Tuesday, January 14, 2025

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Finnish military leaders want to re-militarize the Åland Islands

The new cold war

Published 19 April 2023
– By Editorial Staff
Pekka Toveri wants to see the militarization of Åland, despite its internationally demilitarized status. On the right, the harbor in the central town of Mariehamn.

Up to half of the candidates in the parliamentary elections as well as former top military officers in Finland have expressed a desire to abolish the special international status of the autonomous Åland Islands as a demilitarized zone.

However, the statements are simultaneously being dismissed by experts in international law and also by Åland’s experts in the field.

If it should ever become relevant, there must first be an initiative from the government, which must then be dealt with internationally, says Roger Nordlund, former speaker of the Ålandic parliament and Chairman of the Åland Islands Peace Institute.

Before the parliamentary elections in Finland in early April, almost half of the candidates in the Finnish state channel Yle’s election compass stated that they wanted to abolish the demilitarized status of Åland. Among those is former General Pekka Toveri, the Defence Forces’ Chief of Intelligence for 2019-2020, who was also elected to parliament for the right-wing National Coalition Party, which is now in the process of forming a new government.

Russia’s warfare in Ukraine, a combination of Stalinist terror and looting, has shown that it does not shy away from brutal and criminal methods. Therefore, my opinion on abolishing demilitarization has been further strengthened in the past year, Toveri tells the Finnish newspaper Hufvudstadsbladet.

Ex-colonel Kjell Törner, commander of the Uusimaa Brigade 2014-2017, also expresses a desire to abolish the demilitarization, while the former commander of the Finnish Defence Forces, General Jarmo Lindberg, partly agrees.

In this situation, when Finland’s security policy is in great upheaval, I believe that all aspects that promote the country’s security should be openly reviewed and discussed, Lindberg tells Hufvudstadsbladet.

The Åland Islands Peace Institute, which focuses on peace research based on Åland’s special international status, expresses itself in diplomatic terms about the demands for re-militarization of Åland. The institute’s chairman Roger Nordlund, former Åland head of government and speaker of the Åland parliament, tells the public radio Ålands Radio that, he is not surprised by the call from Finnish politicians to militarize Åland in light of the general change in public opinion over the past year.

We have to think about the environment we are living in right now with the Ukraine war and the enormous change in the Finns’ view of NATO, for example, from a minority in favor of NATO membership that in a short time changed to a strong majority in favor of Finland joining NATO. I think these things are somewhat connected, says Nordlund.

Roger Nordlund on the left together with Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin and Åland’s Vice President Katrin Sjögren during Marin’s visit to Åland in March. Photo: Government of Finland/CC BY 2.0

To abolish demilitarization, Finland would have to notify all ten states of the 1921 Convention on Åland, as well as Russia. However, given the international law surrounding Åland’s status, Roger Nordlund does not believe that it is possible in practice to re-militarize Åland.

In peacetime, I think it is almost impossible to remilitarize Åland, but if it should ever become relevant, there must first be an initiative from the government, which must then be dealt with internationally. Then you have to remember that Russia is also a party to this, and you probably want to avoid that discussion as long as possible, he says.

International law expert Ove Bring describes demands to change Åland’s status as “unrealistic” and says that there are no signs that NATO will demand the militarization of the islands in connection with Finland’s entry into the military alliance.

There are no such signals at all, and the Finnish government has reminded NATO that Åland is demilitarized, says Bring in a comment to the Swedish newspaper DN.

Painting of the negotiations on the Åland issue at the League of Nations in Geneva in 1921.

Facts: Demilitarization of Åland

Åland's demilitarization and autonomy is the result of a conflict between Sweden and Finland that was resolved diplomatically in 1921 in the predecessor of the United Nations - the League of Nations - a solution that later became known as the Åland Model. The background was Finland's recent independence from Russia in 1917 and the so-called Åland Movement, which worked for Åland's accession to Sweden, something that was also seen as desirable by Sweden, primarily for military strategic reasons, as the islands are situated very close to Stockholm.

Åland became an autonomous part of Finland, with international guarantees from major powers such as Britain, France and Russia to preserve its Swedish language and culture. The demilitarization of Åland after the Crimean War in 1856 was also consolidated as a guarantee to Sweden that there would be no military activity or fortifications on the islands.

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EU imports of Russian liquefied natural gas reach record levels

The new cold war

Published today 9:31
– By Editorial Staff
Russian LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie.

Despite EU sanctions and stated ambitions to sharply reduce imports of Russian fossil fuels, Europe still imported record amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2024.

According to experts, there is a logical reason for the increase Russian gas is simply much cheaper than its competitors.

Data from Rystad Energy shows that 17.8 million tons of Russian LNG were delivered to European ports last year, an increase of over 2 million tons compared to the previous year.

Despite a significant drop in piped gas imports from Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine and the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, the EU continued to purchase record amounts of the country’s LNG. This has been possible as the chilled fuel has been only partially covered by the sanctions imposed by Union member states.

The energy analyst firm released the data shortly after Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas through its territory to the EU. Kiev opted to scrap a five-year transit agreement with Russian energy giant Gazprom at the end of 2024, halting the flow of natural gas from Russia to Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Italy and Moldova.

Russian LNG deliveries to the EU not only increased but reached “record levels”, according to Jan-Eric Fahnrich, gas analyst at Rystad Energy. He states that Russia surpassed Qatar as the bloc’s second-largest supplier of LNG in 2024, after the United States.

According to Fahnrich, the EU bought 49.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas through pipelines last year, and another 24.2 billion cubic meters of LNG, some of which was re-exported to other countries.

“Fairly simple”

Data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) show slightly lower figures, but even these reflect an overall trend of sharply increasing Russian LNG exports. According to Crea, EU imports of Russian LNG increased by 14% year-on-year in 2024 to 17.5 million tons and were worth €7.32 billion.

– The reason for the rise is fairly simple. Russian LNG is offered at a discount to alternative suppliers. With no sanctions imposed on the commodity, companies are operating in their own self-interest and buying increasing quantities of gas from the cheapest supplier, explains Crea’s Russia analyst Vaibhav Raghunandan.

The latest estimates significantly outpace recent projections by Bloomberg, which earlier this week said LNG deliveries from Russia to the EU had risen to 15.5 million tons by 2024 compared to 2020, when the EU imported about 10.5 million tons of the fuel.

Trump plans meeting with Putin: “We are setting it up”

The new cold war

Published yesterday 12:16
– By Editorial Staff
Putin and Trump during their meeting in Helsinki in 2018.

US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is now being arranged.

– He wants to meet, and we’re setting it up, Trump said at a meeting of Republican governors in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

Trump described the war in Ukraine as “a bloody mess ” and expressed his intention to end the conflict. During his election campaign, he promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, but has recently conceded that a six-month period is a more realistic timeframe.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also confirms that the Russian president’s line has been firmly established that he is open to talks with Trump and that there are no preconditions for such a meeting.

– The president has repeatedly stated his openness to contact with international leaders, including the U.S. president, including Donald Trump, said Peskov.

Trump’s planned meeting with Putin has raised concerns in Kiev, where there are fears that US military support could be reduced and Ukraine could be pushed into an unfavorable peace deal.

Swedish PM: “Must prepare for war if we want peace”

Sweden-NATO-relationship

Published yesterday 10:30
– By Editorial Staff
Ulf Kristersson is very happy with membership of the US-led NATO military alliance.

Sweden’s prime minister proclaims that Sweden is certainly not at war at the moment but that the Swedish people should not believe that there is any real peace either.

– Let’s plan for the worst, so we can continue to hope for the best, declares Ulf Kristersson, and calls for continued escalation and rearmament.

During this year’s edition of Folk och Försvar’s national conference, those in power gathered in Sälen to discuss issues related to Sweden’s defense and security policy. This year, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also took part, and in his speech he focused on trying to explain how the government actually views Sweden’s current defense policy status.

– Sweden is not at war. But neither is there peace, the Prime Minister emphasized.

– Real peace requires freedom and that there are no serious conflicts between countries. But we and our neighbors are exposed to hybrid attacks, which are not carried out with robots and soldiers, but with computers, money, disinformation and the risk of sabotage, Kristersson further argued.

“Take this seriously”

In March, it will be one year since Sweden joined the US-led NATO alliance, and the Prime Minister was very proud when he described how Swedish aircraft already contribute to NATO’s airspace surveillance, how 600 Swedish soldiers are on their way to Latvia and how Sweden is ready to contribute to NATO’s naval forces as well.

– It is an asset for Sweden in NATO that support for our membership is so strong and broad. Politically, but also among the population. It is an expression that we live in serious times. But also a sign that Sweden has changed.

Kristersson believes that Sweden has previously been “a somewhat naive idealist on the sidelines” but has now become much wiser and has become “a realist at the center of events“.

According to the Moderate leader, Sweden and other countries are not being subjected to conventional warfare instead, he believes it is a “proxy war” where, for example, Iran is accused of hiring gang criminals to commit acts of violence in Sweden and where Russia is allegedly “undermining democratic elections” in European countries.

– So take this seriously. I and the government take it seriously, he admonished.

“It’s all about priorities”

There do not seem to be any plans to improve relations with Russia and promote de-escalation through dialogue and diplomacy instead, the focus is on deterrence and continued rearmament.

– The Russian threat is by all accounts a long-term one. So must our defense be… It’s all about priorities. We can afford to defend our freedom – but we cannot afford to lose our freedom, he said.

The Prime Minister also stressed that Sweden “is not only a place of freedom and self-realization – but also of responsibility and self-sacrifice” and paid tribute to the young Swedes who “do their duty” by joining the Swedish army.

– Now it is a new era once again. And it doesn’t have to be a pre-war era, but as is well known, those who want peace must be prepared for war.

Ulf Kristersson Anthony Blinken
Kristersson and outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Photo: U.S. Department of State/Public Domain

“Let’s plan for the worst”

He says that today, just as in the Cold War days, the struggle is between “democracy and dictatorship“, and although he claims that he and his party do not want a war, he says it is nevertheless of the utmost importance to consolidate, arm and increase militarization if one were to happen.

– We won and the dictatorship lost. There is no law of nature that makes it always so. But the free world has done it before and we can do it again. Let’s plan for the worst, so we can continue to hope for the best, he concluded.

The Nordic Times also highlighted Folk och Försvar’s national conference 2024, where the focus was on Sweden’s entry into NATO and alleged domestic and foreign threats to the country.

NATO increases military presence in the Baltic Sea

The new cold war

Published 30 December 2024
– By Editorial Staff
Ships and aircraft from the NATO exercise Steadfast Defender 24 earlier this year.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announces that the US-led alliance will immediately increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea.

The decision comes after the NATO chief met with the Finnish president over what he described as “suspected sabotage” of underwater cables.

Spoke with Alexander Stubb about the ongoing Finnish-led investigation into possible sabotage of undersea cables. I expressed my full solidarity and support. NATO will enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea”, declares Rutte on X.

Earlier on Friday, the Estonian military announced that it had “launched an operation” to protect a cable (Estlink 1) that connects Estonia to the Finnish electricity grid, reports TT.

We decided last night to launch an operation early this morning, during which the Estonian Navy ship Raju has already sailed out to protect Estlink, said Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur in a radio interview.

The background is that on Christmas Day, the Finnish network operator, Fingrid, reported that it had lost contact with Estlink 2 and shortly afterwards there were also reports of damage to communication cables between Estonia and Finland.

Accusing Russia

The tanker Eagle S, flying the Cook Islands flag, is alleged to have caused the damage with its anchor, and although it is not yet established whether the damage was caused by mistake or sabotage, accusations are already being made against “Russia’s shadow fleet”.

– There is reason to believe that this is organized by Russia. It fits into a pattern of Russian hybrid threats to NATO countries taking on a more physical dimension. There are more and more sabotage actions against critical infrastructure of great importance to the West, says Tormod Heier, a professor at the Norwegian Defense University, without presenting any evidence for his hypothesis.

Even when the Nordstream 1 and 2 gas pipelines were attacked and destroyed in September 2022, Russia was quickly accused by Western politicians and establishment media of being behind the attack.

However, according to award-winning journalist Seymour Hersh , it was the United States, along with Norway, that blew up the pipelines, and the NATO exercise Baltops was used as a cover for Norwegian and American dive teams to plant the bombs off Bornholm.