Policymakers, analysts and experts alike have concluded that Ukraine cannot continue the war much longer because it is running out of trained soldiers.
The extent of Ukrainian losses has not been made public, but estimates by the UK’s The Economist put the figure at around 500,000 soldiers either killed or so badly injured that they cannot continue fighting.
Based on leaked or published intelligence reports, statements by defense officials and researchers, and open sources, the estimates suggest that up to 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the war – and another 400,000 seriously injured.
If accurate, this means that almost one in 20 Ukrainian men of fighting age has been killed since February 2022.
As neither Ukraine nor Russia comment on their own losses, it is difficult to get clarity on the real death toll, and it should be added that figures of 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed are not new but have been circulating in various contexts since the end of 2022 – which is why the number of soldiers killed may also be significantly higher than The Economist’s estimate.
Estimates vary widely
Already in November 2022, for example, EU leader Ursula von der Leyen was harshly criticized by the leadership in Kiev and its allies after she said in a filmed speech that 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed at the time – a statement that was then cut.
As for Russian casualties, the situation is similar, with different sources giving different estimates ranging from 350,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded to over 750,000.
Critics have also pointed out that the information on Russian losses often comes from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense or the United States, which has a vested interest in exaggerating the losses of the opposing side, and that it is thus also very difficult to assess the truth.
