officer of Ukraine’s 72nd brigade.

In 2024, Russia has made significant advances in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of Avdiivka – a city of great strategic importance that has long served as a line of defense for Ukrainian forces.

Meanwhile, Russian forces are now threatening Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub for transportation and military supplies.

As both sides struggle to fill their ranks, the US has called on Ukraine to further lower the age of mobilization to 18, a proposal that has faced strong criticism.

Uncertain future

It remains to be seen how political developments in the outside world will affect the situation in Ukraine. Especially given US President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to change US policy on Ukraine.

Trump has stated, among other things, that he plans to reduce military aid to Ukraine and “end the conflict in one day”, a statement that has raised questions about the future of US engagement in the region.