Friday, January 17, 2025

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Intelligence chiefs: “International world order under threat”

The new cold war

Published 10 September 2024
– By Editorial Staff
William Burns (CIA) and Richard Moore (MI6).

The international world order is under “threat in a way we haven’t seen since the cold war”, the heads of Britain’s MI6 and the US CIA have claimed in a rare joint statement.

The statement, published in the Financial Times, highlights the war in Ukraine, alleged Russian sabotage campaigns in Europe and a growing“intelligence and geopolitical challenge” from China as key areas of concern.

This is the first time that the heads of the two intelligence services, Sir Richard Moore and William Burns, have issued a joint statement in a newspaper article. In the article, they warn that the international order – which they say is a “balanced system that has led to relative peace and stability and delivered rising living standards, opportunities and prosperity” – is now under serious threat.

“The international world order is under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War”, the two executives write in the Financial Times.

 

“Putin’s a bully”

The Ukraine war is seen as one of the biggest threats to the world order and part of a “wider pattern” of Russia trying to influence the situation in Europe through “cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation”.

In an interview during the FT Weekend Festival in London, the close cooperation between the US and British intelligence services was highlighted. Burns stressed the importance of Ukraine’s recent “military successes”, but warned that these victories do not necessarily mean that Putin’s grip on power in Russia is weakening.

While Mr Burns views Ukraine’s recent seizure of Russian territory in the Kursk region as a “significant tactical victory”, he sees no evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is weakening.

According to Burns, there was a “real risk” in 2022 that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in response to “its setbacks in the war”. But the CIA chief said the West should not be deterred by the threat of nuclear escalation.

– Putin’s a bully. He’s going to continue to sabre rattle from time to time, he argued, but stressed that such threats should not be allowed to have a deterrent effect on continued support for Ukraine.

Russian intelligence services “feral

Moore also described how Russian intelligence services have used alleged “criminal elements” to carry out sabotage operations in Europe, which he said is a sign of desperation.

– Russian intelligence services have gone a bit feral in some of their behaviour, he said, warning that even amateurish attempts can be dangerous.

China and the Middle East

Moore and Burns went on to say that in addition to the Ukraine war, China’s growing influence poses one of the biggest intelligence challenges of the century.

They described how their respective organizations have reorganized to better address this priority and how they are actively working to “counter Russia’s campaigns of sabotage and disinformation in Europe”, as well as pushing for de-escalation and a ceasefire in the Middle East.

– This is ultimately a question of political will, said Mr. Burns, who has been centrally involved in pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

In the interview, Moore and Burns were careful to point out how MI6 and the CIA had “warn the international community” about the “Russian invasion” by publishing intelligence information.

– There is no doubt that the international world order – the balanced system that has brought relative peace and stability and increased living standards, opportunity and prosperity – is under threat in a way that we have not seen since the Cold War, Sir Richard Moore and William Burns concluded the joint statement.

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Swedish MEP wants to “defeat” the Kremlin

The new cold war

Published yesterday 8:52
– By Editorial Staff
Emma Wiesner is one of many Swedish leaders who have recently started using increasingly aggressive rhetoric.

In a short period of time, the rhetoric of Swedish leaders has become increasingly belligerent and aggressive, while diplomacy and dialogue are rarely put forward as a viable option.

Emma Wiesner, MEP for the Center Party, is one of those accused of fueling the conflict, openly posting on social media about how “we” should “defeat” the Kremlin.

The fact that Swedish politicians’ attitude towards Russia has become even more hostile in recent months was made abundantly clear at Folk och Försvar’s national conference in Sälen this past weekend. At the conference, Ulf Kristersson declared that Sweden is certainly not currently at war but emphasized that “there is no peace either”.

The Swedish Minister of Defense, Pål Jonson, gave a similar message, declaring that supporting Kiev in the war was no longer a “choice”  but a “duty”.

– This is a war with profound global consequences that further weakens the rules-based world order… We must assume that Russia will pose a very serious threat to us and our allies for the foreseeable future, he said.

Emma Wiesner of the Center Party is one of those who has joined the war rhetoric and believes that the Russian leadership must be defeated.

It is completely unreasonable that Russian ships transporting Putin’s gas through the Arctic are given maintenance in EU ports. It is high time to extend sanctions to Russian LNG – we cannot defeat the Kremlin regime until we cut off the flow of money to the war chest”, she writes on X.

“Ukraine’s cause is ours”

However, it is not clear how and at what cost the Kremlin will be defeated or what role Sweden will play in this, and critics point out that sanctions against Russia have so far not produced the desired results.

You seem angry, but it won’t help you ‘defeat the regime in the Kremlin’, the only thing that can happen with your advice is that we dig ourselves even deeper into economic misery in Europe. But of course, as an MEP, you’re not exactly in the same boat as the rest of us”, commented one annoyed user.

Wiesner has previously declared that “Ukraine’s cause is ours” and that a Russian victory on the battlefield cannot be accepted under any circumstances as it would lead to a “fundamentally different Europe” than today.

Swedish Armed Forces unveil drone swarms: “Can be as many as needed”

The new cold war

Published 15 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
The drones are described as "trucks" that can carry both weapons and cameras.

The Swedish Armed Forces have been working on a new drone project over the past year, under great secrecy, together with weapons manufacturer Saab, where large swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles will be used in military operations.

–They can be as many as needed – thousands, if desired, says Saab CEO Micael Johansson

The main focus has been on developing new software that is said to enable the drones to form swarms and perform tasks almost automatically, without any operator having to control each individual aircraft in detail.

It’s not about piloting drones, you give them a mission on an iPad or mobile phone, then the drone swarm goes out and does this, the Saab top executive told TT during a press conference, explaining that a soldier can learn the system in a few days.

A possible drone mission could be to monitor a road by flying over it and transmitting images or video from the site, while scouting for enemies that the drones can also identify. By using hundreds or thousands of drones, very large areas can be monitored in this way, and if a few drones are disrupted, this also has little impact.

Although this has not been part of the project so far, it is also possible that in the future the drones will be armed and used to attack enemy forces.

You can update this software and do amazing things in the long run, says Micael Johansson.

Should not make their own decisions

According to Army Chief of Staff Jonny Lindfors, the drones should be considered “trucks” and it is up to the decision-makers to decide what cargo they should carry.

– But the basic principle that still applies is that in an armed operation there should be a human being making the decisions, he says.

Swedish soldiers have already started training with the new system and it will also be used in the NATO exercise Arctic Strike in March. The Swedish Armed Forces are also in the process of acquiring tens of thousands of drones, but they won’t say how much the new system will cost.

Sweden’s Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M) is careful to point out, however, that a project of this kind usually takes about five years to complete and that it is “uniquely fast” that the software has been developed in just one year.

EU imports of Russian liquefied natural gas reach record levels

The new cold war

Published 14 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Russian LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie.

Despite EU sanctions and stated ambitions to sharply reduce imports of Russian fossil fuels, Europe still imported record amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2024.

According to experts, there is a logical reason for the increase Russian gas is simply much cheaper than its competitors.

Data from Rystad Energy shows that 17.8 million tons of Russian LNG were delivered to European ports last year, an increase of over 2 million tons compared to the previous year.

Despite a significant drop in piped gas imports from Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine and the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, the EU continued to purchase record amounts of the country’s LNG. This has been possible as the chilled fuel has been only partially covered by the sanctions imposed by Union member states.

The energy analyst firm released the data shortly after Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory to the EU. Kiev opted to scrap a five-year transit agreement with Russian energy giant Gazprom at the end of 2024, halting the flow of natural gas from Russia to Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy and Moldova.

Russian LNG deliveries to the EU not only increased but reached “record levels”, according to Jan-Eric Fahnrich, gas analyst at Rystad Energy. He states that Russia surpassed Qatar as the bloc’s second-largest supplier of LNG in 2024, after the United States.

According to Fahnrich, the EU bought 49.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas through pipelines last year, and another 24.2 billion cubic meters of LNG, some of which was re-exported to other countries.

“Fairly simple”

Data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) show slightly lower figures, but even these reflect an overall trend of sharply increasing Russian LNG exports. According to Crea, EU imports of Russian LNG increased by 14% year-on-year in 2024 to 17.5 million tons and were worth €7.32 billion.

– The reason for the rise is fairly simple. Russian LNG is offered at a discount to alternative suppliers. With no sanctions imposed on the commodity, companies are operating in their own self-interest and buying increasing quantities of gas from the cheapest supplier, explains Crea’s Russia analyst Vaibhav Raghunandan.

The latest estimates significantly outpace recent projections by Bloomberg, which earlier this week said LNG deliveries from Russia to the EU had risen to 15.5 million tons by 2024 compared to 2020, when the EU imported about 10.5 million tons of the fuel.

Trump plans meeting with Putin: “We are setting it up”

The new cold war

Published 13 January 2025
– By Editorial Staff
Putin and Trump during their meeting in Helsinki in 2018.

US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is now being arranged.

– He wants to meet, and we’re setting it up, Trump said at a meeting of Republican governors in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

Trump described the war in Ukraine as “a bloody mess ” and expressed his intention to end the conflict. During his election campaign, he promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, but has recently conceded that a six-month period is a more realistic timeframe.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also confirms that the Russian president’s line has been firmly established that he is open to talks with Trump and that there are no preconditions for such a meeting.

– The president has repeatedly stated his openness to contact with international leaders, including the U.S. president, including Donald Trump, said Peskov.

Trump’s planned meeting with Putin has raised concerns in Kiev, where there are fears that US military support could be reduced and Ukraine could be pushed into an unfavorable peace deal.