According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Russian economy is expected to grow significantly faster than major Western economies such as the US, UK, France and Germany in 2024. This is despite years of Western sanctions aimed at crushing Russia’s economy.
Last week, the IMF upgraded its growth forecast for the Russian economy and now expects the country’s GDP to grow by 3.2% this year, up from its previous forecast of 2.6%.
In comparison, Russia is expected to grow faster than the US (2.7%), UK (0.5%), France (0.7%) and Germany (0.2%), and the Russian Finance Ministry expects even stronger growth – 3.6%, the same as last year.
Western politicians and media have often claimed that sanctions are crushing the Russian economy, while other observers have noted that the impact of sanctions has been limited, as Russia has quickly made an economic turnaround, compensating for lost revenues from Europe by increasing trade and cooperation with Asia.
Alfred Kammer, the IMF’s European chairman, agrees, saying the Russian economy has been resilient.
– What we have been forecasting for Russia is actually growth this year, and we also have seen quite strong growth last year, that was explained by economic activity that has remained strong because oil export volumes remained while prices were high, the analyst said.
He notes that Russia has seen a recovery in consumption, growth in real wages and an increasingly strong labor market – while pointing out that much of the economic growth can be explained by an “investment boom” in state-owned companies, particularly in the security and defense sectors.
–There is not much support from the fiscal side, but it was there as well. Most of the fiscal support was lent to security and defense. So that explains also the upgrade of our numbers for 2023 for Russia and the growth outlook for this year.
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US President-elect Donald Trump has announced that a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is now being arranged.
– He wants to meet, and we’re setting it up, Trump said at a meeting of Republican governors in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
Trump described the war in Ukraine as “a bloody mess ” and expressed his intention to end the conflict. During his election campaign, he promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, but has recently conceded that a six-month period is a more realistic timeframe.
Trump says Putin wants a meeting and they’re setting one up.
If you cut through the noise, what this means is there will be peace with Ukraine soon.
That’s what America voted for, peace and our resources being used for Americans.pic.twitter.com/EgCFeoiSrf
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also confirms that the Russian president’s line has been firmly established that he is open to talks with Trump and that there are no preconditions for such a meeting.
– The president has repeatedly stated his openness to contact with international leaders, including the U.S. president, including Donald Trump, said Peskov.
Trump’s planned meeting with Putin has raised concerns in Kiev, where there are fears that US military support could be reduced and Ukraine could be pushed into an unfavorable peace deal.
Sweden’s prime minister proclaims that Sweden is certainly not at war at the moment – but that the Swedish people should not believe that there is any real peace either.
– Let’s plan for the worst, so we can continue to hope for the best, declares Ulf Kristersson, and calls for continued escalation and rearmament.
During this year’s edition of Folk och Försvar’s national conference, those in power gathered in Sälen to discuss issues related to Sweden’s defense and security policy. This year, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also took part, and in his speech he focused on trying to explain how the government actually views Sweden’s current defense policy status.
– Sweden is not at war.But neither is there peace, the Prime Minister emphasized.
– Real peace requires freedom and that there are no serious conflicts between countries.But we and our neighbors are exposed to hybrid attacks, which are not carried out with robots and soldiers, but with computers, money, disinformation and the risk of sabotage, Kristersson further argued.
“Take this seriously”
In March, it will be one year since Sweden joined the US-led NATO alliance, and the Prime Minister was very proud when he described how Swedish aircraft already contribute to NATO’s airspace surveillance, how 600 Swedish soldiers are on their way to Latvia – and how Sweden is ready to contribute to NATO’s naval forces as well.
– It is an asset for Sweden in NATO that support for our membership is so strong and broad.Politically, but also among the population.It is an expression that we live in serious times.But also a sign that Sweden has changed.
Kristersson believes that Sweden has previously been “a somewhat naive idealist on the sidelines”– but has now become much wiser and has become “a realist at the center of events“.
According to the Moderate leader, Sweden and other countries are not being subjected to conventional warfare – instead, he believes it is a “proxy war” where, for example, Iran is accused of hiring gang criminals to commit acts of violence in Sweden and where Russia is allegedly “undermining democratic elections” in European countries.
– So take this seriously.I and the government take it seriously, he admonished.
“It’s all about priorities”
There do not seem to be any plans to improve relations with Russia and promote de-escalation through dialogue and diplomacy – instead, the focus is on deterrence and continued rearmament.
– The Russian threat is by all accounts a long-term one.So must our defense be… It’s all about priorities.We can afford to defend our freedom – but we cannot afford to lose our freedom, he said.
The Prime Minister also stressed that Sweden “is not only a place of freedom and self-realization – but also of responsibility and self-sacrifice” and paid tribute to the young Swedes who “do their duty” by joining the Swedish army.
– Now it is a new era once again. And it doesn’t have to be a pre-war era, but as is well known, those who want peace must be prepared for war.
Kristersson and outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Photo: U.S. Department of State/Public Domain
“Let’s plan for the worst”
He says that today, just as in the Cold War days, the struggle is between “democracy and dictatorship“, and although he claims that he and his party do not want a war, he says it is nevertheless of the utmost importance to consolidate, arm and increase militarization if one were to happen.
– We won and the dictatorship lost.There is no law of nature that makes it always so.But the free world has done it before and we can do it again.Let’s plan for the worst, so we can continue to hope for the best, he concluded.
The Nordic Times also highlighted Folk och Försvar’s national conference 2024, where the focus was on Sweden’s entry into NATO and alleged domestic and foreign threats to the country.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announces that the US-led alliance will immediately increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea.
The decision comes after the NATO chief met with the Finnish president over what he described as “suspected sabotage” of underwater cables.
“Spoke with Alexander Stubb about the ongoing Finnish-led investigation into possible sabotage of undersea cables.I expressed my full solidarity and support.NATO will enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea”, declares Rutte on X.
Earlier on Friday, the Estonian military announced that it had “launched an operation” to protect a cable (Estlink 1) that connects Estonia to the Finnish electricity grid, reports TT.
Spoke w/ @alexstubb about the ongoing Finnish-led investigation into possible sabotage of undersea cables. I expressed my full solidarity and support. #NATO will enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea.
– We decided last night to launch an operation early this morning, during which the Estonian Navy ship Raju has already sailed out to protect Estlink, said Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur in a radio interview.
The background is that on Christmas Day, the Finnish network operator, Fingrid, reported that it had lost contact with Estlink 2 and shortly afterwards there were also reports of damage to communication cables between Estonia and Finland.
Accusing Russia
The tanker Eagle S, flying the Cook Islands flag, is alleged to have caused the damage with its anchor, and although it is not yet established whether the damage was caused by mistake or sabotage, accusations are already being made against “Russia’s shadow fleet”.
– There is reason to believe that this is organized by Russia.It fits into a pattern of Russian hybrid threats to NATO countries taking on a more physical dimension.There are more and more sabotage actions against critical infrastructure of great importance to the West, says Tormod Heier, a professor at the Norwegian Defense University, without presenting any evidence for his hypothesis.
Even when the Nordstream 1 and 2 gas pipelines were attacked and destroyed in September 2022, Russia was quickly accused by Western politicians and establishment media of being behind the attack.
However, according to award-winning journalist Seymour Hersh , it was the United States, along with Norway, that blew up the pipelines, and the NATO exercise Baltops was used as a cover for Norwegian and American dive teams to plant the bombs off Bornholm.
The Church of Sweden in Gothenburg has been instructed to prepare for the possibility of burying 30,000 fallen soldiers in a short period in the event of war or a “major disaster”.
Swedish leaders have recently tried to sell the message that Sweden is already at war with Russia – or at least that war may very soon become a reality.
Against this background, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap) has also urged Swedish churches and funeral directors to prepare and secure land to be able to bury a very large number of dead in a short time. And the Church of Sweden in Gothenburg is one of the actors that has been tasked by MSB to be ready to quickly solve 30,000 coffin burials as part of the Swedish crisis preparedness.
–We need to prepare to deal with fallen soldiers and it is quite new for us to start building preparedness for that now, says Katarina Evenseth from the Gothenburg Burial Society.
Must be able to be moved
– The biggest challenge for us, who are also looking for burial land in general, is to ensure that there is actually enough contingency land to match the recommendation that has come now with so many hectares, then we need to get rid of more burial land.
The Swedish Armed Forces estimate that at least 10 hectares of land need to be prepared for a “major disaster or war”, but it is still unclear exactly where the cemetery will be located.
–What is unique about war graves and soldiers’ graves is that they should also be able to be taken care of and eventually moved back to their home countries or hometowns when things are calm again, explains Evenseth.
